La Liga · resolved market
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a6270fd8ed9bc5cb43167e3a8a45efd40a66db7d9f8651a8cbf2b7ec692f463
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $35,673
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,119
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $35,673 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x881b…9893backed Over | 27c | 13,508$3,695 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,695.43 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -76.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 74c | 5,941$4,410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,530.97 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x155d…2525backed Under | 73c | 2,000$1,460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 70cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 72c | 1,785$1,289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$496.73 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 26c | 1,500$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$389.99 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ee4…9f0cbacked Under | 73c | 1,370$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.86 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 71cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf9b6…896ebacked Under | 74c | 1,217$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$317.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Over | 28c | 599.99$167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.96 | 216 | 26.9%58 W · 158 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83d9…651bbacked Over | 12c | 520.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.46 | 601 | 47.9%288 W · 313 L | +50.5wins | +0.08per pick | 40cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 76c | 494.26$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.05 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 72c | 400$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$112 | 234 | 52.6%123 W · 111 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Under | 73c | 400$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 317 | 45.7%145 W · 172 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2496…50a5backed Over | 17c | 391.06$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.97 | 35 | 34.3%12 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Under | 76c | 293.27$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.38 | 691 | 42.5%294 W · 397 L | -21.4wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ae2…20a3backed Under | 75c | 266.13$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.13 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1e7d…4a9bbacked Over | 37c | 218.68$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 147 | 38.8%57 W · 90 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7205…3377backed Under | 72c | 211.24$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.15 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +1.7wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 73c | 205.89$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.6 | 532 | 46.1%245 W · 287 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6619…703ebacked Under | 73c | 205.48$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.48 | 64 | 78.1%50 W · 14 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb18c…df51backed Over | 25c | 202.2$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 62 | 43.5%27 W · 35 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bcf…dc5cbacked Over | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +80.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a1…bd21backed Under | 74c | 183.39$136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.68 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a4a…0561backed Over | 28c | 178.57$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5773…ac11backed Under | 72c | 168.14$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.08 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0283…e7d3backed Under | 73c | 166.77$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.03 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x65b6…8b4cbacked Over | 27c | 150.04$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 114 | 27.2%31 W · 83 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30de…1f9dbacked Under | 73c | 136.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.99 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed Under | 51c | 136.34$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.5 | 63 | 42.9%27 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88f5…828abacked Under | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6650…71b6backed Under | 76c | 131$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -44.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4215…f03abacked Over | 27c | 127.63$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.04 | 130 | 52.3%68 W · 62 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 15c | 122.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.7 | 1,655 | 43.8%725 W · 930 L | -22.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Over | 26c | 109$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.25 | 596 | 55.4%330 W · 266 L | +31.1wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad4…1bf2backed Over | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -64.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa237…d59abacked Under | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 34 | 64.7%22 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 26c | 96.85$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.18 | 193 | 44.6%86 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x656b…afbcbacked Over | 15c | 96.15$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32d6…844bbacked Under | 73c | 93$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.11 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43f9…d4e6backed Over | 20c | 85.56$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc758…8574backed Over | 26c | 75.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 195 | 44.1%86 W · 109 L | +13.7wins | +0.07per pick | 37cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 26c | 72.85$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.89 | 118 | 55.1%65 W · 53 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Over | 29c | 68.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 22c | 66.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.41 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2078…2d66backed Over | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3541…644bbacked Under | 73c | 54.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1817…5f80backed Over | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 35cpaid | -76%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x59cf…71dabacked Under | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.27per pick | 53cpaid | +35.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0095…42c1backed Under | 73c | 41.03$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.03 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 27c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0acd…db47backed Under | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.22per pick | 64cpaid | +36.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Under | 71c | 29.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 342 | 52%178 W · 164 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc27d…a3febacked Under | 72c | 27.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.63 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ef3…2cd8backed Under | 75c | 26.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.78 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Under | 80c | 25.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d4…6297backed Under | 77c | 25$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.85 | 44 | 61.4%27 W · 17 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 59c | 22.3$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.14 | 616 | 57.8%356 W · 260 L | +42.1wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed Under | 73c | 17.8$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.81 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 4.5this page
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. FC Barcelona: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 1.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 2.5Over won
- Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.