Mls · resolved market
Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5a9fa390b3cbdb4a365d124f8c9246fd3c6c16befbc3b210544569b207091d0f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles FCof Los Angeles FC, Los Angeles Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,049
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,859
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,049 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Los Angeles FC | 9c | 3,569$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,262.61 | 1,880 | 36.6%688 W · 1,192 L | -7.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec9…1e0cbacked Los Angeles FC | 10c | 2,880$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,591.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +150%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 70c | 2,575$1,808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,807.73 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d12…ccc3backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 23c | 872.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Los Angeles FC | 40c | 806.67$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$487 | 989 | 45.4%449 W · 540 L | -23.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Los Angeles FC | 9c | 651.08$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$592.48 | 714 | 43.7%312 W · 402 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Los Angeles Galaxy | 6c | 641.25$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 171 | 37.4%64 W · 107 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Los Angeles Galaxy | 20c | 564.88$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.13 | 304 | 44.1%134 W · 170 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x35b1…8962backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 66c | 317.65$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$209.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Los Angeles Galaxy | 9c | 282.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.98 | 1,009 | 46.2%466 W · 543 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 66c | 137.46$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.26 | 120 | 58.3%70 W · 50 L | +6.7wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28f7…404dbacked Los Angeles FC | 16c | 76.56$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.56 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Los Angeles FC | 15c | 75.37$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.42 | 820 | 44.5%365 W · 455 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Los Angeles FC | 71c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.57 | 802 | 49.8%399 W · 403 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbad…4f53backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 79c | 50.68$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ecf…75d2backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 72c | 47.44$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 28c | 44.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-2.5)this page
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC: 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC: Both Teams to Score in First HalfNo won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC: Los Angeles FC 1st Half O/U 1.5Over won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC: Los Angeles FC O/U 0.5Over won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC: Los Angeles FC O/U 1.5Over won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC: Los Angeles FC O/U 2.5Over won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC: Los Angeles Galaxy O/U 0.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC: Los Angeles Galaxy O/U 1.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC: Los Angeles Galaxy O/U 2.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 0.5Over won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 2.5Over won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Los Angeles Galaxy vs. Los Angeles FC: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles FC (-1.5)Los Angeles FC won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5)Los Angeles FC won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-2.5)Los Angeles FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.