Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x62934ac687dc3790fa736eb2e56f0bba9fdb3da50339123e17e5cdc8bd2fc6d9

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 16, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $294,379
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $109,173

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $294,379 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xb9eb…9701backed Yes	0c	28,587$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	26,216$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.46	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe89c…3d99backed Yes	0c	22,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x45a6…69f3backed Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	56	14.3%8 W · 48 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-34%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb48c…919abacked Yes	0c	20,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	17,105$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.31	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	15,134$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.84	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	0c	9,527$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.92	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	6,984$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.65	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,504$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.01	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x482f…53f7backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes	5c	4,406$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.88	149	28.2%42 W · 107 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	4,063$146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.51	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	0c	2,906$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.62	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x648c…3e19backed Yes	0c	2,608$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.6	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	3c	2,594$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.09	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	5c	2,207$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e6e…fa58backed Yes	4c	2,000$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86	66	30.3%20 W · 46 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	3c	1,636$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.77	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	1,318$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.34	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	6c	1,260$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.5	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfc8c…35b1backed Yes	2c	1,214$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	2c	1,031$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.95	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	795.87$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.51	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	733.87$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe953…a4f9backed Yes	3c	700$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	93	30.1%28 W · 65 L	+4.8wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	2c	677.7$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	4c	513.42$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.2	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes	2c	510.2$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	272	24.3%66 W · 206 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	5c	378.19$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.7	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	4c	305$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.56	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event