Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d44d756bc7496f77a4bdbe5a734c63118216e04d8c7722cf2a8db8bfe91a47f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,660
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,223
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,660 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 8c | 933.45$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.78 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 6c | 782$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.58 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c57…372dbacked Yes | 52c | 693.64$360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.59 | 1,531 | 24.2%371 W · 1,160 L | +15.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 68c | 581.61$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.09 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c9e…3a21backed Yes | 49c | 519.54$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.36 | 1,174 | 54.9%644 W · 530 L | +49.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba63…36dcbacked Yes | 32c | 415.27$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.32 | 402 | 37.1%149 W · 253 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 43c | 232.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.77 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 14c | 231.12$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.5 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30d…f053backed Yes | 67c | 220.5$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.84 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -22%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 37c | 193.34$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.92 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 59c | 189.06$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.11 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc518…2594backed No | 34c | 162.33$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.47 | 1,928 | 53.5%1,032 W · 896 L | +39.0wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 32c | 154.89$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.02 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 29c | 144.49$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd2…9ab1backed No | 22c | 128.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.37 | 91 | 53.8%49 W · 42 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…1d87backed Yes | 57c | 126.27$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.39 | 71 | 33.8%24 W · 47 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 72c | 123.38$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.53 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 70c | 107.27$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.98 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 106.1$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.64 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 99.99$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.99 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 45c | 94.32$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.11 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7c…b00dbacked No | 63c | 90$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.7 | 786 | 63.6%500 W · 286 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 18c | 83$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 45c | 65.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.58 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 55c | 62$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 59.05$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed No | 67c | 55.39$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.39 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…aaabbacked Yes | 38c | 52.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.77 | 421 | 51.8%218 W · 203 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…619abacked No | 53c | 50.79$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 274 | 64.6%177 W · 97 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 66c | 50.3$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 1,115 | 63.4%707 W · 408 L | +29.7wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 43c | 50.21$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.69 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x63b8…cf6cbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…cdc4backed Yes | 46c | 49.94$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.87 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 56c | 42.9$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.05 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 59c | 41.34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.32 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52fc…c095backed Yes | 33c | 41.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…4fefbacked Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 195 | 31.3%61 W · 134 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf30c…a7a7backed No | 65c | 37.18$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 69cpaid | -55%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3eb…b529backed Yes | 30c | 36.89$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.97 | 616 | 29.4%181 W · 435 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 53c | 36.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.48 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…5a47backed Yes | 51c | 35.38$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 67c | 35$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed No | 66c | 33$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.78 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 66c | 32.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.29 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 63c | 31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 38c | 31$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed Yes | 51c | 30.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.9 | 373 | 55%205 W · 168 L | +20.5wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +12%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 54c | 30$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe85e…79febacked Yes | 80c | 28.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.81 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 48c | 23.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.23 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8f…f793backed Yes | 79c | 22.74$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe037…8a91backed No | 53c | 22.64$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 178 | 41.6%74 W · 104 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 53c | 20.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.67 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4a…68afbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ec…5c9fbacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf2f…1d7bbacked Yes | 65c | 19.92$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 40 | 60%24 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…b1b2backed No | 54c | 19.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.48 | 39 | 41%16 W · 23 L | -3.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 18.65$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 31°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 32°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 34°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 35°C or higher on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.