Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf36e3cee3f2409643f85c610ed1106c03a3a1970350125a8181165ddbff8810e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,012
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,405
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,012 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed No | 55c | 1,469$803 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$803.01 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 41c | 1,047$428 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$618.82 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 47c | 1,015$474 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.77 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a4…f148backed Yes | 39c | 708.41$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.1 | 1,429 | 34.5%493 W · 936 L | -6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 56c | 439.56$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.88 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 303.41$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.84 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed Yes | 45c | 300$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 8c | 280.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x655c…4420backed Yes | 49c | 274$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.74 | 895 | 57.2%512 W · 383 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 22c | 261.97$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.15 | 2,617 | 59.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L | -41.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 53c | 238.91$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.54 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 19c | 235.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.98 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a31…5af1backed No | 50c | 224.92$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.35 | 707 | 41.7%295 W · 412 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 45c | 224.89$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 539 | 25.6%138 W · 401 L | -18.4wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed Yes | 47c | 190.78$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.09 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 53c | 182.39$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.67 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 44c | 153.4$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.9 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 66c | 150$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 51c | 150$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.49 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 41c | 140$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.8 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 62c | 128$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.92 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda07…62a0backed Yes | 47c | 117.68$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.88 | 201 | 33.3%67 W · 134 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed Yes | 50c | 116$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9eda…6e19backed No | 66c | 100$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 775 | 55.2%428 W · 347 L | -13.9wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 56c | 98.79$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.81 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c1b…d915backed Yes | 39c | 91.64$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.7 | 263 | 44.9%118 W · 145 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 53c | 90$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.74 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b29…f288backed No | 60c | 90$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 100 | 44%44 W · 56 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa71d…29f0backed No | 48c | 86$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.28 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 23c | 82.64$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 56c | 77.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.79 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 31c | 74.18$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.23 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68af…2639backed Yes | 42c | 68.91$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 43c | 68.07$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.55 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd4d1…1733backed No | 42c | 67.86$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 213 | 38.5%82 W · 131 L | -9.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1096…a162backed Yes | 40c | 64$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.4 | 475 | 38.1%181 W · 294 L | +15.9wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0982…24e3backed Yes | 47c | 60$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.1 | 351 | 37.9%133 W · 218 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked Yes | 49c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.6 | 542 | 53%287 W · 255 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x517d…f41fbacked No | 41c | 58.37$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.09 | 130 | 48.5%63 W · 67 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes | 61c | 57.51$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 657 | 49.8%327 W · 330 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 44c | 55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.8 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed Yes | 28c | 54.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.14 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed No | 53c | 54.1$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.44 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes | 78c | 53.6$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 419 | 66.6%279 W · 140 L | +36.9wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 67c | 50.81$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.88 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed Yes | 26c | 50$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb21b…c396backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 232 | 41.8%97 W · 135 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d69…7a63backed No | 52c | 47.28$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.58 | 1,075 | 54.8%589 W · 486 L | -17.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 46c | 45.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 49c | 45$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.95 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 57c | 43.13$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.6 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 58c | 40.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.44 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb259…9207backed No | 65c | 38.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.89 | 110 | 27.3%30 W · 80 L | -22.3wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 32-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes | 46c | 38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.38 | 1,169 | 59.4%694 W · 475 L | +30.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked Yes | 54c | 36.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.94 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 70c | 35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 57c | 34.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.83 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes | 43c | 34.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.83 | 54 | 38.9%21 W · 33 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes | 76c | 33.95$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.23 | 126 | 60.3%76 W · 50 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 37c | 33.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 34c | 32.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6268…1697backed Yes | 49c | 31.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.35 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa016…67c2backed No | 55c | 31.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 511 | 56.6%289 W · 222 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed Yes | 62c | 31.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.83 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 46c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.2 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 54c | 29.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked No | 56c | 29.39$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.58 | 927 | 61.7%572 W · 355 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 36c | 29.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x1894…a936backed Yes | 44c | 26.47$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.76 | 667 | 58%387 W · 280 L | +48.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfddf…1686backed No | 58c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.13 | 641 | 67.6%433 W · 208 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb8…7809backed Yes | 47c | 25.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.63 | 135 | 54.1%73 W · 62 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x462d…b31dbacked Yes | 45c | 25.47$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.01 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.24per pick | 54cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x180e…29dfbacked Yes | 45c | 25.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 508 | 60.4%307 W · 201 L | +18.3wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 1,285 | 32.8%422 W · 863 L | +24.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbab…9c6dbacked No | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf86c…9074backed Yes | 59c | 24.92$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | -3.3wins | -0.14per pick | 39cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 57c | 24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0a…004ebacked Yes | 44c | 23.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 283 | 68.6%194 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 69cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8383…cb59backed No | 46c | 22$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 495 | 43.6%216 W · 279 L | +31.2wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 62c | 20.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.81 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca75…0a64backed No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 1,010 | 58.1%587 W · 423 L | -34.0wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0294…76a0backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 152 | 46.1%70 W · 82 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb777…a722backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 78 | 52.6%41 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 219 | 50.7%111 W · 108 L | -10.6wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd90e…03b6backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,148 | 49.6%569 W · 579 L | -34.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813f…26ecbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 809 | 62.1%502 W · 307 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb814…dd31backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 111 | 54.1%60 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 169 | 46.7%79 W · 90 L | -13.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 182 | 54.4%99 W · 83 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 153 | 45.1%69 W · 84 L | -11.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cf…ea22backed Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -6.1wins | -0.13per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xced6…2dc1backed No | 61c | 19.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 280 | 68.6%192 W · 88 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 60c | 19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 96-97°F on August 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.