Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98028dea9559c69abbcbdf82c8c3b6e586fc221dd6ac586d7ecd3e6663e8b532

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $305,983
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $118,082

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $305,983 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	28,684$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.68	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	0c	19,366$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x02b4…7092backed Yes	0c	13,987$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.99	83	8.4%7 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd66…fb6dbacked Yes	1c	13,840$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.15	95	3.2%3 W · 92 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-86.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	13,653$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.98	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x391f…cf8dbacked Yes	0c	11,985$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.68	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	-5.3wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	10,448$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.03	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd8c4…848dbacked Yes	0c	10,000$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	609	7.7%47 W · 562 L	+3.8wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	6,900$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	552	5.6%31 W · 521 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	5,876$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.75	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,555$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.33	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	5,519$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.58	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	5,100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.96	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x57f1…078abacked Yes	8c	4,872$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.43	71	33.8%24 W · 47 L	-4.5wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	1c	4,548$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.17	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	4,398$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.56	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	4,122$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.57	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c6c…1f86backed Yes	9c	3,884$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.92	45	24.4%11 W · 34 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	2c	3,805$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.53	994	10.6%105 W · 889 L	-30.0wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xae8e…afc1backed Yes	1c	3,665$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.88	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	3cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	0c	3,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9b9e…ae15backed Yes	1c	3,482$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.39	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	3,056$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.92	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x45b8…2204backed Yes	1c	2,092$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	27	0%0 W · 27 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	1,998$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.53	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x53bd…5d30backed Yes	1c	1,547$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.83	106	6.6%7 W · 99 L	-4.9wins	-0.05per pick	11cpaid	-79.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	1,398$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.32	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	2c	1,221$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.08	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	1c	1,200$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.73	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x25f2…0822backed Yes	10c	980.3$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.03	74	13.5%10 W · 64 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-3.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xecf5…b7afbacked Yes	11c	917.87$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.97	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes	1c	839.16$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.34	94	16%15 W · 79 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes	8c	500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	187	26.7%50 W · 137 L	-1.6wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	4c	471.33$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.68	188	14.4%27 W · 161 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+21%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48a3…bfecbacked Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	55	10.9%6 W · 49 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	+9.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf46…8c1dbacked Yes	7c	384.91$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.94	627	13.2%83 W · 544 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-52.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x814f…aeecbacked Yes	9c	383.33$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	58	19%11 W · 47 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	8c	378.35$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.27	252	11.5%29 W · 223 L	+5.0wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	3c	355.84$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1f67…2fd3backed Yes	11c	350$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.5	60	3.3%2 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	5cpaid	-78.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x219f…dbd9backed Yes	6c	300$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	45	13.3%6 W · 39 L	+1.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+16.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xeb81…3600backed Yes	10c	300$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.13per pick	25cpaid	+18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	7c	290$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.3	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87a9…4bdfbacked Yes	6c	280.89$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.66	131	19.8%26 W · 105 L	+2.3wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	4c	250$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.45	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cf…c109backed Yes	9c	199.98$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	9c	150$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	731	15.2%111 W · 620 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xecb8…c405backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	16	25%4 W · 12 L	+0.6wins	+0.04per pick	21cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event