Serie A · resolved market

FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5d9a1f2929b9163a192e4a3a59e29fb2f199a5445bbc5a6e4460b8ae0e0cc5ce

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: May 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $60,802
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $60,556

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $60,802 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Serie A
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x204f…5e14backed Under	56c	17,983$10,076 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,907.1	2,538	45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L	+13.8wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5f0…dc1dbacked Over	47c	10,312$4,891 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,891.22	189	23.8%45 W · 144 L	-13.2wins	-0.07per pick	31cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0346…52a5backed Over	41c	6,794$2,806 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,805.95	342	39.2%134 W · 208 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	39cpaid	-15.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf658…655ebacked Over	52c	5,385$2,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,800	38	63.2%24 W · 14 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	58cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9db8…2effbacked Under	40c	3,412$1,376 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,036.12	24	50%12 W · 12 L	+1.7wins	+0.07per pick	43cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Under	43c	3,337$1,435 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,902.01	326	50.6%165 W · 161 L	+12.4wins	+0.04per pick	47cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb184…b6c6backed Over	37c	3,243$1,200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,200	39	23.1%9 W · 30 L	-4.5wins	-0.12per pick	35cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3fd9…1ef0backed Under	38c	3,239$1,231 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,008.21	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+2.2wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5fac…2f27backed Over	62c	2,000$1,240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,240	4	50%2 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Under	42c	1,994$837 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,156.43	687	50.8%349 W · 338 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xd146…9bf0backed Over	34c	1,980$673 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$673.03	68	39.7%27 W · 41 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	38cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f37…281bbacked Over	26c	1,808$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$470	40	17.5%7 W · 33 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	23cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5522…c807backed Under	80c	1,400$1,120 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$280	7	57.1%4 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.13per pick	70cpaid	-27%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over	12c	1,353$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.88	1,981	39.8%788 W · 1,193 L	-7.5wins	0.00per pick	40cpaid	-23.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Over	58c	1,338$773 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$772.6	364	56.3%205 W · 159 L	+19.7wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7138…8c89backed Over	62c	996.38$617 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$617.28	159	46.5%74 W · 85 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	+6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Under	44c	898.21$395 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$503	33	48.5%16 W · 17 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	45cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Over	2c	855.84$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.67	204	31.4%64 W · 140 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Over	34c	800$269 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$268.95	52	19.2%10 W · 42 L	-3.4wins	-0.07per pick	26cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7f29…f03dbacked Over	48c	771.7$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370	90	54.4%49 W · 41 L	+7.6wins	+0.08per pick	46cpaid	+17.8%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xdb25…eb12backed Under	65c	740.36$482 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$257.96	68	52.9%36 W · 32 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+31.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Over	44c	636.47$280 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.03	910	43.3%394 W · 516 L	-14.1wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x325f…4511backed Under	49c	513.76$249 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$264.37	397	40.6%161 W · 236 L	-3.1wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4fad…fdc0backed Over	4c	482.05$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.72	22	22.7%5 W · 17 L	+0.9wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Under	41c	460.99$191 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$269.81	419	54.7%229 W · 190 L	+7.7wins	+0.02per pick	53cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6367…5160backed Under	36c	439.24$158 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281.11	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.6wins	+0.64per pick	36cpaid	+177.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over	46c	387$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.29	225	45.3%102 W · 123 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-16.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4d0…a1c5backed Over	41c	317.2$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	29	41.4%12 W · 17 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50e3…3792backed Over	44c	300$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.19per pick	44cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Under	43c	299.08$128 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$170.64	274	53.3%146 W · 128 L	+18.0wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbed…c35ebacked Over	64c	233.41$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.6wins	-0.64per pick	64cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8968…c3c1backed Over	59c	222.03$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131	50	54%27 W · 23 L	+2.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xef48…3448backed Over	64c	205.83$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.73	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.07per pick	56cpaid	+2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7018…290abacked Over	61c	200$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	30	50%15 W · 15 L	-0.9wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Over	41c	196.16$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.31	144	42.4%61 W · 83 L	-7.5wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x435d…c52abacked Under	37c	191.57$71 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$120.69	30	20%6 W · 24 L	-1.6wins	-0.05per pick	25cpaid	-41.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc263…1e83backed Under	67c	178.63$119 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$59.35	42	71.4%30 W · 12 L	+3.7wins	+0.09per pick	63cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x26f2…1761backed Over	57c	175.44$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-3.5wins	-0.58per pick	58cpaid	-100%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Under	64c	172.77$111 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.45	411	44.3%182 W · 229 L	+2.6wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	-18.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Over	60c	161.94$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.16	98	57.1%56 W · 42 L	+7.5wins	+0.08per pick	49cpaid	+15.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2e73…3f4ebacked Under	58c	161.3$93 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$67.83	113	60.2%68 W · 45 L	+3.4wins	+0.03per pick	57cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Over	58c	155.36$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.31	153	54.2%83 W · 70 L	+11.3wins	+0.07per pick	47cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over	62c	142.52$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.1	985	44.9%442 W · 543 L	-17.3wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under	42c	141$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$81.78	423	47.8%202 W · 221 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	47cpaid	-1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Under	73c	136.99$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.99	51	35.3%18 W · 33 L	-6.8wins	-0.13per pick	49cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0xec56…1816backed Under	55c	135$74 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.38	49	42.9%21 W · 28 L	-4.8wins	-0.10per pick	53cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x055a…12ddbacked Over	40c	117.88$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-1.5wins	-0.50per pick	50cpaid	-100%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcce5…7eb2backed Under	45c	111.11$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.11	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-12%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5df5…c44cbacked Over	39c	100.25$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.86	217	48.8%106 W · 111 L	-3.7wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-16.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2490…aa08backed Under	52c	96.15$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46.15	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.14per pick	53cpaid	+31%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf95…d76ebacked Under	80c	91.25$73 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.25	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+0.2wins	+0.20per pick	80cpaid	+25%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9a98…3f93backed Over	28c	89.29$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bcd…1a94backed Over	57c	87.72$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	79	50.6%40 W · 39 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+4.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa5b…9b61backed Over	61c	81.97$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-2.3wins	-0.14per pick	55cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde56…c2f9backed Over	61c	76.81$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.86	48	56.3%27 W · 21 L	+1.1wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-7.3%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6e8d…3a3dbacked Over	53c	75.57$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	25	56%14 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x219c…fed6backed Over	38c	75$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.25	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.5wins	+0.38per pick	37cpaid	+131.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x33af…288abacked Over	24c	70.5$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.92	142	31%44 W · 98 L	-10.3wins	-0.07per pick	38cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under	65c	60$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.73	107	59.8%64 W · 43 L	+5.1wins	+0.05per pick	55cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e75…0143backed Under	45c	54.34$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.89	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	-1.4wins	-0.06per pick	37cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d42…f124backed Under	42c	50.62$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.34	47	21.3%10 W · 37 L	-5.2wins	-0.11per pick	32cpaid	-52.2%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Over	59c	47.08$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.78	68	51.5%35 W · 33 L	+3.3wins	+0.05per pick	47cpaid	+9.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Over	34c	45.5$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.69	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	38cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over	58c	43.1$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	179	58.7%105 W · 74 L	-6.9wins	-0.04per pick	63cpaid	-8.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Under	68c	38.04$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.32	102	62.7%64 W · 38 L	+6.6wins	+0.07per pick	56cpaid	+9%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0d5f…1171backed Under	69c	34.74$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.77	112	60.7%68 W · 44 L	+5.0wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9c3…443ebacked Under	70c	34.1$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.23	12	58.3%7 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.03per pick	55cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a16…9d73backed Over	61c	33.08$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.18	18	38.9%7 W · 11 L	-3.3wins	-0.18per pick	57cpaid	-36.2%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0xf689…3e3fbacked Under	39c	31.67$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.16	26	46.2%12 W · 14 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	44cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x88c7…febcbacked Under	75c	31.58$24 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.89	5	80%4 W · 1 L	+0.6wins	+0.12per pick	68cpaid	+15.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked Over	57c	31.47$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.92	393	54.2%213 W · 180 L	+17.3wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+13.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9522…7af0backed Under	37c	30$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.9	13	69.2%9 W · 4 L	+1.3wins	+0.10per pick	59cpaid	+26.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x95fc…10f6backed Under	45c	29.62$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16.29	4	75%3 W · 1 L	+1.1wins	+0.27per pick	48cpaid	+54.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x697e…9904backed Under	76c	27.96$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.71	8	50%4 W · 4 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa820…2dcebacked Under	73c	27.4$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.4	28	50%14 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x29a5…a3c4backed Under	47c	27.13$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.34	75	56%42 W · 33 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2068…d19bbacked Under	57c	26.26$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.34	10	60%6 W · 4 L	+1.9wins	+0.19per pick	41cpaid	+35.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0dca…a234backed Over	40c	25$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	26	15.4%4 W · 22 L	-1.3wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x735a…3ef2backed Under	61c	24.59$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.59	74	50%37 W · 37 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1bdf…f939backed Under	79c	24.05$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.05	11	54.5%6 W · 5 L	-1.6wins	-0.14per pick	69cpaid	-22.5%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under	43c	24$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.68	76	46.1%35 W · 41 L	-2.7wins	-0.04per pick	50cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc271…1bfdbacked Over	58c	22.9$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.28	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	-3.7wins	-0.23per pick	55cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	40-0.09 edge/pick
0x18d2…e9c3backed Under	68c	22.79$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.38	26	69.2%18 W · 8 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	67cpaid	+2.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x51eb…6bfabacked Over	56c	22.61$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.66	104	56.7%59 W · 45 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72b8…6253backed Over	58c	20$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	14	42.9%6 W · 8 L	-0.9wins	-0.06per pick	49cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x17b6…af55backed Over	56c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.1	16	62.5%10 W · 6 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	67cpaid	-11.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82a5…674ebacked Under	76c	18.46$14 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.5	50	58%29 W · 21 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	54cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xab92…19e5backed Under	70c	16.89$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5.07	21	81%17 W · 4 L	+3.7wins	+0.18per pick	63cpaid	+28.1%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x976e…8453backed Under	75c	16$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4	23	69.6%16 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	70cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5617…a1f2backed Under	71c	15.33$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4.49	8	75%6 W · 2 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	68cpaid	+7.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5this page
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 0.5Over won
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 1.5Over won
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 3.5Under won
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 4.5Under won
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 5.5Under won
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-1.5)Hellas Verona FC won
Spread: FC Internazionale Milano (-2.5)Hellas Verona FC won
Spread: Hellas Verona FC (-1.5)FC Internazionale Milano won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

FC Internazionale Milano vs. Hellas Verona FC: O/U 2.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event