NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b8ed8986c467be6e011ce433f8175c815922faddfbbadbdfd7d14c01e704094
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,413
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,343
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,413 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1fcd…445ebacked Under | 1c | 6,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xceb1…bd4fbacked Under | 1c | 1,967$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.67 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 79c | 1,635$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336.29 | 2,112 | 42.9%907 W · 1,205 L | -10.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 19c | 1,036$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.08 | 318 | 28.3%90 W · 228 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc463…9a2fbacked Under | 37c | 917.24$339 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$339.38 | 267 | 50.2%134 W · 133 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0656…4d9bbacked Under | 1c | 800$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 50 | 4%2 W · 48 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 63c | 793.65$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.65 | 472 | 56.8%268 W · 204 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b84…6accbacked Under | 17c | 588.24$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Over | 73c | 487.12$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.32 | 521 | 72.6%378 W · 143 L | +36.7wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xab41…c453backed Over | 53c | 429$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.13 | 1,431 | 58.3%834 W · 597 L | +81.0wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Under | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.95 | 823 | 53.1%437 W · 386 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 78c | 375.2$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.65 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 23c | 304.07$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.62 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Under | 23c | 287.51$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.9 | 295 | 33.6%99 W · 196 L | +4.6wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…ceeebacked Under | 5c | 249.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 69c | 232.6$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.3 | 618 | 48.1%297 W · 321 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 62c | 230.71$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.4 | 55 | 63.6%35 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7511…582ebacked Under | 30c | 223.73$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.12 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2110…d4fbbacked Under | 47c | 212.77$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 145 | 60.7%88 W · 57 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Over | 53c | 207.77$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.65 | 165 | 46.7%77 W · 88 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x718d…2b46backed Under | 23c | 189.96$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.3 | 397 | 51.1%203 W · 194 L | -7.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 36c | 174.44$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 333 | 63.7%212 W · 121 L | +44.3wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 64+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x52cb…4007backed Under | 56c | 172.07$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.36 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -4.4wins | -0.44per pick | 64cpaid | -72.8%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Under | 29c | 168$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.52 | 355 | 51%181 W · 174 L | +18.9wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Over | 80c | 149$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.45 | 410 | 50.7%208 W · 202 L | +12.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd7…6d6cbacked Over | 61c | 122$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.58 | 152 | 65.1%99 W · 53 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Under | 41c | 120$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.08 | 88 | 37.5%33 W · 55 L | -4.5wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Under | 54c | 110$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.27 | 604 | 49.2%297 W · 307 L | -17.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Over | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 696 | 53.4%372 W · 324 L | -16.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Under | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 2,314 | 46.5%1,075 W · 1,239 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b45…ac9fbacked Over | 50c | 81$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 133 | 43.6%58 W · 75 L | -4.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1150…abe0backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 34 | 76.5%26 W · 8 L | +5.6wins | +0.16per pick | 60cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3ac2…e183backed Over | 63c | 79.37$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.37 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb96…34b9backed Over | 61c | 42.36$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.52 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50e9…5efebacked Over | 60c | 28.75$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 427 | 50.8%217 W · 210 L | -12.4wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 39c | 26.39$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 1,555 | 51.4%800 W · 755 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8a11…9282backed Under | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb7…ca4abacked Over | 44c | 24.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Over | 76c | 13.98$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.31 | 36 | 72.2%26 W · 10 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Canadiens: O/U 5.5this page
- Panthers vs. CanadiensCanadiens won
- Panthers vs. Canadiens: O/U 4.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Canadiens: O/U 6.5Over won
- Panthers vs. Canadiens: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Canadiens (-1.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.