Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3c2301cdeca0239987e07238364cc4ae8e6c60ead57c7baa118fd7aa5bcf9fa6

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $225,584
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $55,320

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $225,584 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	37,395$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.4	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	25,474$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.5	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	10,394$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	8,210$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.78	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	6,455$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.96	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	0c	5,821$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	5,820$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.96	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	0c	5,474$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.09	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes	1c	4,783$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.91	95	3.2%3 W · 92 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-86.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	1c	4,062$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.69	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c6c…1f86backed Yes	5c	3,410$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.52	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	2,722$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf382…be0ebacked Yes	1c	2,389$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.07	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+120.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes	3c	1,844$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.65	94	16%15 W · 79 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	6c	1,800$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.52	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	5c	1,069$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.47	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	827.16$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.79	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	810.03$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.9	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	710.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.87	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes	5c	673.98$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.7	60	3.3%2 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	5c	668.11$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.6	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	2c	540.48$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.05	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48a3…bfecbacked Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	10.9%6 W · 49 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x482f…53f7backed Yes	6c	353.17$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xbe31…b42dbacked Yes	4c	307.69$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	85	30.6%26 W · 59 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	32cpaid	-31.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e6e…fa58backed Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	66	30.3%20 W · 46 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x219f…dbd9backed Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	8c	298.05$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.84	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	4c	269.24$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.77	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	5c	245.78$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.39	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xecb8…c405backed Yes	6c	200$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x689a…779ebacked Yes	6c	200$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	225	9.8%22 W · 203 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf8cf…c109backed Yes	6c	199.99$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event