Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30f5dc4352fb8665f56d4afcbc8ed3791c12edfdff85947217d30f46d49365c0

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $228,824
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $100,754

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $228,824 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xc00a…e3f0backed Yes	0c	29,236$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.4	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb9eb…9701backed Yes	1c	14,228$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	1c	9,111$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.18	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9b9e…ae15backed Yes	1c	8,035$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120.35	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	7,585$469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$468.8	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	6,783$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.68	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	6,235$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.92	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes	2c	4,443$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	94	16%15 W · 79 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	3c	4,342$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.35	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	3c	3,011$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.88	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	2,976$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.38	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x482f…53f7backed Yes	1c	2,857$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xc732…45b3backed Yes	1c	2,819$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.38	81	8.6%7 W · 74 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+122.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	2,642$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.07	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	2,621$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.55	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	0c	2,287$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.18	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	13c	1,568$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	2c	1,444$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.57	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	1,442$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.98	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	4c	1,287$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.1	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	8c	1,285$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.69	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes	1c	1,262$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	119	4.2%5 W · 114 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-39.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	8c	1,225$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.79	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	6c	1,044$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.8	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	1c	955.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.65	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	948.34$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.31	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e1a…7690backed Yes	1c	900.13$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	1c	843.23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.65	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	779.77$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.92	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	749.91$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.19	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	8c	710.5$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.53	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe953…a4f9backed Yes	9c	500$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	93	30.1%28 W · 65 L	+4.8wins	+0.05per pick	25cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	2c	500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	6c	475.69$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.31	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	3c	425$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.27	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	422.83$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e6e…fa58backed Yes	13c	417.93$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.66	66	30.3%20 W · 46 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	33cpaid	-23%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	7c	416.52$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.14	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	10c	370.57$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdfca…645abacked Yes	9c	352$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.28	278	20.9%58 W · 220 L	-8.0wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	6c	350$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.7	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6a8…58fdbacked Yes	9c	344.26$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.35	122	13.9%17 W · 105 L	-4.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf7ba…d31cbacked Yes	8c	300$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.7	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e2d…f77fbacked Yes	6c	259.72$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.58	99	19.2%19 W · 80 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes	6c	206.32$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	159	18.9%30 W · 129 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes	7c	203.91$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.97	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes	6c	202.19$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.61	129	19.4%25 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	9c	194.52$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.62	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes	9c	178.47$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.05	117	23.1%27 W · 90 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	10c	155.28$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.39	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d9f…461ebacked Yes	11c	143.97$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.44	95	54.7%52 W · 43 L	+9.6wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+31%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	9c	131.76$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.22	276	47.8%132 W · 144 L	+10.1wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event