NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8443a71c8e73261d7bf8bdfa2bffa0232eed08814fe42125ef0e4975f0456faf
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Warriors, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,107
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,737
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,107 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9158…fa7bbacked Bucks | 51c | 9,124$4,653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,470.58 | 62 | 53.2%33 W · 29 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…8f58backed Warriors | 49c | 7,160$3,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,500.7 | 62 | 41.9%26 W · 36 L | -4.3wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Bucks | 49c | 2,606$1,283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,323.8 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Warriors | 50c | 2,105$1,053 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,052.5 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Warriors | 49c | 2,088$1,017 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,017.34 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Warriors | 49c | 2,000$980 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$980 | 653 | 39.5%258 W · 395 L | -24.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Bucks | 51c | 1,516$773 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.01 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Warriors | 49c | 1,087$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.08 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bucks | 32c | 724.38$235 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.59 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb083…b3f0backed Warriors | 65c | 600$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 202 | 48%97 W · 105 L | -8.1wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -14%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb22…808abacked Bucks | 53c | 250$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.5 | 956 | 41.7%399 W · 557 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5744…9d5dbacked Bucks | 53c | 199.34$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.69 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe922…39b3backed Bucks | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.68 | 235 | 53.6%126 W · 109 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x39a2…a471backed Bucks | 53c | 152.21$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.21 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Warriors | 33c | 151$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.83 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9161…622ebacked Warriors | 49c | 102.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 50 | 24%12 W · 38 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd420…df90backed Bucks | 51c | 98$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.02 | 514 | 51.9%267 W · 247 L | +5.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf930…e346backed Warriors | 67c | 97.94$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 124 | 51.6%64 W · 60 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Bucks | 30c | 95.96$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.17 | 1,752 | 40.6%712 W · 1,040 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…e02abacked Bucks | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Bucks | 51c | 73$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.51 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Warriors | 46c | 56.82$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.14 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc5b…f102backed Bucks | 53c | 53$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.91 | 905 | 60.8%550 W · 355 L | -2.1wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62d6…4455backed Bucks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc95c…cef3backed Bucks | 52c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe115…4641backed Bucks | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.04 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea81…eeaebacked Bucks | 51c | 36.32$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f5…1caabacked Bucks | 51c | 34.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.84 | 801 | 48.3%387 W · 414 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b31…a766backed Bucks | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.85 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5387…b792backed Bucks | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0f…74adbacked Bucks | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 52cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2278…8270backed Bucks | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf231…6b8dbacked Bucks | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -41%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4891…6c5bbacked Bucks | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3d2…6ea7backed Bucks | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4088…4ca7backed Bucks | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5096…6634backed Bucks | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79eb…618cbacked Bucks | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb305…3cd3backed Bucks | 54c | 27.78$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.78 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8e…529fbacked Bucks | 51c | 25.04$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6385…56a4backed Bucks | 53c | 24.75$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.63 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b14…6988backed Bucks | 53c | 23.83$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.2 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +31%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa4…7838backed Bucks | 53c | 22.77$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.22per pick | 50cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57f9…9b63backed Warriors | 50c | 22.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.9wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5bf6…5b0bbacked Bucks | 54c | 22.22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.22 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x473d…942abacked Bucks | 53c | 22$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.34 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.8wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +51%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 52c | 21$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3dc…8784backed Bucks | 53c | 20.49$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.31per pick | 49cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7353…0d9ebacked Bucks | 53c | 20.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1307…608cbacked Bucks | 53c | 20.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1c85…baf1backed Bucks | 53c | 20.04$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f4…84a1backed Bucks | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.25per pick | 58cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x813a…a669backed Bucks | 53c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +2.4wins | +0.20per pick | 39cpaid | +60%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd72b…dd61backed Bucks | 54c | 19.22$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)this page
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Bucks won
- Warriors vs. BucksBucks won
- Warriors vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Warriors vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.