TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 32°C or higher on August 8?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$27,796
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$34,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,796 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 121 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd251…4d37backed Yes58c1,850$1,079 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.461,69742.4%720 W · 977 L+56.9wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f42…cd3cbacked No30c1,655$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50012851.6%66 W · 62 L-13.1wins-0.10per pick62cpaid-25.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x88e0…ceeebacked Yes57c1,357$770 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.717345.2%33 W · 40 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No39c1,351$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$532.9110,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x044f…d1f1backed Yes53c1,318$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$613.958,16249.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L+269.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7e9c…f3a8backed Yes52c880.35$457 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$423.2260236.5%220 W · 382 L-2.4wins0.00per pick37cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc878…a6f3backed Yes70c654.98$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.1415646.8%73 W · 83 L+6.6wins+0.04per pick43cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c4d…bb01backed No46c647.54$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30021829.4%64 W · 154 L+5.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-12.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No38c636.24$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.771,31656.2%740 W · 576 L-18.6wins-0.01per pick58cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xffd0…cd07backed No46c593$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.062,31157.7%1,334 W · 977 L-19.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6c8…11a0backed Yes53c564.19$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$264.193855.3%21 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+23%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes49c510.85$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$260.5323731.6%75 W · 162 L-0.2wins0.00per pick32cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No43c432.91$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.114,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca2…1798backed No30c369.97$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.291533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No47c303.46$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.023,64265.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L+33.6wins+0.01per pick65cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5203…b975backed Yes64c299.79$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.318641.4%77 W · 109 L-0.6wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No42c297.15$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.844,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No34c282.5$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.4272222.3%161 W · 561 L-37.3wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-47.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No44c270.04$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.984,25765.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L+17.6wins0.00per pick65cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No30c254.09$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.416,59253.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L+400.2wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-6.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x457e…72ddbacked No32c248.99$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0813444.8%60 W · 74 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+8.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf73f…ee53backed No18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362,95033.6%992 W · 1,958 L+9.9wins0.00per pick33cpaid+4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No46c171$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.292,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes70c170.17$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.662,09056.7%1,186 W · 904 L+60.1wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-3.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes71c164.83$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.332,04657%1,167 W · 879 L+73.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed No39c156.9$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.742,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9418…e9f8backed Yes54c154.99$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.031,10830%332 W · 776 L-38.1wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-13.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked No23c153.2$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.763,47433.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L-175.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-28.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x30fb…7db4backed No44c149.07$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.324,11747.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L-158.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc057…0c9abacked Yes69c144.87$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.876820.6%14 W · 54 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick23cpaid-11.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb6fb…c038backed Yes72c142$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.7643932.8%144 W · 295 L+20.3wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f1f…eb96backed No39c140$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3523146.3%107 W · 124 L-8.6wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe2d…da35backed No47c134.99$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.8727169%187 W · 84 L+15.4wins+0.06per pick63cpaid+10.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes75c131.69$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.55,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b8b…2512backed Yes75c130.56$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.192,09357.1%1,196 W · 897 L+71.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ae4…fc82backed No49c119.8$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.872,53050.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L-48.9wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08b1…f05bbacked Yes64c110$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.62437.5%9 W · 15 L+0.8wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-13.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No40c107$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.035,63159.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L-111.1wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No16c105.59$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.814,26753.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L+156.0wins+0.04per pick50cpaid-4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x655c…4420backed No48c104$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9289557.2%512 W · 383 L+7.7wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No40c102$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.989,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3653…ef74backed Yes72c100.48$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.452,12457.4%1,220 W · 904 L+69.9wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-2.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1fe…cafebacked Yes53c98.53$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.5320452%106 W · 98 L+3.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked No35c96.52$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.8330834.4%106 W · 202 L+0.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes76c94$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.56,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53e1…f420backed No42c92.55$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.872556%14 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeacb…022dbacked No32c89.7$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.811163.6%7 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick69cpaid-16.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8857…4b5bbacked Yes56c89$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.1622740.5%92 W · 135 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29ef…dddabacked No45c85.13$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.6518247.3%86 W · 96 L-10.7wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-11.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked No37c84.41$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.4879947.9%383 W · 416 L-24.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-20%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No40c82.79$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.514,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bbd…3bedbacked No58c80.46$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8237541.6%156 W · 219 L-52.4wins-0.14per pick56cpaid-28%equal weight35-0.13 edge/pick
0x3c3a…8792backed Yes70c80$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2418045.6%82 W · 98 L-3.9wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes51c79.09$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.099,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes54c76.56$41 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.225,89749.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L-103.3wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes64c72.97$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.0112,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes60c71.32$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.593,36631.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L-34.1wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-29.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5d…d8b5backed Yes70c70.95$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.959728.9%28 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick29cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd55…f905backed No44c70$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.94,54758.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L-107.5wins-0.02per pick61cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x06da…af33backed Yes35c68.57$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8625332%81 W · 172 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick31cpaid+4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb46…56e7backed No28c63.94$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1842148%202 W · 219 L+4.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes70c62.32$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.692,06556.3%1,163 W · 902 L+56.7wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes71c61.9$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.962,07558.9%1,223 W · 852 L+102.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+0.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked No33c60.37$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.833,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes69c56.69$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.312,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1abc…45e7backed Yes71c56.41$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.452,09958.3%1,224 W · 875 L+83.2wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+0.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f0b…d571backed Yes71c56.06$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.062,22549.2%1,094 W · 1,131 L-12.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-5.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf27a…78d8backed Yes72c55.6$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.624942.6%106 W · 143 L-1.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No41c54.94$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.591,92853.5%1,032 W · 896 L+39.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b49…2e46backed Yes62c52.81$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.075267.3%35 W · 17 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x025e…bb39backed No35c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.510554.3%57 W · 48 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick57cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33e8…dc93backed No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.523941.4%99 W · 140 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x450f…c578backed Yes70c50$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153060%18 W · 12 L+4.6wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+36.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x10fb…4651backed No37c50$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.453943.6%17 W · 22 L0.0wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2b58…d734backed No45c50$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.515534.2%53 W · 102 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb68…e362backed Yes71c49.76$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.652,11859.1%1,251 W · 867 L+107.9wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x379a…4b1abacked Yes50c49.41$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4942948%206 W · 223 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No32c48.77$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.681,35930.2%411 W · 948 L-92.9wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-22.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x69f0…fb27backed Yes72c48.5$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.712,11858.2%1,233 W · 885 L+78.8wins+0.04per pick54cpaid-3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc179…5cdebacked No31c47.92$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1528946%133 W · 156 L+14.6wins+0.05per pick41cpaid+5.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd4d1…1733backed No37c47.91$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.921338.5%82 W · 131 L-9.8wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-27.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed No43c45.8$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.827,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x334d…7acbbacked No33c45.45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152454.2%13 W · 11 L-3.0wins-0.12per pick67cpaid-20.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c18…32c3backed No44c40$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.61,04362.9%656 W · 387 L-11.9wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x020c…f6c9backed Yes67c40$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.21973.7%14 W · 5 L+3.3wins+0.18per pick56cpaid+42.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4184…c863backed No26c39.83$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2289951.6%464 W · 435 L-40.0wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xabfc…173ebacked No55c37.04$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.377755.8%43 W · 34 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+13.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x38e2…2909backed No31c36.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.293,47953%1,845 W · 1,634 L+72.1wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf456…d568backed Yes56c35.71$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.7121338%81 W · 132 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick36cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed Yes77c35.65$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.32,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32a7…a84bbacked Yes56c35.64$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.8620739.1%81 W · 126 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddb…6a89backed No33c34.01$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1138454.9%211 W · 173 L+26.3wins+0.07per pick48cpaid+11.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf143…4ef2backed Yes61c33.72$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.154766%31 W · 16 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick63cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4bf1…7cb7backed No45c31.67$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.259169.2%63 W · 28 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick66cpaid+7.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3473…e864backed No32c31.25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1011134.2%38 W · 73 L-5.6wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-20.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9b27…5197backed No49c30$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.71827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.7wins-0.21per pick48cpaid-53.3%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xc662…0927backed No46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.71,19057.9%689 W · 501 L-5.0wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xebb1…e7afbacked Yes56c30$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.257545%259 W · 316 L+26.6wins+0.05per pick40cpaid+13%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No47c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.163,30165%2,147 W · 1,154 L-38.5wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb259…9207backed Yes62c29.79$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.3311027.3%30 W · 80 L-22.3wins-0.20per pick48cpaid-40.6%equal weight32-0.17 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.