TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Mexico City: Jay Clarke vs Matias Soto

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Matias Sotoof Jay Clarke, Matias Soto
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$146,143
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$151,698

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $146,143 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 189 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Jay Clarke40c11,587$4,687 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,686.878,82836.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L-193.3wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-27.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Matias Soto52c8,062$4,212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,850.876,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Matias Soto39c7,595$2,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,641.4911,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a32…0086backed Jay Clarke54c7,176$3,905 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,904.6819241.1%79 W · 113 L-7.7wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked Matias Soto45c5,964$2,655 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,308.962,98239.1%1,167 W · 1,815 L-109.1wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-30.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7a5d…54dbbacked Matias Soto53c5,170$2,737 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,433.272,41750.7%1,226 W · 1,191 L+78.7wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-3.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc519…c2d9backed Matias Soto45c4,000$1,800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,199.993959%23 W · 16 L+3.1wins+0.08per pick51cpaid+18.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5fea…78b1backed Jay Clarke49c3,713$1,804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,804.1837741.4%156 W · 221 L+9.3wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-7.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x42c9…9623backed Matias Soto51c3,631$1,861 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,769.514,70349.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L+166.5wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x896d…cd2cbacked Jay Clarke60c3,606$2,152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,152.1417357.8%100 W · 73 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fd9…544abacked Jay Clarke66c2,726$1,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,789.3320155.7%112 W · 89 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58e4…73f9backed Matias Soto32c2,717$869 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,848.0130741.7%128 W · 179 L-1.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-6.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36d8…c7c7backed Matias Soto62c2,000$1,249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$750.851,22841.1%505 W · 723 L+1.8wins0.00per pick41cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Matias Soto42c2,000$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.7858232%186 W · 396 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd154…9c74backed Jay Clarke58c1,958$1,131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,131.4134847.1%164 W · 184 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x76f1…f655backed Jay Clarke59c1,832$1,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,072.9959253.5%317 W · 275 L+22.7wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x629d…756cbacked Jay Clarke62c1,692$1,046 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,046.122,08252.3%1,088 W · 994 L+19.0wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-5.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf642…7353backed Matias Soto43c1,631$706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$924.4666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+32.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf69b…a6ddbacked Jay Clarke1c1,562$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6219250.5%97 W · 95 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Jay Clarke58c1,488$869 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$868.731,10742.8%474 W · 633 L-20.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-16.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed Jay Clarke58c1,484$859 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.3540548.1%195 W · 210 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-13.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88aa…bbb5backed Jay Clarke77c1,232$953 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$952.571050%5 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-17.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd63…cf21backed Matias Soto41c1,224$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$727.786155.7%34 W · 27 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Jay Clarke59c1,189$704 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$703.773,07244.9%1,378 W · 1,694 L-30.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-23%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff34…bf20backed Matias Soto34c1,130$384 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$746.179425.5%24 W · 70 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xea48…62dcbacked Jay Clarke63c1,127$714 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$713.969947.5%47 W · 52 L-5.9wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-9.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Jay Clarke55c1,118$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611.42,06535.2%727 W · 1,338 L-52.7wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x528f…2101backed Jay Clarke26c1,105$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.091,02650%513 W · 513 L+9.6wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3947…b1e9backed Jay Clarke72c1,092$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.563974.4%29 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick71cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Jay Clarke53c1,026$546 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545.892,86544.3%1,269 W · 1,596 L+6.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-20.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x93ef…468bbacked Matias Soto43c1,022$440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582.6913450%67 W · 67 L+6.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+15.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Matias Soto43c999.99$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5706726.9%18 W · 49 L-5.0wins-0.08per pick34cpaid-30.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c83…6f40backed Matias Soto29c990.41$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$703.191,25850%629 W · 629 L-4.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c76…c926backed Matias Soto41c989.99$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$584.094,07639.7%1,620 W · 2,456 L+93.7wins+0.02per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3e7…bf64backed Jay Clarke56c982.97$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$550.461,09452.4%573 W · 521 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Matias Soto46c963$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$520.021752.9%9 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28f0…ceabbacked Jay Clarke52c836.36$435 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.914639.1%18 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeea0…e902backed Jay Clarke78c821.92$637 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$637.364360.5%26 W · 17 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick66cpaid-12.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9d2a…d5d0backed Matias Soto52c786.84$409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.9524762.3%154 W · 93 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xce06…c99dbacked Jay Clarke16c730.53$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.236365.1%41 W · 22 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick58cpaid-0.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c1a…42d8backed Matias Soto44c726.57$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$406.1727231.3%85 W · 187 L-8.6wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-23.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked Jay Clarke17c664.58$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.6110860.2%65 W · 43 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9b7…93ebbacked Jay Clarke15c660.06$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.1710858.3%63 W · 45 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8a…02acbacked Jay Clarke15c637.46$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.278459.5%50 W · 34 L+3.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid-7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Jay Clarke15c629.35$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.7817656.3%99 W · 77 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x85b8…9d57backed Jay Clarke12c619.28$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.336656.1%37 W · 29 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick59cpaid-10.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ece…068abacked Jay Clarke12c597.44$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.52450%12 W · 12 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-24.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Jay Clarke60c585.31$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$349.021,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4232…d505backed Matias Soto37c572.37$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.6937235.2%131 W · 241 L-12.8wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Matias Soto43c531.75$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.937,13949.7%3,548 W · 3,591 L+109.9wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfb31…7b95backed Matias Soto18c528.06$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.0168026.2%178 W · 502 L-24.5wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-18.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6be…b977backed Matias Soto48c504.58$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.381,76843.2%764 W · 1,004 L+2.9wins0.00per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dda…1768backed Jay Clarke51c489.03$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.03366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.33per pick34cpaid+228.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51ad…5e56backed Matias Soto46c476.7$218 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.641,67153%885 W · 786 L+44.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Matias Soto49c405.22$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.132,48945.2%1,126 W · 1,363 L-27.4wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7926…4ae5backed Jay Clarke11c372.75$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.61050%5 W · 5 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-28.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bc2…4c80backed Jay Clarke60c367.87$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$218.9546473.3%340 W · 124 L+27.0wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+7.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Jay Clarke55c357.42$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.811,45950.1%731 W · 728 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-16.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7a5…f64abacked Jay Clarke57c341.82$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.8484963.1%536 W · 313 L+0.5wins0.00per pick63cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e2f…9123backed Matias Soto42c340.72$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.6231656.3%178 W · 138 L+19.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4738…4687backed Jay Clarke60c325.33$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.237351.2%191 W · 182 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4411…985ebacked Jay Clarke60c320.81$192 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.492,14554.2%1,162 W · 983 L-1.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc2e2…13ffbacked Jay Clarke17c313.92$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.372454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick58cpaid-15.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd038…8f51backed Matias Soto44c306.65$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.124,28840.5%1,737 W · 2,551 L-139.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-20.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Matias Soto44c305.45$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.1895846.6%446 W · 512 L+7.0wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed Matias Soto42c268.69$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.856,78648.8%3,310 W · 3,476 L+56.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Matias Soto42c250.73$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.433,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf3d5…7ca1backed Matias Soto28c249.39$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.9325756%144 W · 113 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ccb…604ebacked Jay Clarke22c225.82$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.813161.3%19 W · 12 L+1.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bec…c707backed Jay Clarke26c221.37$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.6212861.7%79 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70f9…f25bbacked Matias Soto48c201.51$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.7999056%554 W · 436 L+32.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa534…c089backed Matias Soto44c193.28$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.242065%13 W · 7 L+1.5wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Jay Clarke62c193$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.658,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe031…5c08backed Jay Clarke62c179.82$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.6173549.8%366 W · 369 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-15.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f5…3e64backed Jay Clarke21c177.06$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.792857.1%16 W · 12 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x88ff…78aebacked Jay Clarke49c173.5$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5615928.9%46 W · 113 L-10.0wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-32.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcbcc…edc9backed Jay Clarke57c173.41$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.8417262.8%108 W · 64 L-0.1wins0.00per pick63cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Matias Soto37c173.22$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.449,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a3…ad9ebacked Jay Clarke57c170.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.4250952.1%265 W · 244 L-8.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61c1…0513backed Jay Clarke57c170.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.421,28760.7%781 W · 506 L-21.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22e8…8435backed Jay Clarke23c168.37$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.174365.1%28 W · 15 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+5.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb38…f78dbacked Jay Clarke22c167.82$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.522548%12 W · 13 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd056…f1bebacked Matias Soto46c159.99$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$86.3964350.2%323 W · 320 L+10.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36a6…3dabbacked Jay Clarke70c155.05$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.1920%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.70per pick70cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbb5…2b6abacked Jay Clarke60c126.13$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.6828724.4%70 W · 217 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-22%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe05f…1fe3backed Jay Clarke59c123.4$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.8117958.1%104 W · 75 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc08…6b85backed Jay Clarke56c121.93$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.281,10352.9%583 W · 520 L+2.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa55c…1066backed Jay Clarke72c119.58$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.144349%217 W · 226 L-0.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d2b…5271backed Jay Clarke25c118.82$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.43661.1%22 W · 14 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick59cpaid-7.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9663…5b70backed Matias Soto48c111.41$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.9385748.2%413 W · 444 L+33.7wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5572…f01ebacked Jay Clarke62c109.83$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.1457953.7%311 W · 268 L+19.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid-11%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0362…449ebacked Jay Clarke57c107.16$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0846556.1%261 W · 204 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick54cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc11…c87bbacked Jay Clarke57c107.16$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.0824546.5%114 W · 131 L-13.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-11.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc82d…7199backed Matias Soto44c106.3$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.532548%12 W · 13 L+1.5wins+0.06per pick42cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed Jay Clarke23c106$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.3824632.9%81 W · 165 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98a7…b766backed Matias Soto50c100$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5060943.3%264 W · 345 L-24.4wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-18.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb2e3…4874backed Matias Soto78c100$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.0691880.5%739 W · 179 L+39.3wins+0.04per pick76cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xecae…b906backed Jay Clarke71c100$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$711,02646.8%480 W · 546 L+14.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f55…4213backed Jay Clarke62c96$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.521442.9%6 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fab…708bbacked Matias Soto50c94.4$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.061,27630.4%388 W · 888 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-6.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.