TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Spread: Thunder (-9.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Thunderof Thunder, Timberwolves
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$815,537

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $815,537 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 388 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4924…3782backed Thunder49c480,103$235,229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244,873.2787451.5%450 W · 424 L+15.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Timberwolves51c206,959$105,549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105,548.8866248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Timberwolves51c98,941$50,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,459.662,36148.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L-41.8wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Timberwolves51c43,067$21,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,971.134,68249.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L+27.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Timberwolves52c30,828$15,942 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,942.471,04651.1%534 W · 512 L-0.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Timberwolves55c30,090$16,495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,49536549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Timberwolves51c21,398$10,915 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,915.111,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Timberwolves51c15,686$8,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,0001,19448.8%583 W · 611 L-22.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb5e9…4044backed Timberwolves59c9,769$5,763 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,763.489053.3%48 W · 42 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Timberwolves51c8,423$4,311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,311.032,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Timberwolves52c8,304$4,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,317.8723147.6%110 W · 121 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Timberwolves53c7,195$3,823 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,822.614,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x00d5…ed84backed Timberwolves60c6,666$3,999 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,999.4917050%85 W · 85 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Thunder51c5,821$2,950 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,870.831,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7412…85d0backed Timberwolves58c5,678$3,269 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,268.6526544.9%119 W · 146 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-4.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Thunder46c5,168$2,377 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,790.561,02450.8%520 W · 504 L+18.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e33…179dbacked Timberwolves53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,65010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5ff2…0a2bbacked Timberwolves53c4,957$2,627 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,627.36650%3 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0865…3dffbacked Timberwolves54c4,664$2,519 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,518.733751.4%19 W · 18 L+2.5wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+4.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24b3…a5a4backed Thunder49c4,093$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,092.6211249.1%55 W · 57 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Timberwolves51c4,000$2,040 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,04079549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd88c…a688backed Thunder47c3,999$1,880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,119.472100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf04…33e8backed Thunder47c3,788$1,780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,007.642100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder49c3,706$1,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,899.494,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb275…c76fbacked Thunder48c3,518$1,701 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.0515551.6%80 W · 75 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Timberwolves51c3,333$1,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,699.8314753.1%78 W · 69 L-0.1wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdcd…57b8backed Thunder47c3,247$1,526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,720.912100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+110.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1cf3…1084backed Thunder47c3,188$1,498 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,689.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x41b4…de82backed Thunder46c3,000$1,390 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,609.9958740%235 W · 352 L+24.3wins+0.04per pick36cpaid+3.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Thunder45c2,987$1,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,632.425840.7%105 W · 153 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick39cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfab4…93a5backed Thunder47c2,955$1,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,566.15250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x48e2…2a5fbacked Timberwolves53c2,744$1,454 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,454.2817550.9%89 W · 86 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x46bd…ce81backed Thunder47c2,710$1,274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,436.3250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Timberwolves51c2,702$1,378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,378.011,13948.3%550 W · 589 L+3.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67d5…566ebacked Timberwolves53c2,608$1,382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,382.24250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f16…e1b8backed Thunder47c2,545$1,196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,348.852100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f45…34bfbacked Thunder47c2,533$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,342.492100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+110.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8259…8233backed Thunder47c2,526$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.782100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+110.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ff3…1aa9backed Timberwolves58c2,525$1,465 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,464.519645.9%90 W · 106 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe50d…8a7abacked Timberwolves53c2,525$1,338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,338.25250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92f1…142dbacked Thunder47c2,515$1,182 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,332.952100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+110.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c5f…e774backed Timberwolves53c2,515$1,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,332.95250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a83…2150backed Timberwolves53c2,501$1,326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,325.53250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56fb…ea07backed Timberwolves53c2,480$1,314 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,314.4250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc4…9bdebacked Thunder47c2,466$1,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.982100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+110.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc98d…d553backed Thunder47c2,455$1,154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,301.152100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ca5…26b2backed Thunder47c2,452$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.562100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd316…c8c0backed Thunder47c2,452$1,152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,299.562100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Timberwolves53c2,447$1,297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,296.7237747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba29…a0f3backed Timberwolves53c2,423$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.19250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa87b…53dfbacked Timberwolves53c2,414$1,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,279.42250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5068…b5d2backed Timberwolves53c2,407$1,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,275.7120%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa91…7353backed Thunder47c2,396$1,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.88580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+52.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba0e…c9cdbacked Timberwolves53c2,381$1,262 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,261.9320%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd870…bec9backed Thunder47c2,365$1,112 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,253.452100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc79e…03a7backed Timberwolves53c2,343$1,242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,241.7920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd12a…3ff0backed Thunder47c2,340$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,240.2250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e4f…552ebacked Timberwolves53c2,323$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.19250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdfa9…3bf6backed Timberwolves53c2,323$1,231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,231.19250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe932…943dbacked Thunder47c2,322$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,230.66250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xafcc…0b87backed Timberwolves53c2,313$1,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,225.89250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x645c…8bbbbacked Timberwolves53c2,275$1,206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,205.75250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d17…b7a3backed Thunder48c2,259$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,174.68250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3145…96acbacked Timberwolves52c2,258$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.16250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09e8…c939backed Thunder47c2,254$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,194.622100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+115.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3ec6…f343backed Timberwolves53c2,252$1,194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,193.56250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1b8…ad22backed Timberwolves53c2,250$1,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,192.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1fdc…f343backed Thunder47c2,241$1,053 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,187.732100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x99d7…b5ccbacked Thunder48c2,238$1,074 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,163.762100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick50cpaid+102.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2082…bee6backed Timberwolves53c2,230$1,182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,181.920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf2b…9ad4backed Thunder47c2,225$1,046 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,179.25250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x53cb…236cbacked Thunder47c2,222$1,044 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,177.662100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+110.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x947f…ff1cbacked Timberwolves53c2,215$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.95250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82a6…d98cbacked Timberwolves53c2,215$1,174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,173.95250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x22f6…dc50backed Timberwolves53c2,206$1,169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,169.18250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78d0…bc41backed Thunder47c2,204$1,036 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,168.122100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe8dc…29afbacked Timberwolves53c2,203$1,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,167.5920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd8f8…1c01backed Thunder47c2,182$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,156.462100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce30…84b9backed Thunder47c2,178$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,154.34250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a8c…970abacked Thunder47c2,164$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,146.922100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7a7…26ebbacked Thunder47c2,163$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,146.39250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8d…4878backed Timberwolves53c2,156$1,143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.68250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dd2…19aabacked Timberwolves53c2,155$1,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,142.1520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb8ec…2268backed Thunder47c2,153$1,012 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,141.092100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ebf…cfbabacked Timberwolves53c2,150$1,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,139.5250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7052…7c6bbacked Thunder47c2,137$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,132.612100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+110.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xebb8…82c7backed Thunder47c2,131$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.432100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick49cpaid+106.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x219b…8f31backed Timberwolves53c2,131$1,129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,129.43250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c32…639abacked Timberwolves53c2,123$1,125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,125.1920%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0c4f…5a9dbacked Thunder47c2,121$997 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,124.132100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick48cpaid+110.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8c9e…c63cbacked Timberwolves53c2,121$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.13250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3ee…15e4backed Timberwolves53c2,121$1,124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,124.13250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf93c…116abacked Timberwolves52c2,082$1,083 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,082.64250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa1b3…0329backed Timberwolves53c2,076$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10013534.1%46 W · 89 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-12.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1495…67fdbacked Timberwolves53c2,069$1,097 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,096.57250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdc02…fee9backed Timberwolves53c2,065$1,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,094.4520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa949…9f09backed Timberwolves53c2,058$1,091 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,090.7420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1a45…0758backed Timberwolves53c2,056$1,090 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,089.68250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1dfd…bcefbacked Thunder48c2,056$987 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,069.12250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4523…cf6abacked Thunder47c2,036$957 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,079.082100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+115.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.