NBA · resolved market
Spread: Lakers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ab1f852b8f5e78cb0078f4d1ddd05e513f604a75898d7306f36320d2a30154e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Lakersof Lakers, Nuggets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,282
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,008
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,282 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Lakers | 56c | 8,912$4,961 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,951.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb27…c56ebacked Nuggets | 44c | 7,555$3,324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,324.01 | 871 | 44.7%389 W · 482 L | +14.9wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Nuggets | 46c | 3,328$1,522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,522.22 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Nuggets | 45c | 880.18$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.08 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd382…8885backed Lakers | 55c | 691.82$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$311.32 | 37 | 73%27 W · 10 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe098…8ee2backed Lakers | 54c | 650$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$299 | 207 | 54.1%112 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Lakers | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Lakers | 54c | 438.01$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.48 | 184 | 38.6%71 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Nuggets | 44c | 399.98$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.99 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Nuggets | 47c | 344$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.68 | 219 | 37%81 W · 138 L | -15.9wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Lakers | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.78 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b4…de82backed Nuggets | 45c | 231.74$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.29 | 587 | 40%235 W · 352 L | +24.3wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd7c…6d35backed Lakers | 55c | 209.09$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.09 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Lakers | 53c | 193.4$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.34 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc43d…8928backed Lakers | 55c | 109.09$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.09 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | +4.0wins | +0.17per pick | 52cpaid | +35.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Lakers | 55c | 104$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.8 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Nuggets | 51c | 83.16$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.82 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Nuggets | 51c | 74.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a00…0c93backed Lakers | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.73 | 43 | 51.2%22 W · 21 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed Nuggets | 45c | 68.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.95 | 712 | 45.8%326 W · 386 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Lakers | 56c | 62.23$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.23 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…1e75backed Nuggets | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Lakers | 53c | 54.73$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.59 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Lakers | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc923…5f12backed Lakers | 55c | 36.36$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.36 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Lakers | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Lakers | 47c | 35$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.45 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Lakers | 56c | 34.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Lakers | 55c | 31.42$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.14 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…920fbacked Nuggets | 47c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Lakers | 51c | 29.06$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.19 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca8…ddddbacked Lakers | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed Nuggets | 43c | 25.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Lakers | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.37 | 390 | 41%160 W · 230 L | -32.8wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Lakers | 55c | 24.19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.89 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x96d9…05d5backed Lakers | 56c | 23.21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 197 | 48.2%95 W · 102 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)this page
- Aaron Gordon: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Lakers vs. NuggetsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Under won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.