NBA · resolved market
Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc481c0fbfab2bfdf564bbd1ef384f62458f87ffb97c12fe4dc8212db80b80351
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $72,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $71,652
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb8e6…d504backed Under | 50c | 49,756$24,962 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24,794.13 | 210 | 57.1%120 W · 90 L | +20.3wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 50c | 22,614$11,239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,238.89 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 11,408$5,711 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,711.14 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Over | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 461 | 45.6%210 W · 251 L | -6.7wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac0a…f89ebacked Under | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,080 | 382 | 51%195 W · 187 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 52c | 2,929$1,523 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,523.22 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a91…1769backed Over | 50c | 1,717$860 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$860 | 321 | 50.8%163 W · 158 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Over | 49c | 1,590$787 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$786.97 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 48c | 1,425$684 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$741.28 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca5…73bcbacked Over | 55c | 1,335$734 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$734 | 404 | 51.5%208 W · 196 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…405cbacked Over | 52c | 1,150$598 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$598.08 | 434 | 53.2%231 W · 203 L | +6.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e30…acbfbacked Over | 49c | 999.24$490 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$489.63 | 2,753 | 50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L | +47.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6bb3…758ebacked Over | 51c | 970.11$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$494.47 | 956 | 51.5%492 W · 464 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 50c | 814.67$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.72 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 49c | 781$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.69 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x685d…22d6backed Over | 51c | 484.31$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247 | 301 | 57.1%172 W · 129 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea22…747abacked Over | 5c | 302.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.13 | 679 | 21.4%145 W · 534 L | +32.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c4a…68a2backed Over | 65c | 287.24$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -2.1wins | -0.69per pick | 69cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…e6c9backed Over | 53c | 265.01$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.05 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5487…a014backed Under | 48c | 250$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 1,667 | 52.7%878 W · 789 L | +45.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3920…23e7backed Over | 53c | 249.99$133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.99 | 304 | 52.6%160 W · 144 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Under | 47c | 239.08$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.9 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Over | 50c | 233.22$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.48 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2639…a9b6backed Under | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 241 | 47.7%115 W · 126 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a5…e95dbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 312 | 49.4%154 W · 158 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa5dc…ec43backed Over | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 690 | 49.4%341 W · 349 L | -30.0wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fbc…9cf6backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 366 | 49.5%181 W · 185 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1033…d851backed Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 274 | 43.1%118 W · 156 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x785f…e3d9backed Under | 49c | 184.37$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.24 | 1,029 | 47.7%491 W · 538 L | -13.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9c3…5ce1backed Under | 10c | 150$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.27per pick | 35cpaid | +188.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Over | 56c | 142.86$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x843a…043cbacked Under | 47c | 128.72$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.72 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.7wins | +0.34per pick | 46cpaid | +67.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Over | 50c | 120.6$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.3 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Under | 29c | 116.89$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.96 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcceb…9594backed Over | 52c | 115.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 49c | 111.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.01 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9164…f32bbacked Over | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc81…5df2backed Over | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 45c | 97.28$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 162 | 61.7%100 W · 62 L | +15.6wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +19.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Under | 47c | 78.62$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.03 | 1,695 | 44.7%758 W · 937 L | -30.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70f…d5d5backed Over | 52c | 63.46$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 52c | 61.54$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4512…5d41backed Over | 52c | 57.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 216 | 37.5%81 W · 135 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49b6…6fd5backed Over | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc29d…3352backed Over | 52c | 53.85$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 159 | 59.1%94 W · 65 L | +4.5wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x051b…09d4backed Over | 50c | 52$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 456 | 51.1%233 W · 223 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Over | 50c | 51.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 1,425 | 47.7%680 W · 745 L | +13.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Over | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 493 | 51.7%255 W · 238 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88b5…7b0bbacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 54 | 35.2%19 W · 35 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -24.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…4a2cbacked Over | 55c | 50$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.5 | 319 | 47.6%152 W · 167 L | -18.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x49bb…4d4cbacked Over | 55c | 45.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0969…b289backed Over | 53c | 45.38$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.05 | 222 | 47.3%105 W · 117 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f9…4375backed Over | 56c | 33.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1db3…ada1backed Under | 48c | 33$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.16 | 689 | 40.2%277 W · 412 L | -54.9wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0684…d593backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 879 | 50.6%445 W · 434 L | -16.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac27…18e7backed Over | 55c | 24.09$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.25 | 415 | 56.9%236 W · 179 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6b8…6f30backed Over | 55c | 20.03$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -3.9wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…81f6backed Over | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 226.5this page
- Aaron Gordon: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Deandre Ayton: Rebounds O/U 8.5No won
- Lakers vs. NuggetsLakers won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: 1H O/U 117.5Over won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 227.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 228.5Under won
- Lakers vs. Nuggets: O/U 229.5Under won
- LeBron James: Points O/U 22.5No won
- Spread: Lakers (-1.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-2.5)Lakers won
- Spread: Lakers (-3.5)Lakers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.