NBA · resolved market
Warriors vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc20f17f310d746bfee7a9ec3e4dc40d1174918d60f2158aeccbcb0796c727da6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,781
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $43,833
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,781 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 12,055$6,024 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,023.63 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 48c | 10,874$5,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,221.64 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb784…61d0backed Under | 50c | 7,479$3,740 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,739.5 | 293 | 51.5%151 W · 142 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Under | 50c | 7,440$3,720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,720 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7b98…ed81backed Under | 47c | 3,810$1,791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,019.3 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01b4…372ebacked Over | 1c | 2,559$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.59 | 298 | 10.4%31 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.08per pick | 3cpaid | +230.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Under | 49c | 2,329$1,140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,189.38 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 48c | 1,942$934 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.96 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Over | 48c | 1,500$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Under | 52c | 1,396$728 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$667.6 | 361 | 48.5%175 W · 186 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…a510backed Under | 50c | 1,100$550 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$550 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +2.8wins | +0.12per pick | 47cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd584…25dfbacked Over | 53c | 817$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 46c | 795.32$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$427.08 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd883…163fbacked Over | 53c | 785$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Under | 51c | 751.6$387 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$364.62 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Over | 35c | 736.54$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.24 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3b7…485cbacked Under | 47c | 699$329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$370.47 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5994…f42cbacked Over | 53c | 698$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc710…17a6backed Over | 53c | 697$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x20e1…4504backed Under | 47c | 696$327 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.88 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb09…e2f4backed Over | 53c | 652$346 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$345.56 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacc7…0769backed Over | 53c | 574$304 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.22 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xccd0…6b24backed Over | 53c | 430$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5105…446dbacked Over | 54c | 425$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.31per pick | 51cpaid | -59.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9925…e33ebacked Over | 52c | 400$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 101 | 56.4%57 W · 44 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe962…663abacked Over | 51c | 400$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202 | 843 | 42.9%362 W · 481 L | -39.1wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Under | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…5673backed Under | 51c | 399.98$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.99 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…a59bbacked Under | 47c | 200$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107 | 418 | 48.3%202 W · 216 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2791…2791backed Under | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.1wins | +0.12per pick | 48cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 45c | 150$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb711…4b2ebacked Over | 53c | 127$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb5dd…b094backed Over | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 339 | 50.1%170 W · 169 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cf…9527backed Under | 55c | 72.35$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.56 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 57cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dff…bc36backed Under | 46c | 70$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.6 | 72 | 43.1%31 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e79…ff8bbacked Under | 50c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 174 | 56.9%99 W · 75 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6465…8a34backed Over | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.8wins | -0.23per pick | 56cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74d3…0332backed Under | 56c | 28.49$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.54 | 346 | 45.4%157 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 45c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Warriors vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5this page
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Bucks won
- Warriors vs. BucksBucks won
- Warriors vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Warriors vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.