NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fc25dc5559e4b63d9f10a80ef6fa0fd0022cc0fcb6afb42c31d704bbd578300
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $62,323
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,816
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,323 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd43c…04e8backed Over | 48c | 52,139$25,105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25,105.49 | 115 | 35.7%41 W · 74 L | -12.9wins | -0.11per pick | 47cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Under | 52c | 29,155$15,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,994.4 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 52c | 8,000$4,160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,840 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 54c | 5,322$2,849 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,472.88 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 3,771$1,933 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,838.58 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d3a…7b63backed Under | 54c | 2,607$1,409 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,198.15 | 762 | 49.5%377 W · 385 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fe7…2f3cbacked Under | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,200 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…5b15backed Under | 53c | 1,331$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.57 | 45 | 44.4%20 W · 25 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 50c | 1,083$540 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$542.17 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 52c | 700$364 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$336 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Under | 51c | 499.99$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.99 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed Over | 49c | 469$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.81 | 1,151 | 53.7%618 W · 533 L | -41.7wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4919…0c56backed Over | 49c | 392.59$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.37 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Over | 42c | 345.64$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.62 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Under | 58c | 344$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.98 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x817b…3c25backed Over | 49c | 300$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147 | 1,048 | 41.1%431 W · 617 L | +23.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 49c | 219.02$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.48 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2984…0407backed Under | 48c | 218.75$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.75 | 33 | 33.3%11 W · 22 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…715cbacked Over | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 83 | 47%39 W · 44 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Over | 46c | 161$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.55 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 43c | 149.99$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.5 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb67a…fd1abacked Over | 51c | 134.33$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.51 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f62…ac75backed Over | 49c | 122.45$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 61 | 42.6%26 W · 35 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43ab…b6ffbacked Under | 54c | 116$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.36 | 85 | 55.3%47 W · 38 L | -2.8wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…9305backed Under | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc6…0f52backed Over | 49c | 81.63$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 63 | 50.8%32 W · 31 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 61cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 118 | 44.1%52 W · 66 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 51c | 50.02$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Over | 47c | 49.99$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b82…b217backed Under | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +2.2wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff6a…d0dcbacked Over | 50c | 28.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9249…b9aebacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5this page
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Bucks won
- Warriors vs. BucksBucks won
- Warriors vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Warriors vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.