NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3d1967d9646037f3a152a4648b09b3bd331e3e7d69aa5fa3cd34eb7e5888d094
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $60,863
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $61,532
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,863 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Under | 57c | 39,256$22,437 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16,818.48 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 42c | 18,743$7,962 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,962.17 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 44c | 18,113$8,050 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,050.11 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66cc…7135backed Under | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,350 | 212 | 50.5%107 W · 105 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 43c | 4,177$1,796 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,796.17 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…8237backed Over | 47c | 2,422$1,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,138.34 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f5a…8100backed Under | 53c | 2,422$1,284 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,138.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4278…0e92backed Under | 53c | 1,643$871 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$772 | 416 | 52.2%217 W · 199 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 43c | 1,400$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 43c | 1,140$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.2 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1733…1e15backed Over | 44c | 1,116$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.49 | 1,157 | 47.9%554 W · 603 L | -19.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 43c | 744.8$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.27 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Over | 43c | 580.26$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.52 | 184 | 38.6%71 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Over | 7c | 553.87$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 448 | 21.4%96 W · 352 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 43c | 547.44$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.46 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc568…ecb7backed Under | 57c | 524.56$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.56 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Under | 52c | 384.83$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.72 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7c…8964backed Under | 54c | 351.72$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.79 | 806 | 53.6%432 W · 374 L | +16.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 53c | 306$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.88 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under | 53c | 300.48$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.45 | 410 | 52%213 W · 197 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9ce…77eabacked Under | 51c | 300$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147 | 64 | 48.4%31 W · 33 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cbf…82abbacked Over | 47c | 297.87$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 169 | 45.6%77 W · 92 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Over | 47c | 288$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.36 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426f…e76bbacked Over | 47c | 283$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.01 | 176 | 44.9%79 W · 97 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Under | 56c | 250$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 45c | 236.36$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.59 | 1,264 | 45.8%579 W · 685 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 50c | 228.85$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.14 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Over | 43c | 228$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.28 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 42c | 218.52$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.52 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd77d…b01cbacked Over | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 269 | 56.1%151 W · 118 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 50c | 206.39$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.22 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 44c | 202.16$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.9 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c1c…9b07backed Over | 44c | 181.82$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Under | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a64…6769backed Over | 48c | 156.25$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 173 | 53.2%92 W · 81 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Under | 57c | 154.44$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.44 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d4a…2215backed Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 198 | 38.9%77 W · 121 L | -13.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe47b…1b4bbacked Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 357 | 39.8%142 W · 215 L | -25.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Over | 44c | 99.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3f3…9b44backed Over | 45c | 90$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +5.2wins | +0.23per pick | 42cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xd44d…389dbacked Under | 54c | 80.59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.39 | 413 | 54%223 W · 190 L | +3.7wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…9b73backed Under | 54c | 80$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.8 | 425 | 51.3%218 W · 207 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 57c | 78.43$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.09 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe881…1e75backed Over | 47c | 70$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 37 | 51.4%19 W · 18 L | +1.2wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 43c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.75 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 42c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked Under | 33c | 49.52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.18 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x78ad…45ccbacked Under | 47c | 49.29$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.12 | 83 | 61.4%51 W · 32 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 45c | 48.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d14…1eb4backed Under | 56c | 44.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.64 | 373 | 52%194 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dfd…920fbacked Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b54…ea13backed Under | 56c | 37.5$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 379 | 59.4%225 W · 154 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9371…3aecbacked Over | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…1bc7backed Under | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 45 | 62.2%28 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Over | 45c | 28.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.67 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9202…8ef9backed Under | 53c | 27.51$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.93 | 136 | 46.3%63 W · 73 L | -10.1wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3a56…387cbacked Over | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 888 | 45.7%406 W · 482 L | -12.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 47c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1,634 | 48.1%786 W · 848 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbff8…7073backed Over | 44c | 23.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 108 | 42.6%46 W · 62 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4485…912cbacked Over | 67c | 16.8$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5this page
- Aaron Gordon: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Lakers vs. NuggetsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Under won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.