Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 24?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa28c74629586e8331b52344bd067850739c9014396b7002b33983be0c224f18c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,559
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,337
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,559 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 47c | 766.77$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$408.82 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 38c | 498.99$191 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 25c | 247.15$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb501…9a53backed Yes | 38c | 219.99$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.49 | 175 | 36%63 W · 112 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a3b…957bbacked No | 6c | 205.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 370 | 56.5%209 W · 161 L | +31.7wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +19%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 59c | 205.2$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.08 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 16c | 199.18$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 62c | 188.68$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.73 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 46c | 183.09$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.43 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 66c | 179.02$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.87 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe086…0450backed No | 53c | 167.65$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.85 | 1,243 | 52.5%652 W · 591 L | -18.7wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 23c | 167.37$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.91 | 2,626 | 54%1,418 W · 1,208 L | -56.4wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f20…7163backed Yes | 28c | 142.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.2 | 353 | 25.5%90 W · 263 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 57c | 138.72$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.64 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fc1…a3bbbacked No | 66c | 113.54$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.18 | 876 | 29.2%256 W · 620 L | -53.7wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 108.94$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.82 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 40c | 108.82$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.08 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5484…84e8backed No | 59c | 106.04$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.77 | 111 | 69.4%77 W · 34 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea5e…a678backed No | 57c | 88$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.52 | 1,218 | 42%512 W · 706 L | +31.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 48c | 87$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.76 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf66f…54bcbacked Yes | 68c | 83.84$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.43 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61f1…7aefbacked Yes | 39c | 83.17$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.73 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +4.3wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed Yes | 41c | 81.73$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.52 | 945 | 52.5%496 W · 449 L | +27.0wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 40c | 81.7$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.7 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 39c | 80$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 181 | 42.5%77 W · 104 L | -4.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…b9e8backed Yes | 37c | 78.99$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.39 | 101 | 34.7%35 W · 66 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 54c | 78.41$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.34 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 45c | 78.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 82 | 15.9%13 W · 69 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed No | 52c | 75$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 333 | 50.2%167 W · 166 L | -11.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 61c | 74.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.59 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked Yes | 39c | 72.49$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.92 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf9cc…59abbacked No | 61c | 65.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.99 | 688 | 67.2%462 W · 226 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 72c | 64.51$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.64 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 55c | 60.74$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.27 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37df…f8b9backed No | 61c | 59.41$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.24 | 119 | 58.8%70 W · 49 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 43c | 55.16$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.19 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca07…6269backed No | 60c | 54.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 716 | 49.4%354 W · 362 L | -18.9wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 40c | 52.74$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.1 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ec8…99d2backed No | 66c | 52.71$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 833 | 60.7%506 W · 327 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc41d…c51dbacked Yes | 42c | 51.49$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.86 | 161 | 44.1%71 W · 90 L | +14.3wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 61c | 51.06$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 61c | 51$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.11 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb32e…d9cebacked No | 52c | 51$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.52 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.9wins | -0.24per pick | 36cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 34c | 51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.55 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c3…35d4backed No | 61c | 50.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.18 | 212 | 68.4%145 W · 67 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 487 | 43.7%213 W · 274 L | -9.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x65c7…e100backed Yes | 41c | 47.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.86 | 227 | 44.1%100 W · 127 L | +6.2wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 67c | 47$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.49 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 58c | 46.82$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.04 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 49c | 46.18$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 28c | 44.12$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.21 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcff7…2fb1backed No | 56c | 44$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.42 | 214 | 51.9%111 W · 103 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 32c | 39.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x329c…3667backed Yes | 39c | 38.46$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.46 | 123 | 34.1%42 W · 81 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6fd4…5cfcbacked No | 62c | 36.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.91 | 572 | 64.5%369 W · 203 L | -10.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x890c…9068backed Yes | 39c | 36.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.52 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 66c | 36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9db6…e1f8backed No | 63c | 35.93$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 111 | 57.7%64 W · 47 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 61cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45e7…d77cbacked Yes | 41c | 34.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 495 | 51.9%257 W · 238 L | -25.1wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7faa…c757backed Yes | 42c | 34.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.2 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5a…3a18backed Yes | 44c | 32.79$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +127.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b3…1b7ebacked No | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,385 | 65.8%911 W · 474 L | +62.8wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 61c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe266…03b5backed Yes | 62c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73e7…8b59backed Yes | 37c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.9 | 434 | 41.5%180 W · 254 L | +29.3wins | +0.07per pick | 35cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 667 | 35.4%236 W · 431 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3b8…6983backed Yes | 34c | 29.3$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 874 | 37.3%326 W · 548 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4374…3d05backed No | 63c | 28.63$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.04 | 341 | 51.3%175 W · 166 L | -26.9wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ba3…9cabbacked Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -43.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 61c | 24.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 59c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.45 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.6 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd702…2087backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 75c | 18.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf55f…8e92backed No | 67c | 17.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.84 | 165 | 48.5%80 W · 85 L | -13.3wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0f12…59ddbacked No | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 940 | 66.4%624 W · 316 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 24?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 96-97°F on June 24?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 98-99°F on June 24?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.