NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bulls (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5ee72a7d47b4e58575ff35900448a560fec8c75cd073e28ecfdca2f7d709ac3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Bulls, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,337
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $22,961
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,337 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Bulls | 47c | 5,818$2,743 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,743 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Grizzlies | 65c | 4,526$2,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,575.49 | 2,949 | 51.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L | +119.4wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x661f…098abacked Bulls | 58c | 4,138$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,399.96 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies | 46c | 4,009$1,835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,173.94 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ec…41aebacked Grizzlies | 41c | 2,340$959 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,380.53 | 160 | 39.4%63 W · 97 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 2,000$940 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,060 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Grizzlies | 42c | 1,548$649 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$898.09 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Bulls | 42c | 1,525$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.68 | 2,400 | 43.6%1,046 W · 1,354 L | -82.9wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Bulls | 61c | 1,157$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 285 | 54.7%156 W · 129 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Bulls | 32c | 780$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.6 | 208 | 38%79 W · 129 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Bulls | 59c | 758.55$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$447.54 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23c8…f293backed Grizzlies | 41c | 464.03$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$273.78 | 286 | 43%123 W · 163 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Grizzlies | 52c | 400$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21f3…35e3backed Bulls | 59c | 324.58$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.5 | 2,507 | 48.6%1,219 W · 1,288 L | +19.8wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f1…927ebacked Bulls | 37c | 269.84$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.59 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Grizzlies | 43c | 256.74$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.4 | 1,286 | 50.8%653 W · 633 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1629…8510backed Bulls | 61c | 247.69$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 102 | 49%50 W · 52 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb870…5a8abacked Bulls | 48c | 210.75$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.31 | 918 | 46.2%424 W · 494 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Grizzlies | 42c | 208.35$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.84 | 1,084 | 50%542 W · 542 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fcb…78cfbacked Grizzlies | 41c | 200$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 216 | 53.7%116 W · 100 L | +6.8wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Grizzlies | 42c | 198.5$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.79 | 1,633 | 41.2%672 W · 961 L | +26.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bulls | 59c | 185.42$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.4 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7793…33a6backed Grizzlies | 42c | 177.64$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.69 | 293 | 44.4%130 W · 163 L | -7.5wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Grizzlies | 42c | 137.98$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.03 | 509 | 48.5%247 W · 262 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5676…7da7backed Grizzlies | 42c | 129.52$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.12 | 130 | 38.5%50 W · 80 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Bulls | 42c | 103.98$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.88 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4328…11d2backed Bulls | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 387 | 40.3%156 W · 231 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaea…4bbfbacked Bulls | 58c | 100$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 405 | 41%166 W · 239 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4147…902abacked Bulls | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 173 | 42.8%74 W · 99 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8482…3f7abacked Bulls | 31c | 72.26$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.76 | 600 | 49.8%299 W · 301 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Bulls | 42c | 61.84$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.92 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d49…e00abacked Grizzlies | 45c | 56.97$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 1,532 | 42.5%651 W · 881 L | -17.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Bulls | 59c | 55.47$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.61 | 1,399 | 46.4%649 W · 750 L | -13.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77d1…eb7fbacked Bulls | 34c | 52.25$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.55 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | -1.2wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe414…c341backed Grizzlies | 42c | 36.52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.18 | 813 | 49.4%402 W · 411 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Bulls | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Grizzlies | 46c | 35$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.88 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c1d…1f8fbacked Bulls | 57c | 34.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.72 | 492 | 49.8%245 W · 247 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcec1…9c0cbacked Bulls | 47c | 33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 196 | 50.5%99 W · 97 L | +8.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Grizzlies | 43c | 32.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.61 | 1,283 | 23.4%300 W · 983 L | -178.2wins | -0.14per pick | 37cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 35-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x9698…de01backed Bulls | 51c | 29.41$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 267 | 57.3%153 W · 114 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Grizzlies | 44c | 28.26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 877 | 44.7%392 W · 485 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01dc…183ebacked Grizzlies | 62c | 25.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd983…d92dbacked Bulls | 52c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.1 | 298 | 44%131 W · 167 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd77…ef21backed Bulls | 50c | 23.87$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb7…d873backed Bulls | 57c | 23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 122 | 45.9%56 W · 66 L | -6.0wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2cec…5326backed Bulls | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 686 | 45.5%312 W · 374 L | -22.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Bulls | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 870 | 49.3%429 W · 441 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 22 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bulls (-2.5)this page
- Bulls vs. GrizzliesGrizzlies won
- Bulls vs. Grizzlies: 1H O/U 119.5Under won
- Bulls vs. Grizzlies: O/U 243.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Grizzlies: O/U 244.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Grizzlies: O/U 245.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Grizzlies: O/U 246.5Over won
- Bulls vs. Grizzlies: O/U 247.5Over won
- Cedric Coward: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Assists O/U 0.5Yes won
- GG Jackson II: Points O/U 16.5No won
- Isaac Okoro: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Assists O/U 10.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Josh Giddey: Rebounds O/U 8.5Yes won
- Matas Buzelis: Points O/U 20.5Yes won
- Matas Buzelis: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Spread: Bulls (-3.5)Grizzlies won
- Spread: Bulls (-4.5)Grizzlies won
- Taylor Hendricks: Points O/U 10.5No won
- Ty Jerome: Assists O/U 5.5No won
- Ty Jerome: Points O/U 20.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.