CS2 · resolved market
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4bfcf43e9192bfd6facb62ec96bdd1e5722f24a76b2518d0f3753cf62dbab195
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- CS2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,794
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,092
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,794 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in CS2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in CS2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe738…df65backed Under | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$939.98 | 149 | 50.3%75 W · 74 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec54…c7b2backed Over | 53c | 1,528$810 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.32 | 61 | 47.5%29 W · 32 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked Under | 48c | 999.94$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.97 | 812 | 44.3%360 W · 452 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Under | 47c | 863.19$406 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405.7 | 882 | 42.3%373 W · 509 L | -13.0wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1eab…4822backed Over | 53c | 756.91$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.91 | 115 | 51.3%59 W · 56 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Over | 51c | 500$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245 | 138 | 44.2%61 W · 77 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6376…0d2abacked Under | 49c | 500$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 892 | 48%428 W · 464 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 47c | 317.3$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.13 | 99 | 52.5%52 W · 47 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb775…36f5backed Over | 53c | 209.43$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.43 | 227 | 57.3%130 W · 97 L | +10.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x68e9…845cbacked Over | 52c | 207.69$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.69 | 302 | 36.8%111 W · 191 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3537…3b51backed Over | 53c | 200$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94 | 53 | 60.4%32 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 54c | 195.64$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.97 | 2,309 | 45.1%1,041 W · 1,268 L | -62.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb010…3c99backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 17 | 76.5%13 W · 4 L | +4.5wins | +0.26per pick | 50cpaid | +56.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf055…02b5backed Over | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 120 | 43.3%52 W · 68 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71a5…b594backed Over | 50c | 176$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 179 | 46.4%83 W · 96 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Under | 50c | 176$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 379 | 49.3%187 W · 192 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5323…326abacked Over | 52c | 138.46$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.46 | 53 | 41.5%22 W · 31 L | -5.0wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -19%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec7…88b8backed Over | 52c | 96$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.08 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9af1…7d5abacked Over | 53c | 64.15$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.15 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd65c…ff8bbacked Under | 49c | 58.51$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.67 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1c…8c49backed Over | 52c | 57.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.17 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -5.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x04da…3a9fbacked Over | 53c | 50.94$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.94 | 111 | 59.5%66 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e24…ec07backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 84 | 41.7%35 W · 49 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbe2c…5e16backed Under | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x76ff…a353backed Over | 53c | 40$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.8 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60e9…8662backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 126 | 52.4%66 W · 60 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93e9…4d47backed Over | 52c | 38.46$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.46 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x265b…74dfbacked Under | 49c | 33.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 32 | 65.6%21 W · 11 L | +5.4wins | +0.17per pick | 49cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 2,467 | 24.6%606 W · 1,861 L | -318.3wins | -0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -51.8%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5f47…f611backed Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 81 | 59.3%48 W · 33 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd104…7c02backed Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec4f…996bbacked Over | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 52 | 59.6%31 W · 21 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb6e…6dc3backed Over | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 29 | 75.9%22 W · 7 L | +5.8wins | +0.20per pick | 56cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xb972…105abacked Over | 52c | 27.35$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.13 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf408…afe0backed Under | 47c | 27.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc313…6645backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 226 | 51.3%116 W · 110 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8487…c1dbbacked Over | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 480 | 52.3%251 W · 229 L | -20.9wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in CS2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 13 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5this page
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major PlayoffsTeam Falcons won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 WinnerTeam Falcons won
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 WinnerSpirit won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5)Team Falcons won
- Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Spirit (+3.5)Spirit won
- Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5)Spirit won
- Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Under won
- Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5)Team Falcons won
- Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5Over won
- Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Spirit (+1.5)Spirit won
- Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5)Team Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.