CS2 · resolved market
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x203b21869eabd4081806daf68f409d88846b8cd8976d40ef78552c9abfc9db12
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Spiritof Team Falcons, Spirit
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,269
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,570
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,269 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xdb85…152fbacked Team Falcons | 38c | 9,339$3,549 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,549.01 | 164 | 43.9%72 W · 92 L | -6.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Falcons | 36c | 7,847$2,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,824.88 | 98 | 55.1%54 W · 44 L | +8.3wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01e6…e7e0backed Spirit | 64c | 7,785$4,983 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,802.8 | 170 | 62.9%107 W · 63 L | +7.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3f…8e2bbacked Spirit | 62c | 4,000$2,480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,520 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82d2…beeabacked Spirit | 62c | 3,580$2,220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,360.4 | 1,011 | 52.3%529 W · 482 L | +27.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6401…f240backed Team Falcons | 36c | 1,364$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$491.08 | 350 | 54.6%191 W · 159 L | +17.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91c5…c7bbbacked Spirit | 63c | 792.97$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.97 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43b…f955backed Spirit | 64c | 781.25$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27ea…863dbacked Spirit | 62c | 600$372 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228 | 65 | 40%26 W · 39 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e19…d2b0backed Spirit | 80c | 531.18$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.24 | 527 | 50.7%267 W · 260 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb98a…914bbacked Spirit | 62c | 354.16$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.58 | 114 | 46.5%53 W · 61 L | -6.9wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb87…a45dbacked Spirit | 62c | 346.81$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.79 | 304 | 50.7%154 W · 150 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…029cbacked Team Falcons | 37c | 341.27$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.27 | 924 | 56.8%525 W · 399 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb775…36f5backed Spirit | 63c | 334.92$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.92 | 227 | 57.3%130 W · 97 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3621…3c9fbacked Spirit | 62c | 317.46$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.63 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -3.3wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Team Falcons | 39c | 247.37$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.47 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a3…450abacked Spirit | 63c | 209.98$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.69 | 303 | 49.8%151 W · 152 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Team Falcons | 37c | 177.05$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.92 | 1,650 | 32.7%540 W · 1,110 L | -49.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4156…997ebacked Spirit | 80c | 112.84$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.57 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14c8…c192backed Team Falcons | 42c | 93.35$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 100 | 52%52 W · 48 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc5ff…abd0backed Spirit | 61c | 80.41$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 386 | 50.8%196 W · 190 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddbc…28c3backed Spirit | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -3.5wins | -0.22per pick | 65cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Team Falcons | 37c | 68.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.07 | 371 | 49.6%184 W · 187 L | +4.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6df3…b8bebacked Spirit | 62c | 53.69$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.4 | 212 | 54.2%115 W · 97 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1bd…b053backed Team Falcons | 39c | 49.77$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Spirit | 62c | 47$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.86 | 271 | 56.8%154 W · 117 L | +13.2wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f1…dd82backed Spirit | 64c | 46.88$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.88 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x183b…b6e9backed Spirit | 65c | 37.99$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 320 | 54.4%174 W · 146 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Team Falcons | 48c | 36.35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 5,511 | 47%2,590 W · 2,921 L | +42.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24f5…98d2backed Team Falcons | 37c | 29$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 108 | 44.4%48 W · 60 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae75…e41cbacked Team Falcons | 73c | 27.53$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 93 | 66.7%62 W · 31 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa7f…e644backed Spirit | 74c | 20.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.26 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf88b…0ed2backed Spirit | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 233 | 54.5%127 W · 106 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b4…a38abacked Spirit | 64c | 18.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x082a…cc8abacked Spirit | 62c | 16.15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.14 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b25…10aabacked Spirit | 64c | 16.13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 850 | 54.4%462 W · 388 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5)this page
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major PlayoffsTeam Falcons won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5)Team Falcons won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5)Spirit won
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5)Spirit won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5)Team Falcons won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)Team Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.