Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xb9b81c62279a42dd99158af6248209ca44ffc441efc52e6bb28631ef355a448c

Rebuilt 14 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jun 17, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $156,459
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $83,087

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $156,459 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	6,722$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.23	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	5,626$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$244.28	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	7c	5,565$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.34	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	4,059$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.42	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	3,840$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.32	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	15c	3,717$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572.11	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x813e…5d51backed Yes	1c	3,672$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.69	313	4.8%15 W · 298 L	+4.6wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	5c	2,463$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.97	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	5c	2,226$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.69	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	1c	2,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	8c	1,895$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.07	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	9c	1,786$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$166.47	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	1,635$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.2	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	5c	1,531$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.89	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	4c	1,395$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.89	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	1,250$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.16	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	3c	1,227$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.17	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	16c	1,171$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.71	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	1,170$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.55	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9b9e…ae15backed Yes	5c	1,063$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.05	25	16%4 W · 21 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-22.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	1c	1,050$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0693…522dbacked Yes	2c	1,016$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.8wins	-0.28per pick	28cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98aa…8b8fbacked Yes	10c	997.07$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.73	94	16%15 W · 79 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes	10c	861.08$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.6	114	30.7%35 W · 79 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	6c	852.14$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.17	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes	7c	840.16$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.14	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	9c	792.53$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.18	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	10c	758.47$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.3	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes	3c	752.65$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.46	691	5.5%38 W · 653 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	3c	732.93$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.78	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x482f…53f7backed Yes	3c	606.81$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	81	2.5%2 W · 79 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	3cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	5c	504.32$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.9	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x57f1…078abacked Yes	15c	502.47$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.47	71	33.8%24 W · 47 L	-4.5wins	-0.06per pick	40cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	8c	501.76$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.21	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes	3c	466.09$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.59	159	18.9%30 W · 129 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes	11c	435.16$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	233	14.2%33 W · 200 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x433e…6be1backed Yes	19c	425.59$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	90	24.4%22 W · 68 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3423…fe57backed Yes	4c	419.11$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.79	508	28.3%144 W · 364 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	11c	412.71$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.22	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x339d…06dabacked Yes	10c	383.62$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.42	88	21.6%19 W · 69 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	4c	362.74$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb20f…1a7dbacked Yes	16c	361.7$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.45	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	16cpaid	+42.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7ba…d31cbacked Yes	13c	300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	46	10.9%5 W · 41 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21a3…9e97backed Yes	8c	270$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.44	33	42.4%14 W · 19 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	39cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc772…88afbacked Yes	13c	253.69$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.21	12	50%6 W · 6 L	+2.7wins	+0.22per pick	28cpaid	+111%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xb7cc…fe89backed Yes	17c	248.09$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.94	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	19cpaid	+25.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc594…e5c5backed Yes	8c	222.53$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.58	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-42.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	14c	207.25$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.44	276	47.8%132 W · 144 L	+10.1wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	9c	202.59$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb9df…d830backed Yes	16c	192.44$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.61	160	17.5%28 W · 132 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x353f…1623backed Yes	17c	181.75$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	33cpaid	-44.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes	15c	178.47$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.88	117	23.1%27 W · 90 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes	10c	151.66$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.91	400	16.8%67 W · 333 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e2d…f77fbacked Yes	12c	150.5$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.01	99	19.2%19 W · 80 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4198…7be2backed Yes	11c	131.16$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	51	31.4%16 W · 35 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x064b…eae5backed Yes	9c	118.4$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.14	74	39.2%29 W · 45 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66f5…5e71backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.5	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.12per pick	25cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d9f…461ebacked Yes	16c	84.24$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.26	95	54.7%52 W · 43 L	+9.6wins	+0.10per pick	45cpaid	+31%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe086…0450backed Yes	16c	74.85$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.93	71	50.7%36 W · 35 L	+3.7wins	+0.05per pick	46cpaid	+15.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event