Fifa International · resolved market
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Meg" during the Portugal vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x60df89d01f91bc73b5c6cff9c9f70bed6aa81b7398d8086be3e4b3290e8597b9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Fifa Internationalevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,403
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,403 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Fifa International is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Fifa International | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd555…e28abacked No | 77c | 458.69$352 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.54 | 359 | 58.5%210 W · 149 L | +13.1wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed Yes | 24c | 198.2$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 240 | 37.1%89 W · 151 L | -17.0wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Yes | 23c | 189$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 512 | 50.4%258 W · 254 L | +31.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1811…913bbacked No | 74c | 95.54$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71f5…4ccebacked Yes | 24c | 63.74$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.22 | 86 | 47.7%41 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21eb…a9fdbacked Yes | 25c | 62$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -3.0wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 19c | 54$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.26 | 662 | 39.6%262 W · 400 L | -48.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x373a…f4c1backed No | 73c | 52.52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.18 | 341 | 51%174 W · 167 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ded…9025backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 210 | 63.3%133 W · 77 L | +27.4wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x30f6…004fbacked Yes | 24c | 46.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 359 | 54%194 W · 165 L | +20.7wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4b8a…f4a4backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 764 | 45.9%351 W · 413 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3b…ad18backed No | 77c | 36$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.36per pick | 64cpaid | +76.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceab…dce7backed No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 544 | 50.6%275 W · 269 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 77c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 427 | 37.2%159 W · 268 L | -15.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf571…d2dcbacked No | 76c | 23.2$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +4.8wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 23$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 198 | 74.7%148 W · 50 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f4…9d7fbacked No | 78c | 22.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.07 | 108 | 53.7%58 W · 50 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94ce…edf2backed No | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 55 | 52.7%29 W · 26 L | +6.7wins | +0.12per pick | 40cpaid | +94.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 89 | 36%32 W · 57 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9764…a691backed No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 76c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.56 | 61 | 60.7%37 W · 24 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2317…56c3backed No | 76c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.36 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Fifa International and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the announcers say "Nutmeg" or "Meg" during the Portugal vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?this page
- Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Portugal vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Fan" 10+ times during the Portugal vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Foul" 10+ times during the Portugal vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Goal" 60+ times during the Portugal vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Long ball" during the Portugal vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Patience" during the Portugal vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Penalty Shootout" during the Portugal vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?Yes won
- Will the announcers say "Shot" 10+ times during the Portugal vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "Tempo" during the Portugal vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?No won
- Will the announcers say "What a Save" during the Portugal vs Croatia FIFA World Cup Match?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.