NBA · resolved market
Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 228.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63766dbbac2a0e8af90578829ebecc6c0d09f3f88fd8d8f04d5b75c6bc439093
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $23,684
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,002
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,684 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 26 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23fb…fe50backed Under | 48c | 6,538$3,138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,138 | 51 | 54.9%28 W · 23 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,400 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x351e…de8abacked Under | 48c | 4,142$1,988 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,988 | 377 | 47.5%179 W · 198 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x08c5…43edbacked Under | 48c | 3,302$1,585 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,584.88 | 443 | 52.4%232 W · 211 L | +10.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabba…e3ebbacked Under | 48c | 2,800$1,344 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,344 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Over | 52c | 2,789$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.72 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked Over | 52c | 2,788$1,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338 | 657 | 50.1%329 W · 328 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Over | 52c | 2,500$1,300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,199.99 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3dee…3d1bbacked Over | 56c | 1,427$799 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.79 | 46 | 54.3%25 W · 21 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Over | 20c | 1,353$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,082.59 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Over | 53c | 601.89$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$282.89 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8532…738bbacked Over | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 324 | 50.3%163 W · 161 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 52c | 413.09$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.43 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Over | 52c | 402.08$209 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$193.04 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 57c | 365.16$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.24 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Under | 44c | 226$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.44 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Over | 53c | 150.94$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.94 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04c0…0927backed Over | 53c | 131.55$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.83 | 188 | 52.7%99 W · 89 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f53…acb1backed Over | 53c | 84.91$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.91 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37de…f512backed Over | 16c | 84.9$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.32 | 1,390 | 26%361 W · 1,029 L | -5.6wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Over | 50c | 84.9$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.45 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Under | 31c | 81.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee60…6902backed Over | 50c | 73.54$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.77 | 376 | 65.4%246 W · 130 L | +62.0wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…b8cabacked Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 133 | 52.6%70 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7492…6568backed Over | 53c | 47.17$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.17 | 319 | 55.2%176 W · 143 L | +13.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eb7…d529backed Under | 48c | 46.17$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.16 | 293 | 51.9%152 W · 141 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 228.5this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Kings won
- Cavaliers vs. KingsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Over won
- Dean Wade: Points O/U 5.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Malik Monk: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Nique Clifford: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Kings won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Kings won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Kings won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Kings won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Kings won
- Zach LaVine: Points O/U 16.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.