TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$9,259

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,259 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa800…bd7abacked Over53c6,143$3,255 inWon+$2,888.434456.8%25 W · 19 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Under47c5,554$2,610 inLost-$2,610.451,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under47c1,033$483 inLost-$483.319,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30f4…8c1ebacked Over53c350$186 inWon+$164.55759.6%34 W · 23 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d9f…77aebacked Over50c298.93$150 inWon+$148.932339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick51cpaid-26.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2b46…684dbacked Over60c264.98$158 inWon+$1071,64547.5%782 W · 863 L+40.9wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Under50c252.07$126 inLost-$126.042,40043.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L-82.9wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-9.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Under47c228.37$108 inLost-$108.013,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Over51c67$34 inWon+$32.831,71544.5%764 W · 951 L-0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5937…cc97backed Over52c42.89$22 inWon+$20.636357.1%36 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b44…d8debacked Over51c30.34$15 inWon+$1576653.5%410 W · 356 L+65.5wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+15.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Under51c25.63$13 inLost-$13.0757650%288 W · 288 L+1.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over57c23.25$13 inWon+$102,20846.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L+42.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under54c20$11 inLost-$10.8411354.9%62 W · 51 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1c…1f45backed Under50c20$10 inLost-$105743.9%25 W · 32 L-3.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb760…0be8backed Under67c17.91$12 inLost-$121855.6%10 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick63cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.