TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Team Spiritof Team Falcons, Team Spirit
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$165,862

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $165,862 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 184 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Dota2
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x66fb…9f72backed Team Spirit45c15,290$6,900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,390.3754556.5%308 W · 237 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Team Falcons49c8,803$4,322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,321.7932854.9%180 W · 148 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x87da…53d1backed Team Spirit44c7,160$3,180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,979.3796557.4%554 W · 411 L+49.5wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ab4…96a5backed Team Falcons69c7,058$4,860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,860.1411854.2%64 W · 54 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6998…ae95backed Team Falcons2c6,713$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.0816821.4%36 W · 132 L+0.4wins0.00per pick21cpaid-20.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa0f9…cf34backed Team Falcons70c6,162$4,298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,298.3618661.8%115 W · 71 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick66cpaid-10.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e38…de0fbacked Team Falcons47c6,142$2,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,880.436043.3%26 W · 34 L-2.5wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-14.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x506b…3f70backed Team Falcons62c5,784$3,602 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,601.936145.9%28 W · 33 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2775…3652backed Team Falcons50c4,348$2,167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,166.8933041.8%138 W · 192 L-9.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-16%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc81…5df2backed Team Spirit51c4,000$2,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,979.839557.9%55 W · 40 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdb63…a71dbacked Team Spirit55c4,000$2,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,801.6920159.7%120 W · 81 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0738…6392backed Team Falcons72c2,926$2,108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,107.921264.2%136 W · 76 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8a38…fee0backed Team Falcons49c2,100$1,029 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,028.9960349.9%301 W · 302 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x57ba…d369backed Team Falcons43c2,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$859.9914648.6%71 W · 75 L-8.7wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x07fa…f5cdbacked Team Spirit38c1,774$673 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,100.5346240.7%188 W · 274 L+15.4wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x3c29…21aabacked Team Spirit53c1,701$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$802.858060%48 W · 32 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa27c…ab67backed Team Falcons53c1,500$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$799.9979959.4%475 W · 324 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x9ae8…c2a8backed Team Spirit71c1,455$1,032 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$422.9313045.4%59 W · 71 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc67…5286backed Team Falcons55c1,428$779 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$778.7966662.2%414 W · 252 L+60.2wins+0.09per pick53cpaid+10.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x274f…971abacked Team Spirit44c1,353$592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.4114657.5%84 W · 62 L+0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x08c2…c023backed Team Falcons26c1,353$356 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$355.7948954.6%267 W · 222 L+23.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+3.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x60d0…e05fbacked Team Falcons43c1,150$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.541242.2%174 W · 238 L-0.4wins0.00per pick42cpaid-2.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9942…5c84backed Team Spirit20c1,018$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$818.2526453%140 W · 124 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-2.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5623…6930backed Team Falcons29c1,000$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2902646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.6wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1a12…d212backed Team Spirit50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5008957.3%51 W · 38 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1f2d…2b35backed Team Spirit50c1,000$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50053652.6%282 W · 254 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x31b5…6128backed Team Spirit72c956.13$693 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26318075%135 W · 45 L+18.8wins+0.10per pick65cpaid+16.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5b5f…3397backed Team Spirit51c927.17$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.1723746.8%111 W · 126 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x772c…3539backed Team Spirit50c899.99$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4505543.6%24 W · 31 L0.0wins0.00per pick44cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7181…1b0abacked Team Falcons62c807.83$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014965.8%98 W · 51 L+8.8wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+12.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a06…31d8backed Team Spirit50c789.97$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$393.9541655.3%230 W · 186 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd43…88d7backed Team Spirit52c768.43$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.0310334%35 W · 68 L-5.0wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-14.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x79df…31d6backed Team Spirit23c677.65$159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.9711239.3%44 W · 68 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Team Falcons34c667.79$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.821,90147.6%905 W · 996 L+4.6wins0.00per pick47cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Team Falcons66c664.5$437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$436.7874549.3%367 W · 378 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdc0…4b85backed Team Falcons49c596.85$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$294.871,57743.9%692 W · 885 L-10.4wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc209…7924backed Team Falcons70c589.99$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$413.9750757.4%291 W · 216 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d03…9a41backed Team Spirit34c582.02$197 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$384.8623050.9%117 W · 113 L-0.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6450…9547backed Team Spirit50c544$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27210141.6%42 W · 59 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Team Falcons42c543.24$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.822,82843.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L-39.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f4f…46c2backed Team Falcons51c526$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.3236054.4%196 W · 164 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x363a…4a8dbacked Team Falcons52c515.59$266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$266.428258.5%48 W · 34 L-3.8wins-0.05per pick63cpaid-11%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb4f9…32b1backed Team Spirit34c511.41$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.8631245.8%143 W · 169 L+10.2wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xba8d…009dbacked Team Spirit51c489.99$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.15648.2%27 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick41cpaid+3.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xacf6…41fcbacked Team Spirit52c489.25$256 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.0760646.9%284 W · 322 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Team Spirit54c460.36$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.361,13742.3%481 W · 656 L-27.5wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xca1f…ed28backed Team Falcons55c455$252 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$252.4460552.6%318 W · 287 L+15.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf0a…320abacked Team Falcons26c440.94$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.8692056.4%519 W · 401 L+78.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+3.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x540d…c8f9backed Team Spirit57c438.6$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.638855.2%214 W · 174 L+29.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0438…9d98backed Team Falcons79c414.72$326 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$325.9820156.7%114 W · 87 L+0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa3fb…19c0backed Team Spirit45c400.85$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.566735.8%24 W · 43 L-0.2wins0.00per pick36cpaid-8.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6df…1cf4backed Team Spirit51c400$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1961346.2%6 W · 7 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+17.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb22d…3a13backed Team Falcons50c400$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20024045.4%109 W · 131 L-4.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x491d…f42bbacked Team Spirit48c397.9$191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$206.9139660.1%238 W · 158 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x581f…9d8ebacked Team Falcons49c387.95$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.19543.2%41 W · 54 L-6.0wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-17.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x40a2…19c9backed Team Falcons57c387.73$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.017950.6%40 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick51cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d33…7287backed Team Falcons52c384.62$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004746.8%22 W · 25 L-2.0wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x249f…fed3backed Team Falcons51c382.99$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.3262650.5%316 W · 310 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc03e…da65backed Team Spirit53c380.6$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.66650%33 W · 33 L-5.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-15.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc327…c72abacked Team Spirit36c358.09$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$227.8911753%62 W · 55 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f9c…101cbacked Team Falcons77c357.74$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.968458.3%49 W · 35 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-13%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xad72…4f5ebacked Team Falcons58c351.08$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.6336851.6%190 W · 178 L+25.7wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+16.3%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x86e0…c394backed Team Falcons48c350$169 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16980742.6%344 W · 463 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a9…3d6fbacked Team Spirit49c340.8$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.219145.1%41 W · 50 L-2.7wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x860e…a06dbacked Team Falcons53c331.06$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.4616440.2%66 W · 98 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a65…ffcdbacked Team Spirit41c330$137 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.59051.1%46 W · 44 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed Team Spirit40c328.17$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.111,27245%572 W · 700 L-40.5wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-17.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x713c…b373backed Team Falcons63c321.09$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.21450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Team Falcons62c314.74$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.992,01244.2%889 W · 1,123 L+36.6wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6a4…4249backed Team Spirit56c313.86$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.0819664.8%127 W · 69 L+0.3wins0.00per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0cd9…2a08backed Team Falcons39c312.64$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.5552243.9%229 W · 293 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xae4c…dcb9backed Team Falcons48c311.88$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.728549.1%140 W · 145 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc2…48a9backed Team Falcons42c310$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.11560%9 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed70…4f63backed Team Falcons57c300.29$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1704045%18 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76d…5a75backed Team Falcons50c300$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1501,24844.4%554 W · 694 L+17.0wins+0.01per pick43cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x368d…d853backed Team Spirit18c300$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24661548.8%300 W · 315 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9a…a06bbacked Team Falcons15c299.99$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4537811.1%42 W · 336 L+0.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-21.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x92f5…13e5backed Team Falcons50c250$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12513138.9%51 W · 80 L-6.4wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x755d…37e7backed Team Spirit77c242.87$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.876566.2%43 W · 22 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2416…6e91backed Team Falcons49c239.94$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.5738653.9%208 W · 178 L+10.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb74c…b149backed Team Falcons42c238.9$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.85450%0 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xf2ae…0864backed Team Spirit79c206.03$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.526661.7%164 W · 102 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe186…c040backed Team Spirit40c202.35$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.351315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.8wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-57.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc690…ec5bbacked Team Falcons50c200.32$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1004438.6%17 W · 27 L-4.5wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-26%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x8c76…477abacked Team Falcons48c200$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969651%49 W · 47 L+3.6wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbe5a…13f5backed Team Falcons50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10045046.7%210 W · 240 L-11.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbffe…5664backed Team Falcons50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002842.9%12 W · 16 L-3.6wins-0.13per pick56cpaid-21.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x3eac…67cbbacked Team Falcons42c199.99$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.993959%23 W · 16 L+6.5wins+0.17per pick42cpaid+35.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfadf…dda0backed Team Spirit48c199.65$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.8229245.9%134 W · 158 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Team Falcons42c198.85$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.5978516.6%130 W · 655 L-135.4wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-66.7%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0xfbc2…514cbacked Team Spirit58c190.73$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.7333845.6%154 W · 184 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0ac5…f963backed Team Falcons36c187.34$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8712252.5%64 W · 58 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+0.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5799…db25backed Team Spirit71c184.75$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.8246049.8%229 W · 231 L+2.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdc5a…bf71backed Team Spirit43c181.31$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.5546649.8%232 W · 234 L+8.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-12.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2761…4d95backed Team Falcons50c180.76$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.2844645.7%204 W · 242 L+0.2wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb97e…262bbacked Team Falcons39c179.65$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7052649.2%259 W · 267 L+21.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c1e…9514backed Team Spirit53c151.49$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4986451.7%447 W · 417 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a28…41edbacked Team Spirit60c150$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6021350.7%108 W · 105 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+0.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcdfb…980cbacked Team Falcons52c148.63$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.2917546.9%82 W · 93 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58ea…538dbacked Team Falcons68c147.21$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007741.6%32 W · 45 L-8.8wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-27.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.