Ligue 1 · resolved market
Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x609b55444df62d1d803d7c4836a79c0e8b469c0f8a0ba303cb5e4423f3f556bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Ligue 1every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,936
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,674
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,936 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Ligue 1 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xde04…fa37backed No | 80c | 1,896$1,510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.91 | 246 | 42.3%104 W · 142 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Yes | 26c | 1,477$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.13 | 331 | 45%149 W · 182 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 74c | 990.54$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.09 | 1,916 | 45.5%872 W · 1,044 L | +13.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0c…5292backed Yes | 24c | 826.79$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba1…1703backed Yes | 4c | 750$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae9…facabacked Yes | 26c | 571.35$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.55 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed No | 79c | 562.91$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.61 | 260 | 46.2%120 W · 140 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Yes | 23c | 491.6$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.63 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | -11.1wins | -0.09per pick | 48cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54ea…f74abacked No | 75c | 413.33$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.33 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +67.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed No | 74c | 399.96$296 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.99 | 304 | 48%146 W · 158 L | -10.7wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4379…2e16backed No | 74c | 388.69$288 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.06 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes | 26c | 384.62$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 73 | 43.8%32 W · 41 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +34.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7a49…d9f5backed No | 74c | 370.71$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.55 | 180 | 46.7%84 W · 96 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7edb…7993backed No | 77c | 354.14$274 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.27 | 109 | 38.5%42 W · 67 L | -11.4wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e3…3fe8backed Yes | 26c | 350$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 77c | 315.35$242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.24 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcef7…e7d7backed Yes | 28c | 299.14$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.19 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked No | 78c | 288.05$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.15 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | -5.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x38c4…7c65backed No | 75c | 288$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 52 | 61.5%32 W · 20 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1105…09d0backed No | 75c | 277.55$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.39 | 24 | 66.7%16 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Yes | 21c | 275.78$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.22 | 44 | 20.5%9 W · 35 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 25c | 261$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.25 | 284 | 48.2%137 W · 147 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd4e1…62a2backed No | 77c | 252.92$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.4 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe503…6d7bbacked No | 80c | 250.59$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.59 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +64.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked No | 74c | 239.99$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.4 | 263 | 54%142 W · 121 L | +7.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 77c | 234.26$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.95 | 486 | 49%238 W · 248 L | +14.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1df2…89a0backed No | 77c | 215.72$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 74c | 201.18$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.31 | 260 | 41.9%109 W · 151 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6e8d…a2acbacked Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2363…b0e8backed Yes | 26c | 192.31$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -3.0wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 21c | 165.75$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.33 | 1,415 | 40.8%577 W · 838 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf641…7b6fbacked Yes | 25c | 143.9$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.28 | 150 | 71.3%107 W · 43 L | +10.5wins | +0.07per pick | 64cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Yes | 22c | 139.08$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 42cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed No | 74c | 130$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.8 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c7f…4c60backed Yes | 26c | 123.58$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.73 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +24.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7f…34ecbacked Yes | 26c | 115.38$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 26c | 115$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.12 | 27 | 44.4%12 W · 15 L | -2.1wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0dd5…9858backed Yes | 22c | 113.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked No | 76c | 112.02$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.26 | 240 | 52.9%127 W · 113 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa509…ae46backed No | 74c | 108$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 181 | 55.2%100 W · 81 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Yes | 28c | 107.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7291…78e2backed No | 75c | 102$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc96…1245backed Yes | 24c | 99.98$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ece…0163backed Yes | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 178 | 17.4%31 W · 147 L | -16.2wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd83c…6b83backed Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf692…dd55backed Yes | 22c | 92.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8e3…05e1backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked No | 71c | 87.14$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed No | 79c | 84$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 70 | 60%42 W · 28 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed No | 77c | 76.26$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 228 | 54.4%124 W · 104 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yes | 20c | 70.35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -4.7wins | -0.23per pick | 28cpaid | -84.7%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe5fe…1daabacked Yes | 22c | 68.7$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.38 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7fea…8f74backed Yes | 22c | 67.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 58 | 29.3%17 W · 41 L | -8.8wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0c6d…8371backed Yes | 26c | 65.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 53cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed No | 74c | 61.46$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.22 | 525 | 50.1%263 W · 262 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked No | 78c | 60$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.17 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41b1…b470backed Yes | 26c | 57.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -3.2wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -75.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0f34…7684backed Yes | 26c | 56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.56 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.9wins | -0.13per pick | 35cpaid | -54.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb07e…0df5backed Yes | 22c | 54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.88 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.7wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf39a…fe47backed No | 73c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.49 | 159 | 51.6%82 W · 77 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x274e…1d72backed Yes | 25c | 50$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 164 | 48.8%80 W · 84 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 49 | 55.1%27 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed No | 74c | 38.46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -4.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x668d…e471backed Yes | 33c | 38$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 60cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d49…7cc0backed No | 75c | 35$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d21…92e5backed No | 75c | 30.79$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.76 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8453…76bfbacked No | 64c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.27per pick | 59cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8e3b…380cbacked No | 74c | 29.18$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.59 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fcb…207cbacked No | 70c | 28.43$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed No | 71c | 28.12$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.12 | 40 | 30%12 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6b…8ffabacked No | 72c | 27.54$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.72 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed No | 74c | 26.02$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.76 | 127 | 38.6%49 W · 78 L | -7.8wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1171…16cfbacked No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7d…10fcbacked No | 76c | 19.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.61 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5004…c07bbacked No | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 20 | 80%16 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 73c | 18.52$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 380 | 56.6%215 W · 165 L | +11.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35d1…1f70backed No | 80c | 17.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 60 | 65%39 W · 21 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc75b…3ea7backed No | 77c | 14.51$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.4 | 78 | 61.5%48 W · 30 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6628…b24abacked No | 71c | 14.06$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.06 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +29%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked No | 79c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 59 | 55.9%33 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Ligue 1 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Olympique Lyonnais vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901 end in a draw?this page
- Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03?Yes won
- Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-03?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.