TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tennis · resolved market

Roland Garros WTA: Iva Jovic vs Emma Navarro

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Iva Jovicof Iva Jovic, Emma Navarro
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$329,538
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$383,903

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $329,538 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 245 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tennis
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf519…906bbacked Emma Navarro25c32,015$7,882 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,882.1764755.2%357 W · 290 L-6.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd104…710bbacked Iva Jovic53c23,974$12,706 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,2681546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.2wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5af4…a7dfbacked Emma Navarro48c21,321$10,139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,139.365030%15 W · 35 L-1.6wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-32.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f3c…2f57backed Iva Jovic54c14,000$7,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,479.5430740.7%125 W · 182 L-23.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xcd65…ee96backed Emma Navarro48c12,930$6,250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,25036346.8%170 W · 193 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick48cpaid+0.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a3a…eb9abacked Iva Jovic52c10,546$5,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,062.1525453.1%135 W · 119 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x979f…4032backed Emma Navarro49c10,204$4,994 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,993.910162.4%63 W · 38 L+2.1wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x460a…3e13backed Emma Navarro48c9,651$4,604 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,603.75862.5%5 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+17.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd9d…b730backed Emma Navarro47c9,332$4,386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,385.954553.3%24 W · 21 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Iva Jovic52c8,767$4,551 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,215.6216746.1%77 W · 90 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Iva Jovic53c8,000$4,240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,76044163.7%281 W · 160 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick65cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Iva Jovic66c6,838$4,539 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,298.958,21745.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L+166.6wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-16.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Iva Jovic53c5,677$3,009 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,668.351,19348.9%583 W · 610 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d8a…5201backed Emma Navarro17c5,000$860 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8601,42128.6%407 W · 1,014 L+4.5wins0.00per pick28cpaid-8.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x780a…84f0backed Iva Jovic53c3,937$2,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,850.573366.7%22 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick66cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x58b3…653cbacked Emma Navarro14c3,400$476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47645036%162 W · 288 L+12.1wins+0.03per pick33cpaid+14.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1eaf…9bf0backed Emma Navarro47c3,077$1,446 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,446.1856757.1%324 W · 243 L+13.3wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21f3…35e3backed Emma Navarro46c3,066$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,410.1378536.1%283 W · 502 L+36.6wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+15.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4379…2e16backed Emma Navarro47c3,000$1,410 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,41068935%241 W · 448 L+9.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b90…2194backed Iva Jovic53c3,000$1,580 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,419.9929146%134 W · 157 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xab4e…c4a0backed Emma Navarro6c2,814$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.5910339.8%41 W · 62 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+34.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x32b4…8b21backed Emma Navarro42c2,326$983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$982.873,60542.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L-43.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b1e…65c1backed Emma Navarro17c2,201$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$374.177951.9%41 W · 38 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21b5…1db6backed Emma Navarro14c2,143$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.9928562.8%179 W · 106 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc181…6e97backed Emma Navarro49c2,028$988 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98815845.6%72 W · 86 L-12.6wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-17.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa4f9…9419backed Emma Navarro8c2,000$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16030827.6%85 W · 223 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15e9…26bebacked Iva Jovic52c2,000$1,040 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96022842.5%97 W · 131 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0257…22b2backed Emma Navarro39c2,000$780 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$779.9959348.9%290 W · 303 L+8.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+5.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Iva Jovic73c1,991$1,446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.6211,43543.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L+17.8wins0.00per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb946…2671backed Emma Navarro47c1,928$906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$906.1457842.4%245 W · 333 L+9.5wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde76…7d17backed Iva Jovic53c1,890$1,002 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$888.312452.4%65 W · 59 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98db…dd17backed Iva Jovic75c1,868$1,409 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.035,35056.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L+228.4wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-6.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xde9f…d43cbacked Emma Navarro8c1,867$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.086,59950.7%3,343 W · 3,256 L+259.7wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-4.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Iva Jovic52c1,696$888 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$808.363,25648.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L-53.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Iva Jovic52c1,510$785 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.791,65849.9%828 W · 830 L+7.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x698b…4426backed Emma Navarro47c1,391$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.6372452.6%381 W · 343 L+34.5wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7750…a3f3backed Emma Navarro15c1,364$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19911215.2%17 W · 95 L-6.9wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-18.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3cf6…0cbdbacked Emma Navarro47c1,270$597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$596.92441.7%10 W · 14 L-1.8wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-19%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x329c…2485backed Emma Navarro46c1,150$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5294050%20 W · 20 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+26.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6dcf…dc6ebacked Emma Navarro18c1,128$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1985735.1%20 W · 37 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick30cpaid+35%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7b02…7939backed Iva Jovic51c1,111$567 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$544.391353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick47cpaid-2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a89…df4bbacked Iva Jovic51c1,073$547 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$525.9814657.5%84 W · 62 L+12.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+25.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Emma Navarro47c1,043$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$490.111,11842.8%479 W · 639 L-7.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce9d…3c05backed Emma Navarro49c1,020$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001,61550.6%817 W · 798 L-17.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Emma Navarro47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4701,51037.7%569 W · 941 L+24.5wins+0.02per pick36cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc00…79f8backed Iva Jovic53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47041060.5%248 W · 162 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3499…60b5backed Emma Navarro47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4701233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.9wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-15%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda20…cb8dbacked Emma Navarro47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470650%3 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x764a…83d3backed Emma Navarro47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4701050%5 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick43cpaid+15.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5006…48cabacked Emma Navarro47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.9wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-51.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xe84a…02febacked Emma Navarro47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.0wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb2fe…7558backed Emma Navarro46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4603935.9%14 W · 25 L-4.1wins-0.11per pick46cpaid-10.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x478e…0c83backed Emma Navarro46c1,000$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-15.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xadd5…ce89backed Iva Jovic51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4901952.6%10 W · 9 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-10.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82af…f7d1backed Iva Jovic51c1,000$510 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$490540%2 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcc36…d35dbacked Emma Navarro47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47040%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xcef5…3881backed Emma Navarro47c1,000$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$470540%2 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-0.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2642…bfc4backed Emma Navarro19c999.96$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.994231%13 W · 29 L+4.8wins+0.12per pick19cpaid+25.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x66b1…340fbacked Emma Navarro46c993.5$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.011,15844.4%514 W · 644 L+2.3wins0.00per pick44cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb392…99a8backed Iva Jovic52c961.54$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$461.541457.1%8 W · 6 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick55cpaid-4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6c3…55a3backed Emma Navarro30c933$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.5314835.8%53 W · 95 L-10.4wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-28.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8a47…3b21backed Iva Jovic53c921$488 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$432.8711952.1%62 W · 57 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+24.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Iva Jovic52c861$446 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4153,90150.1%1,953 W · 1,948 L-13.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x28e0…2e6bbacked Iva Jovic52c788.66$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.6751744.7%231 W · 286 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0ad…683fbacked Emma Navarro49c788.55$386 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.3924852%129 W · 119 L+0.6wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd90f…7b32backed Emma Navarro43c785.22$335 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$335.243050%15 W · 15 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26e7…cc6cbacked Iva Jovic53c754.71$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$354.7139238.8%152 W · 240 L+11.1wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0602…a12ebacked Emma Navarro13c751.46$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.49560%3 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.17per pick43cpaid+28.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe31a…adffbacked Iva Jovic53c700$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32925244.4%112 W · 140 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc718…64a8backed Iva Jovic71c655.61$464 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.5391755.5%509 W · 408 L+2.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaeb5…58e2backed Emma Navarro19c625$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$118.7581938.9%319 W · 500 L-4.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb01…5715backed Iva Jovic54c609.16$329 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$280.2110234.3%35 W · 67 L-3.7wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f64…3633backed Emma Navarro46c562.76$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.8799249.4%490 W · 502 L-9.5wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40f7…1f5ebacked Emma Navarro47c550$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$258.574743.6%326 W · 421 L-6.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1da3…2f94backed Emma Navarro46c543.48$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25016743.7%73 W · 94 L-5.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x081e…f76ebacked Iva Jovic53c537.74$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.741,44648.8%706 W · 740 L-1.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Emma Navarro47c534.64$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.282,46238.5%948 W · 1,514 L+93.1wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x46fb…8eaebacked Emma Navarro48c520.83$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2505437%20 W · 34 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Emma Navarro6c500$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329,28644.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L-245.7wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0249…5b4bbacked Emma Navarro47c500$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23511133.3%37 W · 74 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x058e…a2acbacked Iva Jovic53c500$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23532851.8%170 W · 158 L+1.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1250…8f99backed Iva Jovic53c499.21$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$234.6310161.4%62 W · 39 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick59cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x03ba…bebabacked Iva Jovic74c495.11$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.521,02843.3%445 W · 583 L-24.5wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-21.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Iva Jovic51c490$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$240.17,72447.8%3,691 W · 4,033 L+41.2wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8725…4806backed Emma Navarro21c486.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x99d7…6435backed Iva Jovic53c470.74$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.251,14853%608 W · 540 L+25.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+22.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60a3…3850backed Emma Navarro9c469.95$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.8485624.4%209 W · 647 L-9.7wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-25.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57c3…44b8backed Emma Navarro48c457.56$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.586225.8%16 W · 46 L+3.7wins+0.06per pick20cpaid+113.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Iva Jovic52c439$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.725567.3%37 W · 18 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+12.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x545d…c122backed Emma Navarro48c437.5$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21046030.4%140 W · 320 L-18.7wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-19.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4dc2…3fa2backed Iva Jovic54c425.68$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.681060%6 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Emma Navarro45c420.2$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.663,66145.2%1,654 W · 2,007 L-8.7wins0.00per pick45cpaid-12.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ff…3214backed Emma Navarro10c408.56$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4338422.4%86 W · 298 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc4f…9804backed Iva Jovic52c403.16$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.121,07752.4%564 W · 513 L+30.0wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x422c…9840backed Emma Navarro47c400$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18823429.9%70 W · 164 L-1.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc314…6a46backed Emma Navarro5c399$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9518410.9%20 W · 164 L-10.2wins-0.06per pick16cpaid-31%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x35e7…8331backed Emma Navarro48c389.43$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.072,24742.7%960 W · 1,287 L+33.4wins+0.01per pick41cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x707b…69f2backed Iva Jovic53c377.36$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.3631146%143 W · 168 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Iva Jovic52c373.07$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.0787251.1%446 W · 426 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Emma Navarro47c346$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.6234242.4%145 W · 197 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.