Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6220c84727d4d766d281c573a5d11be806f031ceb5155d8e0553ce8c1de326c6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,551
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,681
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,551 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 821.05$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.01 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x56b3…3fa2backed Yes | 24c | 462.02$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.72 | 895 | 44.7%400 W · 495 L | +30.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5757…9e19backed No | 73c | 399.62$293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.05 | 451 | 62.1%280 W · 171 L | +19.8wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 32c | 220.04$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.69 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 69c | 205.2$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.33 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 69c | 161.54$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.42 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 8c | 156.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.1 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 76c | 151$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed Yes | 26c | 145$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.04 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 29c | 141.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 71c | 127.17$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 71c | 124.98$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.08 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 119.17$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e0c…8b5ebacked No | 69c | 112.77$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 926 | 78.2%724 W · 202 L | +51.2wins | +0.06per pick | 73cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 70c | 110$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed No | 74c | 101.91$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 53c | 92.08$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.05 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 70c | 92$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.6 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8827…5d62backed No | 68c | 78.04$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.75 | 1,772 | 50.5%895 W · 877 L | +43.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 70c | 68.82$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.78 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 70c | 56.9$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.07 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 24c | 53.8$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.13 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…9295backed No | 75c | 52.5$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.12 | 583 | 58%338 W · 245 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 46c | 50.39$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.13 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 69c | 50.35$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.52 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed No | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 30c | 49.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked Yes | 62c | 47.77$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.48 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 70c | 46.82$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7419…594abacked Yes | 32c | 37.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 79 | 25.3%20 W · 59 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 30c | 36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.85 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfe01…b8aebacked No | 71c | 35.21$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.21 | 264 | 58.7%155 W · 109 L | -20.5wins | -0.08per pick | 66cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 66c | 31.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.83 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 70c | 29.03$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc036…2b99backed No | 72c | 27.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 56 | 64.3%36 W · 20 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 71cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xed62…c51dbacked Yes | 40c | 27.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.03 | 346 | 28.9%100 W · 246 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c2…f88bbacked Yes | 63c | 27$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed Yes | 64c | 26.54$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd425…603ebacked No | 77c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 92 | 72.8%67 W · 25 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd670…1e02backed No | 77c | 25.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.94 | 222 | 65.8%146 W · 76 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2ed…9d98backed No | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 822 | 68.7%565 W · 257 L | +72.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 59+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x831a…ad82backed No | 72c | 22.58$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.24 | 196 | 48.5%95 W · 101 L | +9.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6424…2718backed No | 70c | 20.69$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.21 | 427 | 54.6%233 W · 194 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 72c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.6 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4248…60abbacked No | 69c | 17.91$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.55 | 2,219 | 58.7%1,303 W · 916 L | -11.5wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2af3…bcb4backed No | 70c | 16.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 69c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb077…74d3backed No | 70c | 14.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.31 | 669 | 44.7%299 W · 370 L | +3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa51…6199backed No | 71c | 14.18$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.11 | 622 | 75.2%468 W · 154 L | +15.5wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9b1…79d7backed No | 74c | 13.97$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.63 | 889 | 73.2%651 W · 238 L | +20.3wins | +0.02per pick | 71cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9438…fc9bbacked No | 73c | 13.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.7 | 75 | 40%30 W · 45 L | +4.5wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 24?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.