Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5cd0ff26881aab84d2affe93d5ca1d6e0db8ec64dee6ea60fa53d9f805a8d41a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,081
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,745
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,081 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed No | 71c | 1,240$885 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.86 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 32c | 794.23$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.23 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 28c | 544.53$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.6 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 77c | 333.4$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.16 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 24c | 271.69$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.95 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 70c | 267$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 68c | 214$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.48 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 43c | 191.94$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.81 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 66c | 150.77$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 64c | 145.71$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.47 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed No | 73c | 141.14$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.77 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 32c | 126.07$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 35c | 110.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 68c | 99.88$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 29c | 92.2$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 23c | 83.66$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.24 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked Yes | 32c | 80.44$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b4…73cdbacked No | 62c | 78$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.56 | 631 | 43.1%272 W · 359 L | -14.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 75c | 77.78$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.36 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 61c | 76.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.04 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 73c | 74.49$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.11 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 29c | 73$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.11 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 29c | 72.48$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.02 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 69.44$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.22 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 35c | 68$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 33c | 61.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.19 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 32c | 61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 71c | 61$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.69 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x234c…90dbbacked Yes | 39c | 51.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 581 | 38.9%226 W · 355 L | +10.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1fe9…64adbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 213 | 39%83 W · 130 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 73c | 47$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.69 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed Yes | 40c | 46.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 33c | 46$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4647…d97fbacked Yes | 28c | 40$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 105 | 60%63 W · 42 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce5…6233backed Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 135 | 59.3%80 W · 55 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 65cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3636…34c4backed No | 65c | 39.79$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.93 | 292 | 81.5%238 W · 54 L | +27.9wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes | 36c | 33.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.95 | 543 | 35%190 W · 353 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…1697backed No | 75c | 29.69$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7aa…ddd6backed No | 74c | 28.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.36 | 1,274 | 50.9%649 W · 625 L | -35.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb924…0803backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 260 | 67.3%175 W · 85 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43fd…59d3backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 159 | 61.6%98 W · 61 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked Yes | 40c | 24.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 47c | 24.68$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.18 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 24.48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xede4…1c40backed No | 70c | 24.23$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 153 | 69.9%107 W · 46 L | -6.4wins | -0.04per pick | 74cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 70c | 24.11$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 62c | 20.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.99 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 59c | 20.62$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee25…63ccbacked No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 200 | 56.5%113 W · 87 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked No | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.91 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18c3…2a14backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 62c | 19.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.24 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 69c | 18.91$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 72c | 16.37$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.58 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.