TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Sharks vs. Avalanche

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Avalancheof Sharks, Avalanche
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,273,094
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,285,127

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,273,094 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 424 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x9976…67dabacked Sharks29c605,858$173,509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$173,509.1919848.5%96 W · 102 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Avalanche72c397,073$284,885 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112,188.371,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Sharks29c123,898$35,369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,369.461,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1496…a429backed Avalanche72c91,138$65,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25,842.5713553.3%72 W · 63 L0.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd7a5…7c26backed Avalanche73c67,150$49,020 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,130.54365.1%28 W · 15 L+3.9wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+17.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Avalanche72c65,332$46,724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18,608.4516656.6%94 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe72b…b0a0backed Avalanche74c51,350$37,996 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,353.655052%26 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb6ae…4df8backed Sharks29c44,192$12,688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,688.1436748%176 W · 191 L-12.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68dd…f0b2backed Sharks28c39,882$11,186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,185.7225449.2%125 W · 129 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Sharks26c36,254$9,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,426.0656152%292 W · 269 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Avalanche72c35,500$25,560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,9408657%49 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+23.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xc257…358ebacked Sharks28c35,000$9,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,80048545.4%220 W · 265 L-7.8wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Sharks27c26,000$7,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,0201,44149.2%709 W · 732 L+6.5wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe90b…5da2backed Avalanche72c25,135$18,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,044.0738748.3%187 W · 200 L+1.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb66…2f53backed Avalanche72c20,738$15,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,738.28848.9%43 W · 45 L-4.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-10.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked Sharks28c20,000$5,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,60032946.8%154 W · 175 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe524…d34fbacked Avalanche73c17,786$12,984 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,802.35261.5%32 W · 20 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick58cpaid+7.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb84a…055dbacked Avalanche71c17,300$12,283 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,017560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick59cpaid+2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb45a…192cbacked Avalanche71c15,000$10,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,35022443.8%98 W · 126 L-5.3wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Avalanche71c14,381$10,206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,174.7361950.1%310 W · 309 L-7.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88d1…18dabacked Avalanche72c13,903$10,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,892.781861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+16.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x163e…dc5bbacked Avalanche72c13,889$10,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,888.893243.8%14 W · 18 L-3.1wins-0.10per pick53cpaid-22.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x39d3…9ef0backed Avalanche71c13,770$9,840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,929.6918641.9%78 W · 108 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-11.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x14ac…cb21backed Avalanche71c12,082$8,578 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,503.7821755.3%120 W · 97 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x886e…afd6backed Avalanche73c11,346$8,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,045.81957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+10.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2e00…eb46backed Avalanche71c10,324$7,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,994.025242.3%22 W · 30 L-4.9wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-19.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x91fd…1cdebacked Sharks28c10,000$2,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,80013948.2%67 W · 72 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Avalanche72c9,209$6,625 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,583.951,43450.8%728 W · 706 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x42b5…b5b6backed Sharks29c9,042$2,579 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,579.141,37749.1%676 W · 701 L+39.2wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb68…a240backed Sharks28c9,000$2,520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,519.9950049.6%248 W · 252 L+16.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8cdc…b83fbacked Avalanche72c8,854$6,375 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,479.176147.5%29 W · 32 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbd09…a188backed Sharks29c7,927$2,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,279.4861748.5%299 W · 318 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Avalanche71c7,857$5,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,255.492,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Avalanche72c7,639$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,138.8840356.3%227 W · 176 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7298…fe8dbacked Sharks29c7,586$2,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,199.9933243.7%145 W · 187 L-16.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1455…e5cdbacked Sharks28c7,313$2,048 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,047.6479350.1%397 W · 396 L-11.5wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed Avalanche71c6,925$4,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,008.3748549.7%241 W · 244 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d92…8676backed Avalanche72c6,911$4,976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,935.198252.4%43 W · 39 L+0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0d16…d24dbacked Avalanche71c6,000$4,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,740.014050%20 W · 20 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-11.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xabf5…cfebbacked Avalanche72c5,902$4,225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,676.5627048.1%130 W · 140 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8c58…e330backed Sharks17c5,711$959 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$959.3942254.3%229 W · 193 L+18.3wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Avalanche71c5,513$3,914 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,598.661,55551.4%800 W · 755 L+12.2wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Avalanche72c5,000$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4004057.5%23 W · 17 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eb3…f766backed Avalanche71c4,990$3,543 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,447.154047.6%257 W · 283 L-15.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Avalanche71c4,407$3,147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,259.971,94849.4%962 W · 986 L+24.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3fa…a26cbacked Avalanche70c4,300$3,010 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,29015145%68 W · 83 L-7.3wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9870…b9d3backed Avalanche72c4,167$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.6731550.8%160 W · 155 L-11.6wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab4e…c4a0backed Sharks5c4,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2004259.5%25 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+10.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5555…2af1backed Sharks28c4,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1204440.9%18 W · 26 L-3.5wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-21.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb4b7…3c8bbacked Sharks29c4,000$1,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1607347.9%35 W · 38 L-0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x33dd…ef8abacked Sharks28c4,000$1,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,1204841.7%20 W · 28 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Sharks30c3,667$1,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,10085250.2%428 W · 424 L-26.2wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x40da…0b85backed Avalanche71c3,482$2,472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,009.785560%33 W · 22 L+5.9wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+27.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbfdf…8e02backed Sharks27c3,200$864 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86434845.4%158 W · 190 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Sharks11c3,066$338 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$337.523,70450.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L+105.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid-4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Avalanche71c3,009$2,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$883.7645955.1%253 W · 206 L+1.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid-0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8738…222bbacked Avalanche73c3,000$2,190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8106949.3%34 W · 35 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-7.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x81f0…cbb1backed Avalanche71c2,972$2,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$851.523348.5%16 W · 17 L-3.1wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-19.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Avalanche75c2,747$2,071 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$676.911,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e41…a1c1backed Avalanche72c2,720$1,956 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$764.751181.8%9 W · 2 L+2.3wins+0.21per pick61cpaid+30.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x098b…1fa5backed Sharks27c2,500$675 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6752147.6%10 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x10d4…d953backed Sharks28c2,500$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.9944551.2%228 W · 217 L+16.4wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7681…ac03backed Sharks12c2,338$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.9427334.4%94 W · 179 L+12.7wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+22%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Sharks23c2,141$484 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$483.671,35452.6%712 W · 642 L+46.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49dd…2a32backed Avalanche72c2,134$1,531 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.116163.9%39 W · 22 L+8.1wins+0.13per pick51cpaid+20.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x5215…3164backed Sharks30c2,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60014142.6%60 W · 81 L-6.9wins-0.05per pick47cpaid-8.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe403…3d50backed Avalanche71c1,916$1,360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$555.5611252.7%59 W · 53 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7f52…c525backed Avalanche72c1,848$1,331 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.427745.5%35 W · 42 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x96bc…7fb4backed Sharks28c1,800$504 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50424845.2%112 W · 136 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick41cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x412f…30fabacked Avalanche72c1,775$1,278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4977737.7%29 W · 48 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick44cpaid-22.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x39fd…5a3fbacked Avalanche70c1,712$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.63141.9%13 W · 18 L-4.0wins-0.13per pick55cpaid-24.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xbc4f…f1e0backed Sharks30c1,692$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.551050%5 W · 5 L+0.6wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed Sharks31c1,633$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50014940.9%61 W · 88 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfa5b…88acbacked Avalanche71c1,608$1,142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$466.452339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe9f5…3e7abacked Sharks27c1,582$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.146656.1%37 W · 29 L+2.6wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbad2…5296backed Avalanche71c1,555$1,098 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.589249.9%445 W · 447 L+10.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e3…6dfebacked Sharks27c1,532$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4144856.3%27 W · 21 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+16.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Avalanche70c1,455$1,024 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$431.022,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf62b…844abacked Avalanche71c1,408$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.4514654.1%79 W · 67 L-7.9wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-9.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Avalanche71c1,380$980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$400.275155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Sharks25c1,296$324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.595049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe975…9d22backed Avalanche72c1,235$890 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$345.2433154.1%179 W · 152 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Avalanche71c1,216$863 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352.5245751.6%236 W · 221 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9405…c071backed Avalanche73c1,176$859 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.567647.4%36 W · 40 L-4.2wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-12.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Avalanche70c1,119$788 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.551,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Sharks28c1,064$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.2891653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3c7e…a65fbacked Sharks29c1,056$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.3260337.5%226 W · 377 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Avalanche70c1,027$719 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.0263249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Avalanche71c1,018$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$295.4332650%163 W · 163 L+0.4wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6ce…7ec8backed Avalanche71c1,012$718 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.4362346.9%292 W · 331 L-3.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Sharks1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Avalanche71c1,000$710 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29070547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf41a…ea2bbacked Avalanche73c1,000$730 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27091945.6%419 W · 500 L-27.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x17e5…f205backed Sharks1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102420.8%2 W · 240 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-17.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7da6…4ff3backed Avalanche62c950.05$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361.0216241.4%67 W · 95 L-6.4wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-10%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x622e…07abbacked Avalanche72c894.44$644 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$250.444047.5%19 W · 21 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0fab…a46ebacked Avalanche71c893.35$638 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.77366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69d9…9881backed Sharks30c866.67$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26030657.8%177 W · 129 L+0.5wins0.00per pick58cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Sharks28c856.07$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.1452946.9%248 W · 281 L+11.3wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+6.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0d2…ad14backed Avalanche71c825.7$589 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$236.21030%3 W · 7 L-2.8wins-0.28per pick58cpaid-58.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.