NBA · resolved market
Spread: Warriors (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8283946fe4523e294983f07cadf3da26b458512347f83e6d1c58746e388e4bc6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Bucksof Warriors, Bucks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,065
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,957
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,065 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Warriors | 65c | 6,888$4,462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,462.32 | 857 | 42.6%365 W · 492 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Bucks | 45c | 2,771$1,253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,518.3 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bucks | 42c | 2,411$1,005 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,406.15 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41b7…f6babacked Warriors | 55c | 2,222$1,222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,221.98 | 801 | 46.4%372 W · 429 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 32c | 1,969$624 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,344.92 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc996…bb65backed Bucks | 46c | 1,860$856 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,004.46 | 471 | 44.2%208 W · 263 L | -10.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9af…6371backed Warriors | 54c | 1,852$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | -5.7wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde91…f20abacked Bucks | 45c | 1,500$675 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825 | 157 | 45.2%71 W · 86 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc10…3f05backed Warriors | 51c | 1,472$751 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$750.71 | 96 | 50%48 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9bff…6f0cbacked Warriors | 52c | 1,062$552 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$552.43 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -3.5wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Bucks | 42c | 1,024$435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.81 | 474 | 48.7%231 W · 243 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…821cbacked Bucks | 49c | 1,020$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520.41 | 66 | 42.4%28 W · 38 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Warriors | 52c | 1,010$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Warriors | 56c | 985$555 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$554.53 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b7c…5f83backed Bucks | 35c | 753$267 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.47 | 3,342 | 43.4%1,450 W · 1,892 L | +81.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6fb2…5a60backed Bucks | 48c | 570$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.4 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91df…e5d7backed Warriors | 52c | 570$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.4 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +1.7wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd461…1d6cbacked Bucks | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 152 | 28.3%43 W · 109 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…0a2bbacked Warriors | 52c | 384.62$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 43 | 23.3%10 W · 33 L | -3.7wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eda…4bb7backed Warriors | 53c | 377.36$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 389 | 42.9%167 W · 222 L | -16.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83f7…fb38backed Warriors | 57c | 288.56$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.07 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc7e…06a2backed Bucks | 48c | 287.33$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.41 | 34 | 44.1%15 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ee…b3aabacked Bucks | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 362 | 48.9%177 W · 185 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e52…9434backed Bucks | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 71 | 50.7%36 W · 35 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Bucks | 49c | 204.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.08 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5744…9d5dbacked Bucks | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89c9…9534backed Warriors | 53c | 189.99$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 661 | 53.3%352 W · 309 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc31…9e28backed Bucks | 49c | 163.27$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.27 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 51cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Bucks | 44c | 150$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 354 | 47.7%169 W · 185 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd99…f375backed Bucks | 51c | 117$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.33 | 381 | 51.2%195 W · 186 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca21…b07cbacked Warriors | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 224 | 58.9%132 W · 92 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8328…0a5cbacked Warriors | 53c | 86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 368 | 42.4%156 W · 212 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Bucks | 52c | 72$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.4 | 597 | 43.6%260 W · 337 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Bucks | 47c | 71.23$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.59 | 710 | 52.1%370 W · 340 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d45…9054backed Warriors | 55c | 61.23$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 300 | 53.3%160 W · 140 L | +9.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3cf…3183backed Bucks | 50c | 47.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.74 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0f…7037backed Bucks | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfde…71d3backed Bucks | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ce3…e89ebacked Warriors | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -4.1wins | -0.23per pick | 51cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x801e…c4a1backed Bucks | 49c | 36.73$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.73 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1d…2bd7backed Bucks | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cda…9c9cbacked Bucks | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c14…4573backed Bucks | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd15d…c293backed Bucks | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +26%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9705…1468backed Bucks | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44c4…b0dcbacked Bucks | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabd1…844cbacked Bucks | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd817…b8e7backed Bucks | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f8…2d23backed Bucks | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa62b…faccbacked Bucks | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Warriors | 52c | 28.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 53 | 34%18 W · 35 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84e3…d2edbacked Bucks | 50c | 28.64$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.32 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +80.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd159…8bafbacked Bucks | 49c | 27.86$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.21 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63d3…362bbacked Bucks | 49c | 25.94$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.23 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e7…fb4fbacked Bucks | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…62b6backed Bucks | 49c | 24$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.24 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6667…962cbacked Bucks | 49c | 23.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.23 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c0…1222backed Bucks | 49c | 23.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab24…9804backed Bucks | 50c | 21.74$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.87 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf46a…3598backed Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07b…17cebacked Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.14per pick | 43cpaid | +46%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaf81…711ebacked Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 47cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Warriors (-2.5)this page
- Spread: Warriors (-1.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Warriors (-3.5)Bucks won
- Spread: Warriors (-8.5)Bucks won
- Warriors vs. BucksBucks won
- Warriors vs. Bucks: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Warriors vs. Bucks: 1H O/U 113.5Over won
- Warriors vs. Bucks: O/U 230.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Bucks: O/U 231.5Under won
- Warriors vs. Bucks: O/U 232.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.