TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$4,271

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,271 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 14 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x33c9…6f9abacked Thunder48c1,500$720 inWon+$779.988657%49 W · 37 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Timberwolves52c670.44$352 inLost-$351.961,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ad5…37b9backed Timberwolves15c417.38$63 inLost-$62.6114438.9%56 W · 88 L+32.5wins+0.23per pick16cpaid+228.3%equal weight71+0.19 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Timberwolves52c266.94$139 inLost-$138.812,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Timberwolves52c204.43$106 inLost-$105.531,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913b…0852backed Timberwolves52c193.94$101 inLost-$100.8542153%223 W · 198 L+23.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+8.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4786…ff95backed Thunder49c82.9$41 inWon+$42.2822646.9%106 W · 120 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Thunder36c59.29$21 inWon+$38.061,63341.2%672 W · 961 L+26.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Timberwolves52c55.5$29 inLost-$28.683,12044.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L-7.6wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Timberwolves52c52.06$27 inLost-$27.079,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Timberwolves67c40$27 inLost-$26.81,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20ad…a7c6backed Timberwolves55c31.59$17 inLost-$17.3251438.7%199 W · 315 L-29.6wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9409…5b36backed Thunder48c28.96$14 inWon+$15.0611233.9%38 W · 74 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8f6e…6a74backed Timberwolves50c20$10 inLost-$1021651.4%111 W · 105 L-12.5wins-0.06per pick57cpaid-11.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.