La Liga · resolved market
Will Real Oviedo vs. Valencia CF end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b2983ef5fe90ecafee00e49dfd62442532e277dbd29ece0b243fa4023707a90
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,402
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,402 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5db5…1a50backed Yes | 27c | 7,454$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 57 | 26.3%15 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 79c | 6,691$5,256 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,435.81 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 2,957$2,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$770.57 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc699…7961backed Yes | 27c | 1,852$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 76c | 1,247$943 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.71 | 1,798 | 51.4%924 W · 874 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 74c | 1,190$883 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$306.8 | 1,419 | 45.6%647 W · 772 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 10c | 993.56$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.2 | 839 | 39.8%334 W · 505 L | -21.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 31c | 777.42$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241 | 494 | 47%232 W · 262 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a6…bca4backed Yes | 31c | 748.39$232 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$232 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -2.8wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29c0…efaabacked No | 70c | 687.97$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.39 | 278 | 54.7%152 W · 126 L | +20.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x42ef…1576backed No | 70c | 650.71$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.21 | 99 | 56.6%56 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…1f26backed Yes | 27c | 646.93$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.53 | 30 | 40%12 W · 18 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 69c | 637.12$440 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.77 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 69c | 612.13$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.15 | 922 | 54.1%499 W · 423 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 71c | 585.41$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.19 | 908 | 43.6%396 W · 512 L | -9.4wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Yes | 8c | 450$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.5 | 269 | 30.5%82 W · 187 L | -21.4wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -42.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 69c | 399.94$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.98 | 428 | 51.4%220 W · 208 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf4b…2d40backed No | 65c | 384$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc357…3684backed Yes | 21c | 357.14$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.24per pick | 43cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 74c | 307$226 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.76 | 1,018 | 53.1%541 W · 477 L | -24.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Yes | 31c | 300$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93 | 16 | 25%4 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -41.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf43…ae9abacked Yes | 31c | 279.68$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.7 | 42 | 66.7%28 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e1…c20abacked Yes | 21c | 237$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.4 | 132 | 49.2%65 W · 67 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58d2…72d3backed Yes | 9c | 224.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Yes | 31c | 200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 424 | 58%246 W · 178 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f02…12f5backed Yes | 11c | 199.99$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 78 | 51.3%40 W · 38 L | +3.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e40…7d1fbacked Yes | 13c | 194.34$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 35 | 22.9%8 W · 27 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cab…8228backed Yes | 8c | 151.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f4d…ebdebacked No | 70c | 146.71$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.01 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 65cpaid | +14%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Yes | 24c | 141.67$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 108 | 34.3%37 W · 71 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Yes | 14c | 127.05$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 231 | 52.8%122 W · 109 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc85e…5d37backed Yes | 28c | 124.52$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Yes | 11c | 117.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 225 | 53.8%121 W · 104 L | +18.6wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe85f…7f69backed Yes | 31c | 112.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 30c | 110.72$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.47 | 288 | 47.6%137 W · 151 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked No | 69c | 100.02$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.05 | 836 | 50.7%424 W · 412 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 102 | 70.6%72 W · 30 L | +2.6wins | +0.03per pick | 68cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 627 | 44.3%278 W · 349 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6bde…b181backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 26cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf86…5394backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +2.3wins | +0.26per pick | 30cpaid | +160.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaffe…7140backed Yes | 31c | 94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.14 | 92 | 37%34 W · 58 L | -4.2wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdfb5…8740backed Yes | 31c | 92.65$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc52c…6732backed Yes | 16c | 88.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 24cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Yes | 24c | 84.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 58 | 36.2%21 W · 37 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x660e…76ccbacked Yes | 31c | 80.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed No | 69c | 79.99$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.8 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked No | 69c | 79.98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.79 | 215 | 46%99 W · 116 L | -14.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7068…8bfcbacked Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14ed…6d09backed Yes | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 69c | 75$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.25 | 754 | 51.2%386 W · 368 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ee…8067backed Yes | 31c | 74.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 59 | 40.7%24 W · 35 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed9d…444abacked Yes | 29c | 72.08$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 39cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Yes | 29c | 68$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | -5.9wins | -0.10per pick | 57cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbed9…bbd3backed No | 67c | 64.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.05per pick | 63cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c2b…ec21backed Yes | 24c | 62.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 60.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.51 | 444 | 24.1%107 W · 337 L | -50.1wins | -0.11per pick | 35cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17 | 413 | 48.7%201 W · 212 L | -9.4wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…2b6bbacked Yes | 26c | 57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 41cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…72eabacked Yes | 31c | 54.84$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 69c | 50.01$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.5 | 697 | 50.8%354 W · 343 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd257…d215backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 140 | 23.6%33 W · 107 L | +5.0wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fd0…31c9backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf87…cc46backed Yes | 22c | 49.98$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 40 | 37.5%15 W · 25 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac3f…1966backed No | 70c | 44$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb196…33d5backed No | 69c | 42.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 117 | 61.5%72 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056a…611fbacked Yes | 31c | 41.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -41.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa262…c8babacked Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 86 | 43%37 W · 49 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x29bf…08a1backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 125 | 38.4%48 W · 77 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…4e3dbacked Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56e6…45e9backed Yes | 31c | 38.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 95 | 60%57 W · 38 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3601…cbd5backed No | 70c | 38.2$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x785e…5542backed Yes | 31c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7e9…c1b1backed Yes | 31c | 35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6404…2a20backed No | 78c | 34.59$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.71 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 30c | 34$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,566 | 51.6%808 W · 758 L | -8.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Yes | 34c | 33.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 1,508 | 38.7%583 W · 925 L | +12.4wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Yes | 36c | 30.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 91 | 34.1%31 W · 60 L | -6.3wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed No | 75c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 174 | 55.2%96 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x449e…4f8ebacked No | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 71cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed No | 69c | 24.29$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.53 | 203 | 53.7%109 W · 94 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b38…a036backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 47 | 61.7%29 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…9f10backed No | 70c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 12 | 91.7%11 W · 1 L | +2.6wins | +0.22per pick | 70cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4aab…38ccbacked No | 70c | 16.31$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.89 | 119 | 59.7%71 W · 48 L | -2.8wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Real Oviedo vs. Valencia CF end in a draw?this page
- Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-03-14?Yes won
- Will Valencia CF win on 2026-03-14?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.