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World Politics · resolved market

Will elections be called before a new Prime Minister is appointed?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$31,790
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$30,988

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,790 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3a86…dea8backed Yes3c4,321$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.6348224.7%119 W · 363 L-7.6wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-25.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3d3…66ffbacked Yes22c2,403$531 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.44714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.9wins-0.13per pick27cpaid-77.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…d43fbacked No60c1,232$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$493.35757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid-14.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b0b…5e43backed Yes1c999.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-67.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x531c…06e6backed Yes31c664.38$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6590…ad78backed Yes5c660.23$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.513727%10 W · 27 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick24cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x355f…0df8backed Yes16c633$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.592913.8%4 W · 25 L-5.6wins-0.19per pick33cpaid-8.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x7250…5468backed No69c623.47$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.554641.3%19 W · 27 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-36.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe876…7346backed Yes34c580.38$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2001136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes5c568.88$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.841,43710.2%147 W · 1,290 L-4.1wins0.00per pick11cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x565b…b26abacked Yes38c529.41$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb9…7b80backed No71c500$355 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1459348.4%45 W · 48 L+8.1wins+0.09per pick40cpaid+29.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1018…7264backed No70c485.61$339 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1472650%13 W · 13 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes32c444.32$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.951,34444.3%595 W · 749 L-23.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1955…aef1backed No74c432.13$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.882642.3%11 W · 15 L+0.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x581d…b2e3backed No74c423.96$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.251650%8 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-26.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df1…b615backed No74c413.23$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.631100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2844…6709backed Yes19c380.25$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.6450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.17per pick33cpaid-2.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e35…1a6cbacked No72c349.56$251 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.6326240.1%105 W · 157 L+16.8wins+0.06per pick34cpaid+32.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ac3…ef53backed Yes14c313.36$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.6940%0 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes4c309.63$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1718216.5%30 W · 152 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick15cpaid-34.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xee21…e2febacked Yes38c300$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7bed…621cbacked Yes32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.72250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+18.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30d1…4525backed No75c300$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755538.2%21 W · 34 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick32cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9d84…1344backed No77c296.98$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.413918%25 W · 114 L-4.9wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-28.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2478…2e62backed No73c276.58$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.683737.8%14 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-16.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce69…3e08backed No66c264$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.76812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.1wins-0.26per pick39cpaid-81.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No77c252.2$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.589448.3%432 W · 462 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xea27…70aebacked Yes6c250.15$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7678…e5f0backed No75c250$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.54623.9%11 W · 35 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick25cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd907…e2febacked Yes6c240.16$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1750%0 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed Yes32c238.33$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.3457636.3%209 W · 367 L-27.2wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-28.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No77c225.89$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.2455334.5%191 W · 362 L-38.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes26c211.34$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4745021.1%95 W · 355 L-21.9wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x17e5…3d19backed No68c211.01$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6719043.7%83 W · 107 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1ecb…9f55backed No71c200$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-53%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed No77c194.41$149 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6611741%48 W · 69 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-24.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ac8…77cdbacked Yes30c181.52$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.2930433.6%102 W · 202 L+18.5wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+26.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xea00…f22ebacked Yes38c173.7$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.67333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x39bb…54b3backed No62c161.5$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.37540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick34cpaid-33.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae67…faf1backed No78c145$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.91266.7%8 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+24.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ef6…3259backed Yes24c139.46$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf42f…a6a7backed No70c133.22$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5319742.6%84 W · 113 L+7.3wins+0.04per pick39cpaid-5.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc39d…4891backed Yes9c125$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.252934.5%10 W · 19 L+3.6wins+0.12per pick22cpaid+131.6%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0b62…c75abacked Yes8c125$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.29per pick41cpaid-81.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc71e…7cc9backed Yes18c119.79$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.07475%3 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.49per pick26cpaid+272.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xad52…11acbacked Yes18c111.11$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205234.6%18 W · 34 L+4.1wins+0.08per pick27cpaid-17.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xccf1…20ccbacked Yes25c107.62$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.911331%35 W · 78 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xffe2…e0aabacked Yes48c104.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-37.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes10c104.01$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.181,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dd8…6cefbacked No58c101.01$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.13862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.22per pick40cpaid+117.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xdfaa…79a7backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020328.6%58 W · 145 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-29.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc3d…498abacked Yes20c100$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+19.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0523…e38bbacked Yes23c98$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.544037.5%15 W · 25 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb090…9a6ebacked Yes34c94.12$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-36.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2985…0d51backed Yes32c93.75$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-65.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9afd…3028backed No80c90$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.13759.5%22 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+10.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c67…8c6abacked Yes34c90$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd565…1094backed Yes25c90$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4919…33fbbacked Yes23c86.96$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201369.2%9 W · 4 L+3.3wins+0.26per pick44cpaid+83.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8db4…9c07backed No68c82.47$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.592846.4%13 W · 15 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-13.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc5e2…25f7backed No68c75$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.22per pick61cpaid+50.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8b2…7c84backed Yes26c65.53$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.144727.7%13 W · 34 L-6.0wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-42.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x527e…da55backed Yes32c62.5$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d35…2f44backed Yes33c60.61$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5a0d…c6bebacked No67c60.2$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.12941.4%12 W · 17 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9266…8423backed No72c54.26$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c03…12b2backed Yes48c45.94$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.881533.3%5 W · 10 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-34.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6b7a…5261backed No69c43.48$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked No78c41.61$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.26829.4%20 W · 48 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-32.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c14…08a5backed Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10520%1 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-35.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba1c…a1fabacked Yes25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe15e…d4f8backed No69c39.13$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe091…7621backed No54c36.76$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.763100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+49.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2bee…0b93backed No60c33.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.33862.5%5 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick62cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0168…ab3fbacked No59c30.51$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.51771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.28per pick44cpaid+66.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3516…366abacked Yes39c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9925…baa3backed No69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.99540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.22per pick62cpaid-42.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9218…51bebacked No69c28.99$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.99425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-63.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b83…e8fdbacked No77c28$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe947…7a45backed No71c22.68$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.5817044.1%75 W · 95 L-6.3wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-7.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d52…79e6backed Yes48c20.66$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x54f2…ec42backed Yes51c20$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-47.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2654…c2b2backed No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.4650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f50…1fb6backed No68c20$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.42272.7%16 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6548…9108backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.611354%61 W · 52 L+7.4wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3edd…4edfbacked No60c17$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.8540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick56cpaid-39.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 19 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.