IPO · resolved market
Will CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ce196797404d39840201bfa358417c12df1d06ae930a31e082e40cd6687ec29
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,190,744
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $2,172,134
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,190,744 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfc54…d4dcbacked No | 0c | 2,100,000$4,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,200 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 0c | 11,368$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.54 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd22…7b17backed No | 1c | 6,485$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…8776backed No | 10c | 4,925$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$480.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48db…bc44backed No | 2c | 4,003$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe78e…6073backed No | 1c | 2,777$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8cd…0d51backed No | 3c | 2,331$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa698…db5ebacked No | 4c | 2,030$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad3…6871backed Yes | 54c | 1,640$890 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.99 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +84.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked No | 2c | 1,451$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.11per pick | 9cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d86…1cb2backed No | 6c | 1,299$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.09 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 10c | 1,208$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.2 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -55.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f7…141abacked No | 2c | 1,085$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed No | 10c | 400$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.25 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b92…931dbacked No | 13c | 389.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 3c | 368.73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 46c | 320$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.2 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 44cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 10c | 294$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.9 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 6c | 266.63$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.36 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 14c | 230$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.2 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 5c | 226$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8533…7c76backed No | 14c | 214.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 46c | 200$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92 | 144 | 25.7%37 W · 107 L | -9.8wins | -0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -48.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5f2…d72dbacked No | 16c | 200$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x758b…0a1cbacked No | 13c | 179.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.53 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.14per pick | 46cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb177…ceeebacked No | 12c | 168.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38a8…865abacked No | 13c | 153$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.89 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c11…99a1backed No | 13c | 150$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae19…5cb0backed No | 14c | 138.97$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 10c | 120$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…95f4backed No | 11c | 120$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2da3…3895backed No | 13c | 115$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bef…3b06backed No | 45c | 105.26$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf763…8d83backed No | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 78c | 92$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | -16.7wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 15c | 86.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x509d…0799backed No | 22c | 78.77$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 22c | 75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 56 | 3.6%2 W · 54 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 10cpaid | -79%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed No | 15c | 73$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.74 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa79a…88d0backed No | 46c | 71.25$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 47c | 60$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.47per pick | 47cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a34…56cfbacked No | 41c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.5wins | -0.25per pick | 55cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x96ee…0662backed No | 36c | 60$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 79c | 59.72$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 92 | 15.2%14 W · 78 L | -16.3wins | -0.18per pick | 33cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb57e…0b91backed No | 46c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac4…efa0backed No | 23c | 45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf3a…cdddbacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfe…4306backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9a7…20fbbacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a08…1a00backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x266b…afaabacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc209…7082backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20b8…fc2fbacked No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x81b9…38f8backed No | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb119…680bbacked Yes | 68c | 33.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6f2…3ef5backed No | 32c | 31.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 80c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.6 | 32 | 93.8%30 W · 2 L | +6.6wins | +0.21per pick | 73cpaid | +28.3%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will CXMT’s market cap be 400 billion yuan or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?this page
- Will CXMT not IPO by December 31, 2026?No won
- Will CXMT’s market cap be between 280 billion and 310 billion yuan at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?No won
- Will CXMT’s market cap be between 340 billion and 370 billion yuan at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?No won
- Will CXMT’s market cap be less than 250 billion yuan at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.