NBA · resolved market
Spread: Thunder (-7.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x49c8c263f635266069008c7699042a4b51788e4fea30df2e08a13367e8e62ba5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Thunderof Thunder, Timberwolves
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $49,799
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,906
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $49,799 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x37c1…c53abacked Thunder | 55c | 11,604$6,368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,236.38 | 1,915 | 49.3%944 W · 971 L | +19.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x65d6…6d6bbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 7,444$3,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,350 | 128 | 44.5%57 W · 71 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Timberwolves | 47c | 7,201$3,373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,372.72 | 2,468 | 50.5%1,247 W · 1,221 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7412…85d0backed Timberwolves | 43c | 6,369$2,739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,739.05 | 265 | 44.9%119 W · 146 L | -8.7wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b6…9a9bbacked Timberwolves | 45c | 6,301$2,835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,835.26 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Thunder | 53c | 5,545$2,915 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,630.08 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Thunder | 57c | 5,439$3,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,338.69 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a4…cf8abacked Timberwolves | 45c | 5,122$2,305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,304.82 | 247 | 44.1%109 W · 138 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Thunder | 55c | 3,897$2,144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,753.77 | 4,682 | 49.6%2,324 W · 2,358 L | +27.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ae5…ead2backed Timberwolves | 73c | 3,782$2,750 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,750 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ae…4df8backed Thunder | 55c | 3,492$1,921 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,571.54 | 1,044 | 47.5%496 W · 548 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Thunder | 52c | 1,576$819 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$756.78 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Thunder | 34c | 1,309$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$867.62 | 3,668 | 41.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L | -70.7wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1690…8c4dbacked Thunder | 79c | 1,036$822 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.97 | 70 | 64.3%45 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fea…78b1backed Thunder | 27c | 842.12$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$615.16 | 263 | 37.3%98 W · 165 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xabde…d41fbacked Thunder | 26c | 600$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444 | 419 | 47.7%200 W · 219 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Thunder | 57c | 598$341 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.14 | 2,208 | 46.6%1,030 W · 1,178 L | +42.7wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Timberwolves | 47c | 560.42$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.48 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…8464backed Thunder | 50c | 514$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257 | 400 | 41.5%166 W · 234 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Thunder | 72c | 417.32$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.32 | 432 | 69.2%299 W · 133 L | +10.7wins | +0.02per pick | 67cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Thunder | 55c | 391.23$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.05 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Thunder | 56c | 344.86$193 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.76 | 1,055 | 49.9%526 W · 529 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b42…62afbacked Thunder | 56c | 337.93$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$148.69 | 58 | 50%29 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…6da6backed Timberwolves | 43c | 314.26$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.31 | 455 | 42.4%193 W · 262 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Thunder | 48c | 303.4$145 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.13 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x211d…3ab7backed Thunder | 56c | 283.67$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.67 | 51 | 58.8%30 W · 21 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4d16…4e1fbacked Thunder | 74c | 252$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.62 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Timberwolves | 47c | 220.46$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.22 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb5…6e63backed Timberwolves | 50c | 198.5$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.25 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc20a…9787backed Thunder | 54c | 183.33$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.33 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ca8…ddddbacked Timberwolves | 55c | 182.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 278 | 46.8%130 W · 148 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480e…90c7backed Thunder | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.44 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Timberwolves | 44c | 169.09$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Timberwolves | 74c | 134$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.16 | 1,715 | 44.5%764 W · 951 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92c4…ffc4backed Thunder | 54c | 114.64$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.58 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Timberwolves | 43c | 114.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.27 | 2,657 | 49.6%1,319 W · 1,338 L | +42.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61af…aa01backed Thunder | 56c | 100$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 384 | 64.3%247 W · 137 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 63cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Thunder | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ad…6979backed Thunder | 55c | 83.09$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.07 | 576 | 50%288 W · 288 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f49…fec0backed Timberwolves | 36c | 65.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.31 | 378 | 48.7%184 W · 194 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Thunder | 51c | 56.16$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x635b…195dbacked Timberwolves | 49c | 56$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 382 | 52.4%200 W · 182 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe253…b9c7backed Thunder | 56c | 53.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.57 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Thunder | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed8…0e99backed Timberwolves | 45c | 40.48$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 456 | 53.5%244 W · 212 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b9d…269dbacked Thunder | 48c | 31.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.17 | 487 | 39.8%194 W · 293 L | -21.1wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b78…c6b5backed Thunder | 52c | 30.82$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.8 | 1,197 | 48.9%585 W · 612 L | -14.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56a7…9f37backed Thunder | 55c | 30.46$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 208 | 47.1%98 W · 110 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbd…b8d3backed Timberwolves | 47c | 24.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.43 | 672 | 48.8%328 W · 344 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f6e…6a74backed Timberwolves | 69c | 20$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 216 | 51.4%111 W · 105 L | -12.5wins | -0.06per pick | 57cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f02…f85fbacked Timberwolves | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e4…4bc7backed Thunder | 55c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0403…29d4backed Thunder | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…0b8abacked Thunder | 53c | 19.36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.1 | 239 | 50.6%121 W · 118 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdf29…6870backed Thunder | 55c | 18.62$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Timberwolves | 71c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 3,341 | 53.4%1,785 W · 1,556 L | +108.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 37 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Thunder (-7.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Timberwolves won
- Ajay Mitchell: Points O/U 11.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 3.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Assists O/U 4.5Yes won
- Anthony Edwards: Points O/U 27.5No won
- Anthony Edwards: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Assists O/U 2.5Yes won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Points O/U 9.5No won
- Isaiah Hartenstein: Rebounds O/U 7.5Yes won
- Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Thunder (-10.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-11.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-12.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-3.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-4.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-6.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-8.5)Thunder won
- Spread: Thunder (-9.5)Thunder won
- Timberwolves vs. ThunderThunder won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: 1H MoneylineTimberwolves won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 108.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: 1H O/U 109.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 209.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 211.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 213.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 216.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 218.5Over won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 222.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 223.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 224.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 225.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 226.5Under won
- Timberwolves vs. Thunder: O/U 228.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.