Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d34e4d479cde986f671f6fdbe493c864ccac010f3b8bcd4e0237e4d42954eba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,072
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,469
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,072 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7c4d…bb01backed Yes | 21c | 1,233$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.31 | 218 | 29.4%64 W · 154 L | +5.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 78c | 805.32$627 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.71 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 18c | 708.45$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.72 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08b1…f05bbacked Yes | 18c | 462.83$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.32 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee0c…3e4dbacked Yes | 26c | 422.16$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09b4…e56dbacked Yes | 22c | 362.02$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.19 | 720 | 42.2%304 W · 416 L | +26.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed Yes | 27c | 325.74$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 300$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.25 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…395bbacked Yes | 18c | 274.5$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.78 | 336 | 28.9%97 W · 239 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 21c | 256.73$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.12 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 24c | 222$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 78c | 196$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.12 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e89…e7edbacked Yes | 28c | 182.7$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.16 | 547 | 35.5%194 W · 353 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 19c | 171.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.68 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ab7…0bd3backed Yes | 17c | 167.7$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 445 | 36.6%163 W · 282 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 79c | 165.07$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.37 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…1c25backed Yes | 22c | 161.84$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.2 | 1,048 | 34.5%362 W · 686 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 26c | 156.31$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.18 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 23c | 143.48$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.14 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 79c | 140$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed Yes | 29c | 139.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2,225 | 49.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 72c | 129.82$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 25c | 116.61$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked Yes | 28c | 116.33$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.57 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 74c | 115$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.35 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.2 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 77c | 107.1$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.31 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 80c | 107$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc878…a6f3backed No | 78c | 106.2$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.82 | 156 | 46.8%73 W · 83 L | +6.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2851…6b8cbacked Yes | 28c | 101.92$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.84 | 683 | 38.8%265 W · 418 L | +36.1wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 20c | 99.52$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 726 | 24.8%180 W · 546 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 24c | 98.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.23 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 20c | 93.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.53 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 17c | 90.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa8…63a4backed Yes | 18c | 90.1$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 115 | 25.2%29 W · 86 L | -9.8wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cdebacked Yes | 20c | 80.86$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 289 | 46%133 W · 156 L | +14.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 27c | 80.34$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.54 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaddf…b8febacked No | 77c | 77.92$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.92 | 286 | 66.8%191 W · 95 L | +9.1wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2d…da35backed No | 78c | 74.51$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.74 | 271 | 69%187 W · 84 L | +15.4wins | +0.06per pick | 63cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed Yes | 25c | 73.2$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 21c | 67.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.35 | 1,122 | 24.4%274 W · 848 L | +24.8wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 21c | 62.05$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.21 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 23c | 58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5bb3…2c94backed Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 149 | 19.5%29 W · 120 L | +3.7wins | +0.03per pick | 17cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fd6…1733backed Yes | 29c | 52.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 37.5%21 W · 35 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 75c | 50.58$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.53 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd338…9fd3backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | -14.3wins | -0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 26c | 47.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa087…91f7backed Yes | 24c | 46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 176 | 35.2%62 W · 114 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 76c | 44$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x885f…7bf9backed No | 73c | 41.05$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.11 | 546 | 56.4%308 W · 238 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…16a0backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 23 | 73.9%17 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 69cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 76c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 899 | 51.6%464 W · 435 L | -40.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d08…54c9backed No | 74c | 37.95$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.84 | 83 | 56.6%47 W · 36 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 73c | 32.64$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked No | 76c | 32.47$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.79 | 722 | 22.3%161 W · 561 L | -37.3wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -47.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1325…8fd1backed No | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.5wins | +0.25per pick | 65cpaid | +39.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb615…62b9backed No | 80c | 28.88$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.79 | 605 | 50.7%307 W · 298 L | -15.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82cc…d569backed No | 71c | 28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 111 | 73%81 W · 30 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ea…7367backed No | 71c | 27.76$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.05 | 1,896 | 61.5%1,166 W · 730 L | -5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 78c | 25.64$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.64 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558f…1a56backed No | 68c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 548 | 67.3%369 W · 179 L | +26.4wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8177…e5d4backed No | 79c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.25 | 89 | 76.4%68 W · 21 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 71cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 24.17$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.86 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 76c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.04 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6e…70fabacked No | 76c | 20.9$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.02 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 69cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 72c | 20.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 78c | 20.09$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.43 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7f…2015backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4042…7055backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…27c9backed No | 71c | 19.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 632 | 55.7%352 W · 280 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 68c | 17.65$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.65 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 15.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.47 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 15.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.95 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on August 8?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.