Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 21?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b1fd5e71790520904aa8c83f7a7fb760d162b2acce724090b68741306473a35
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,755
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,104
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,755 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 42c | 3,945$1,674 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,270.58 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 57c | 665$379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$379.15 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 60c | 507.16$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.19 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 56c | 485.03$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.53 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 42c | 416.35$173 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$243.36 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 21c | 369.04$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 468 | 24.4%114 W · 354 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 58c | 335$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.3 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed Yes | 52c | 303.44$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.73 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 272.61$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 60c | 234.09$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.45 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 43c | 230.53$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.83 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x802d…d59abacked Yes | 44c | 230$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.8 | 1,298 | 41.7%541 W · 757 L | +53.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 56c | 187.6$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.48 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x48c0…53d5backed Yes | 41c | 164.05$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.79 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 56c | 160$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.6 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf01d…bb31backed No | 53c | 143.77$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.2 | 162 | 72.2%117 W · 45 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x79d9…9275backed Yes | 80c | 124.54$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.94 | 385 | 60.3%232 W · 153 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24da…4c6dbacked Yes | 49c | 114$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.28 | 30 | 70%21 W · 9 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1775…85b0backed Yes | 65c | 107.11$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.11 | 366 | 48.4%177 W · 189 L | +25.4wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed No | 59c | 105.08$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b8f…e17ebacked No | 56c | 105$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.3 | 272 | 48.9%133 W · 139 L | -10.1wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes | 48c | 102.66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.38 | 191 | 37.2%71 W · 120 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe6e…2313backed No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 262 | 56.5%148 W · 114 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 60c | 93.9$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.51 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 21c | 93.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 41c | 87.03$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.03 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 31c | 83.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.62 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x135c…7c21backed No | 59c | 80.95$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.53 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | -3.8wins | -0.11per pick | 58cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 55c | 78$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.56 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 53c | 75.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.56 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa990…dc90backed Yes | 44c | 72.73$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.73 | 591 | 44.5%263 W · 328 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5641…6d0dbacked No | 22c | 72.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 563 | 22.9%129 W · 434 L | -32.9wins | -0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 55c | 69.71$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.04 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 23c | 61.58$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x803a…219ebacked Yes | 48c | 60.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.41 | 262 | 65.6%172 W · 90 L | +14.2wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 57c | 60$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 57c | 57$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.49 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…b6ddbacked Yes | 66c | 53$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.08 | 47 | 76.6%36 W · 11 L | +7.0wins | +0.15per pick | 62cpaid | +25%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 61c | 53$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.33 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 56c | 52.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 51c | 52.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.81 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 61c | 52.26$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 48 | 41.7%20 W · 28 L | -7.0wins | -0.15per pick | 56cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xab5e…47f6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…2475backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 571 | 50.4%288 W · 283 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 55c | 49.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.03 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 40c | 47.75$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.58 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 54c | 45.89$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7956…eba5backed Yes | 42c | 43.12$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.12 | 1,048 | 38.1%399 W · 649 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcca3…7450backed No | 57c | 39.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.78 | 426 | 43.2%184 W · 242 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 40c | 38.59$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.03 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 41c | 35.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.15 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc865…7477backed No | 56c | 35.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.74 | 176 | 33.5%59 W · 117 L | -34.2wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -41.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 61c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6120…f1febacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 827 | 42.8%354 W · 473 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed Yes | 39c | 32.41$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 40c | 32.28$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.28 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc848…537bbacked Yes | 66c | 31.26$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.68 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 40c | 31.25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.74 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 80c | 30.11$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.11 | 1,018 | 25.5%260 W · 758 L | -11.7wins | -0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 51c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 54c | 29.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.32 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5787…1f86backed Yes | 70c | 28.42$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.42 | 235 | 60%141 W · 94 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 48c | 28.21$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.67 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 55c | 25.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x194b…2a11backed No | 55c | 25.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 288 | 66.3%191 W · 97 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf89…326dbacked No | 58c | 25.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.53 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa0d3…5b5ebacked No | 60c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 121 | 57%69 W · 52 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 44c | 23.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 59c | 23.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186d…8bfebacked Yes | 65c | 23.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.16 | 191 | 66.5%127 W · 64 L | +6.9wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0428…7d12backed Yes | 44c | 23.25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.02 | 301 | 36.9%111 W · 190 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf184…d472backed Yes | 66c | 22.76$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 97 | 69.1%67 W · 30 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c3e…3865backed Yes | 54c | 20.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.38 | 91 | 76.9%70 W · 21 L | +9.6wins | +0.11per pick | 66cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb22a…1479backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 33 | 69.7%23 W · 10 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 293 | 54.3%159 W · 134 L | -25.6wins | -0.09per pick | 63cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 58c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x965b…e530backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 57 | 70.2%40 W · 17 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1c…3f79backed No | 58c | 18.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 493 | 59%291 W · 202 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 75c | 16.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.26 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7274…c205backed Yes | 70c | 15.87$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.77 | 213 | 61%130 W · 83 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 79c | 15.46$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.23 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 32°C on July 21?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on July 21?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Busan be 33°C on July 21?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.