TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit (BO3) - PGL Wallachia Group Stage

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Falcons, Team Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$482,386

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $482,386 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 372 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfbf3…b218backed Team Spirit48c57,727$27,709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,017.816147.2%76 W · 85 L+4.4wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9b5…09eebacked Team Falcons52c40,292$20,952 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,951.9955157%314 W · 237 L+17.4wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Spirit51c22,237$11,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,937.3854556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons13c20,211$2,552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,551.972,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc40…89cfbacked Team Falcons49c15,319$7,506 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,506.3436041.4%149 W · 211 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Team Falcons51c14,685$7,490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,489.5228748.8%140 W · 147 L-4.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc2c1…9fe2backed Team Spirit47c12,796$6,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,772.12633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Team Falcons49c11,439$5,572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,572.3818452.2%96 W · 88 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Falcons52c11,111$5,778 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,777.7232854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3833…33d1backed Team Spirit49c10,204$4,998 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,206.0842650%213 W · 213 L+4.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Team Spirit77c10,082$7,766 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,315.8718661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb517…434bbacked Team Falcons52c6,662$3,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,482.1222842.1%96 W · 132 L-25.3wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-23.3%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed Team Falcons52c5,179$2,693 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,693.29922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick43cpaid-49.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe3aa…1485backed Team Falcons51c5,146$2,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,639.086852.9%36 W · 32 L+1.2wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Team Spirit50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,50011854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Team Falcons54c5,000$2,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,7008242.7%35 W · 47 L-8.2wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2698…0958backed Team Spirit48c4,982$2,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,590.4813441.8%56 W · 78 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-17.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x506b…3f70backed Team Falcons43c4,978$2,137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,137.486145.9%28 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Spirit48c4,584$2,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,383.6120159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x67b6…00bcbacked Team Falcons54c4,000$2,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,1609839.8%39 W · 59 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x94a5…9838backed Team Spirit48c3,986$1,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,072.716850%34 W · 34 L-4.3wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Team Falcons53c3,900$2,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,066.9914648.6%71 W · 75 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Spirit46c3,832$1,762 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,070.2496557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3c29…21aabacked Team Falcons56c3,569$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0008060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x00ce…3f01backed Team Falcons49c3,392$1,676 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,676.3815345.8%70 W · 83 L-7.2wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x40f8…327dbacked Team Spirit48c3,000$1,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.9911839.8%47 W · 71 L-7.5wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x168b…0acfbacked Team Falcons36c2,758$990 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$990.0218362.8%115 W · 68 L+5.4wins+0.03per pick60cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Team Falcons76c2,753$2,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,080.171342.5%303 W · 410 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x63ad…790cbacked Team Falcons25c2,713$671 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$670.82450%12 W · 12 L+2.0wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+28.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2765…7ee4backed Team Falcons51c2,570$1,309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.8655751.7%288 W · 269 L+16.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3f40…e1f2backed Team Falcons52c2,549$1,313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,3134932.7%16 W · 33 L-7.0wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-35.1%equal weight39-0.09 edge/pick
0x8120…54c9backed Team Spirit48c2,534$1,215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,318.657941.8%33 W · 46 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3993…cdedbacked Team Spirit48c2,206$1,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,147.188258.5%48 W · 34 L+5.7wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+15.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed Team Falcons5c2,197$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.2116821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79c6…4cf3backed Team Spirit48c2,100$1,008 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,0923740.5%15 W · 22 L-4.9wins-0.13per pick54cpaid-22.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x8e8c…65ddbacked Team Falcons52c2,052$1,070 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,069.7734544.3%153 W · 192 L-15.8wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-11.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd4f9…0a00backed Team Falcons59c2,045$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2009158.2%53 W · 38 L+2.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8dd1…5a9bbacked Team Spirit49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.8220367%136 W · 67 L+14.8wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+11.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9553…cfc7backed Team Falcons56c2,026$1,133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.895158.8%30 W · 21 L-0.2wins0.00per pick59cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x733d…1ae7backed Team Falcons53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,06030%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x50ac…a924backed Team Spirit48c1,913$918 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$995.319555.8%53 W · 42 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+22.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked Team Falcons50c1,864$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$923.626043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Falcons25c1,830$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.9166662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x3ebb…00febacked Team Falcons42c1,700$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7172572%18 W · 7 L+5.6wins+0.22per pick50cpaid+38.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x8232…d12fbacked Team Falcons55c1,545$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.2428062.9%176 W · 104 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb64…bfdcbacked Team Falcons52c1,529$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80023653%125 W · 111 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb8cb…8f46backed Team Falcons52c1,500$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.954143.9%18 W · 23 L-2.0wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Team Falcons54c1,500$810 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809.991435.7%5 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-25.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a8c…fd3dbacked Team Falcons33c1,388$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.0248539.2%190 W · 295 L-8.4wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked Team Falcons52c1,333$692 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$692.514657.5%84 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0659…d74dbacked Team Falcons51c1,332$679 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$679.3285851.3%440 W · 418 L+30.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3d40…2230backed Team Spirit46c1,264$583 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.381735.3%6 W · 11 L-2.0wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-29.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons48c1,261$606 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.180742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Falcons47c1,208$562 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$562.371,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ae1…1e7ebacked Team Falcons42c1,205$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50432951.7%170 W · 159 L-0.9wins0.00per pick52cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa97f…a818backed Team Falcons51c1,200$607 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$606.9858744%258 W · 329 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8d33…7287backed Team Spirit50c1,189$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$588.714746.8%22 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked Team Falcons40c1,148$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4629543.2%41 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Team Spirit46c1,143$527 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$615.938653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe375…dadfbacked Team Falcons56c1,075$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60012948.1%62 W · 67 L-9.3wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-13.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Team Spirit62c1,058$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$401.921,12036.1%404 W · 716 L-39.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Spirit49c1,058$517 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.653652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x772c…3539backed Team Spirit47c1,022$485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.475543.6%24 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed Team Spirit50c1,010$505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50523746.8%111 W · 126 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3f12…3e35backed Team Spirit48c1,000$475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.039946.5%46 W · 53 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-12.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…56efbacked Team Falcons50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50056542.8%242 W · 323 L+5.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Team Falcons51c999.99$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5102646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x096a…0074backed Team Falcons50c961.54$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.773928.2%11 W · 28 L-7.0wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-45.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5eab…d552backed Team Falcons26c898.14$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.966725.4%17 W · 50 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick28cpaid+4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x913c…39b3backed Team Falcons51c886.52$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.6871454.5%389 W · 325 L+55.6wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Spirit52c865.51$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.6579959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Team Spirit12c862.93$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.6237811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf795…5e34backed Team Falcons10c850$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.53727%10 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc5…d1a4backed Team Falcons7c830.39$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.389045.6%41 W · 49 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+3.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x682c…ef07backed Team Spirit49c816.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.339946.5%46 W · 53 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Team Falcons14c805.47$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.1289938%342 W · 557 L-45.9wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-30%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc42f…9390backed Team Spirit62c801.34$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.349254.3%50 W · 42 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca5e…4af1backed Team Spirit48c779$374 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.081040%4 W · 6 L-2.0wins-0.20per pick60cpaid-32.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x438e…c499backed Team Falcons48c760.55$362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$362.36120%0 W · 12 L-5.6wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Team Falcons8c749.99$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.3937832.5%123 W · 255 L-12.7wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-35.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xce53…834bbacked Team Falcons52c739.31$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$384.443461.8%21 W · 13 L+3.7wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+19.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Team Falcons41c726.9$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.5633041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Falcons42c717.61$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.931,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc209…7924backed Team Falcons42c717.07$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.6950757.4%291 W · 216 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Team Spirit49c716.43$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.3361548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Team Falcons21c710$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.823050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x03df…1299backed Team Falcons12c709.05$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.924628.3%13 W · 33 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-33.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Team Spirit46c700$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$381.4731245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6503…0c3dbacked Team Spirit65c681.82$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$239.728461.9%52 W · 32 L+5.3wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+7.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Team Spirit45c669.51$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$369.518957.3%51 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Team Spirit47c647.47$305 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$342.9660542.6%258 W · 347 L-14.6wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-7.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Team Spirit52c599.99$312 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$288.399053.3%48 W · 42 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ed…0c39backed Team Spirit74c579.1$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd4e3…d5f4backed Team Falcons52c576.92$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30016641.6%69 W · 97 L-7.3wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-12%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5a1…0544backed Team Falcons52c566.06$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.335244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Falcons22c560.12$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.846649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Team Falcons9c555.56$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5033645.5%153 W · 183 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed Team Spirit78c555$434 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.0519664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed Team Spirit56c550.68$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.047950.6%40 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3dc2…48a9backed Team Falcons47c530.96$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.761560%9 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.