TailMyPicks
Market

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 92-93°F on August 1?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$15,012
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$16,405

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,012 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed No55c1,469$803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.011,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes41c1,047$428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$618.824,52526.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L+62.2wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-21.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc9de…81d9backed Yes47c1,015$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.7742036.4%153 W · 267 L+12.3wins+0.03per pick34cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a4…f148backed Yes39c708.41$274 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.11,42934.5%493 W · 936 L-6.8wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No56c439.56$247 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$246.8847136.5%172 W · 299 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-23.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes38c303.41$116 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.848,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c0a…a2c3backed Yes45c300$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1651,28051.2%655 W · 625 L-33.7wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-5.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes45c300$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1651,24352.5%652 W · 591 L-18.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x229c…b966backed No8c280.31$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.991,56737.2%583 W · 984 L+243.6wins+0.16per pick22cpaid+25.1%equal weight67+0.15 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed Yes49c274$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.7489557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No22c261.97$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.152,61759.5%1,556 W · 1,061 L-41.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No53c238.91$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.5410,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No19c235.65$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.984,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9a31…5af1backed No50c224.92$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.3570741.7%295 W · 412 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No45c224.89$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10153925.6%138 W · 401 L-18.4wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-40.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11056543.5%246 W · 319 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed Yes47c190.78$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.094,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No53c182.39$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.674,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes44c153.4$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.99,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfc92…27c9backed No66c150$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9963255.7%352 W · 280 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No51c150$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.494,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes41c140$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.81,04834.5%362 W · 686 L+24.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+5.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No62c128$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.929,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda07…62a0backed Yes47c117.68$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.8820133.3%67 W · 134 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed Yes50c116$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$582,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5585049.8%423 W · 427 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5570148.4%339 W · 362 L-5.9wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9eda…6e19backed No66c100$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6677555.2%428 W · 347 L-13.9wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No56c98.79$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.814,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5c1b…d915backed Yes39c91.64$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.726344.9%118 W · 145 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick39cpaid+12%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No53c90$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.745,38956%3,017 W · 2,372 L-120.8wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b29…f288backed No60c90$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5410044%44 W · 56 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa71d…29f0backed No48c86$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.282240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No23c82.64$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.951,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No56c77.57$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.7912,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes31c74.18$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.233,83047.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L+63.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68af…2639backed Yes42c68.91$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.919048.9%44 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes43c68.07$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.554,34729.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L+19.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid-8.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd4d1…1733backed No42c67.86$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.621338.5%82 W · 131 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1096…a162backed Yes40c64$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.447538.1%181 W · 294 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x0982…24e3backed Yes47c60$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.135137.9%133 W · 218 L+2.9wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked Yes49c60$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.654253%287 W · 255 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x517d…f41fbacked No41c58.37$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.0913048.5%63 W · 67 L+5.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x213e…5e0fbacked Yes61c57.51$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.1765749.8%327 W · 330 L-8.4wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes44c55$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.82,67430%803 W · 1,871 L+5.4wins0.00per pick30cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef61…2ee6backed Yes28c54.14$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1433550.4%169 W · 166 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9aa8…63a4backed No53c54.1$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4411525.2%29 W · 86 L-9.8wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-24.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7bbe…b95ebacked Yes78c53.6$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.7841966.6%279 W · 140 L+36.9wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+13.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No67c50.81$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.883,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8c93…8967backed Yes26c50$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3744448.6%216 W · 228 L-3.8wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb21b…c396backed Yes32c50$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3423241.8%97 W · 135 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick39cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d69…7a63backed No52c47.28$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.581,07554.8%589 W · 486 L-17.0wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-2.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No46c45.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9412,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes49c45$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.9554735.5%194 W · 353 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes57c43.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.699962.8%627 W · 372 L+37.5wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+2.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8827…5d62backed No58c40.69$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.441,77250.5%895 W · 877 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb259…9207backed No65c38.59$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8911027.3%30 W · 80 L-22.3wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-40.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick
0x3dd1…557ebacked Yes46c38$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.381,16959.4%694 W · 475 L+30.3wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+0.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4248…60abbacked Yes54c36.82$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.942,21958.7%1,303 W · 916 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…6597backed No55c35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.2599571.1%707 W · 288 L+22.0wins+0.02per pick69cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No70c35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.53,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x24e8…4546backed No57c34.79$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.833,06553.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L-97.2wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-7.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea5…0b15backed Yes43c34.79$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.835438.9%21 W · 33 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed0c…fccdbacked Yes76c33.95$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.2312660.3%76 W · 50 L-6.0wins-0.05per pick65cpaid-9.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes37c33.95$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.435,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No34c32.43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.066,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6268…1697backed Yes49c31.82$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.353100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+65.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa016…67c2backed No55c31.82$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.3951156.6%289 W · 222 L-0.7wins0.00per pick57cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc556…9720backed Yes62c31.13$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8325549%125 W · 130 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3c11…33c9backed No40c30$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1289661.7%553 W · 343 L+15.2wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe695…538ebacked Yes46c30$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.281855%450 W · 368 L+1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No54c29.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.22,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae7a…25eabacked No56c29.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5892761.7%572 W · 355 L+5.5wins+0.01per pick61cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked No36c29.34$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.629262.5%23 W · 903 L-379.9wins-0.41per pick44cpaid-90.2%equal weight6-0.40 edge/pick
0x1894…a936backed Yes44c26.47$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.7666758%387 W · 280 L+48.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfddf…1686backed No58c26$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.1364167.6%433 W · 208 L+14.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5cb8…7809backed Yes47c25.73$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.6313554.1%73 W · 62 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x462d…b31dbacked Yes45c25.47$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.01977.8%7 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.24per pick54cpaid+45.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x180e…29dfbacked Yes45c25.17$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.8450860.4%307 W · 201 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick57cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes44c25$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141,28532.8%422 W · 863 L+24.3wins+0.02per pick31cpaid+7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcbab…9c6dbacked No60c25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf86c…9074backed Yes59c24.92$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.222425%6 W · 18 L-3.3wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-49.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No57c24$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.73,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0a…004ebacked Yes44c23.99$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4328368.6%194 W · 89 L-0.6wins0.00per pick69cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8383…cb59backed No46c22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1249543.6%216 W · 279 L+31.2wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa047…4ffabacked No62c20.76$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8176059.2%450 W · 310 L-15.6wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca75…0a64backed No54c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.81,01058.1%587 W · 423 L-34.0wins-0.03per pick61cpaid-4.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0294…76a0backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1015246.1%70 W · 82 L-10.6wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-11.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb777…a722backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107852.6%41 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.08per pick60cpaid-9.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1021950.7%111 W · 108 L-10.6wins-0.05per pick56cpaid-10.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd90e…03b6backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,14849.6%569 W · 579 L-34.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x813f…26ecbacked No53c20$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.680962.1%502 W · 307 L-22.9wins-0.03per pick65cpaid-5.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb814…dd31backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1011154.1%60 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8adb…9e1dbacked Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1016946.7%79 W · 90 L-13.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x21d3…8c5fbacked Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1013351.1%68 W · 65 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1018254.4%99 W · 83 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1015345.1%69 W · 84 L-11.3wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3cf…ea22backed Yes50c20$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104847.9%23 W · 25 L-6.1wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-19.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xced6…2dc1backed No61c19.35$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.8228068.6%192 W · 88 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcdbc…bd73backed No60c19$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.491861.5%565 W · 353 L+1.6wins0.00per pick61cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.