World Politics · resolved market
Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a30b048df59471f6b7cfd15780061e47c39ee2b0554be0e3c5804f43b18e2db
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,933
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 0c | 3,211$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 482 | 24.7%119 W · 363 L | -7.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…1480backed Yes | 1c | 2,132$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.57 | 293 | 9.2%27 W · 266 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 10cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,995$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 149 | 4.7%7 W · 142 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 5cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 1,719$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 1,431 | 10.1%145 W · 1,286 L | -4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9d84…1344backed Yes | 2c | 1,421$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.15 | 139 | 18%25 W · 114 L | -4.9wins | -0.03per pick | 21cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0ac3…ef53backed Yes | 7c | 1,228$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e4…06ccbacked Yes | 2c | 1,065$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 2c | 783.26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.11 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x75e7…9080backed Yes | 4c | 680$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.11 | 73 | 17.8%13 W · 60 L | -7.7wins | -0.11per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 4c | 500$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.84 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +6.0wins | +0.08per pick | 16cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85f8…2707backed Yes | 3c | 405.32$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 3c | 367$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed Yes | 7c | 243.9$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 457 | 23.2%106 W · 351 L | -15.8wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -35%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8d…5a27backed Yes | 8c | 200$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 125 | 6.4%8 W · 117 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8af…04e7backed No | 58c | 195$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 57cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4745…5916backed Yes | 8c | 170$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 107 | 41.1%44 W · 63 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb02e…25e5backed Yes | 8c | 150$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 27 | 7.4%2 W · 25 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x840e…cae3backed Yes | 42c | 120$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.4 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes | 16c | 90$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 47 | 27.7%13 W · 34 L | -6.0wins | -0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x17e5…3d19backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 190 | 43.7%83 W · 107 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be no new Prime Minister of France?this page
- Will Bernard Cazeneuve be the next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Will Bruno Retailleau be the next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Will Catherine Vautrin be the next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Will David Lisnard be the next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Will Gérald Darmanin be the next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Will Jean Castex be the next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon be the next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Will Jordan Bardella be the next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Will Laurent Wauquiez be the next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Will Pierre Moscovici be the next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Will Roland Lescure be the next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Will Sébastien Lecornu be the next Prime Minister of France?Yes won
- Will Valérie Pécresse be the next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Will Xavier Bertrand be the next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Will Yaël Braun-Pivet be the next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Will elections be called before a new Prime Minister is appointed?No won
- Will Éric Lombard be the next Prime Minister of France?No won
- Will Éric Zemmour be the next Prime Minister of France?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.