NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x14b2aca37401055273b9f44cc7f69252d46bbfe2755d30fd9af1fba814320a59
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Cavaliers, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $254,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $254,708
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $254,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 48 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4924…3782backed Kings | 53c | 208,666$110,502 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98,164.71 | 874 | 51.5%450 W · 424 L | +15.8wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…c80cbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 193,750$91,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91,062.63 | 68 | 41.2%28 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Kings | 50c | 30,189$15,148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,041.21 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Cavaliers | 47c | 20,000$9,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,400 | 2,153 | 51.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L | +76.7wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 11,095$5,302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,302 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d13…92f3backed Cavaliers | 54c | 6,087$3,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,286 | 702 | 46.4%326 W · 376 L | -20.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc617…a854backed Cavaliers | 54c | 5,324$2,875 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,874.92 | 426 | 48.1%205 W · 221 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfdf…8e02backed Cavaliers | 48c | 4,000$1,920 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,920 | 339 | 45.1%153 W · 186 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe90b…5da2backed Kings | 52c | 4,000$2,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,920 | 1,045 | 49%512 W · 533 L | +21.8wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 3,177$1,557 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,556.73 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Kings | 52c | 2,274$1,178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.87 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Cavaliers | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kings | 45c | 1,818$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Cavaliers | 47c | 1,622$767 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$766.56 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5a…bb9bbacked Cavaliers | 51c | 1,065$543 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$542.78 | 165 | 47.3%78 W · 87 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Kings | 49c | 1,006$493 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.17 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Cavaliers | 32c | 436.78$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.5 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed Cavaliers | 54c | 382$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.28 | 2,078 | 53.6%1,113 W · 965 L | +44.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Kings | 67c | 356.85$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.76 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec5…65ecbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 287.25$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.88 | 78 | 38.5%30 W · 48 L | -6.3wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d55…7bc7backed Kings | 46c | 211.74$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.34 | 911 | 48.1%438 W · 473 L | -11.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…bfd7backed Cavaliers | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 53.1%17 W · 15 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3dc1…e318backed Kings | 51c | 181.51$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.62 | 530 | 43.8%232 W · 298 L | -25.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Cavaliers | 54c | 120.76$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.21 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe09c…d04fbacked Kings | 53c | 94.32$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.33 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Kings | 50c | 73.16$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.4 | 3,902 | 47.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L | -17.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Cavaliers | 48c | 72.92$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 930 | 36.5%339 W · 591 L | -20.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d21…08d3backed Kings | 51c | 70.3$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.49 | 251 | 43%108 W · 143 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Kings | 49c | 70$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb107…a3f8backed Kings | 52c | 70$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.95 | 1,018 | 51.6%525 W · 493 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3d57…2b4ebacked Kings | 51c | 55$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.18 | 539 | 45.3%244 W · 295 L | -9.6wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b07…869abacked Kings | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb153…d8b5backed Kings | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Kings | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd730…1948backed Cavaliers | 48c | 49.14$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.59 | 171 | 55.6%95 W · 76 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Kings | 51c | 47.28$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd84…9f62backed Kings | 49c | 46.51$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.49 | 143 | 52.4%75 W · 68 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ab0…f2d7backed Kings | 51c | 46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.63 | 204 | 48.5%99 W · 105 L | +3.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…e949backed Cavaliers | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 100 | 46%46 W · 54 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9310…569fbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 97 | 45.4%44 W · 53 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 35$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 629 | 48.6%306 W · 323 L | +4.2wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Cavaliers | 48c | 34.52$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.57 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8aab…8d40backed Kings | 51c | 32.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 164 | 43.9%72 W · 92 L | -9.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x137e…20d7backed Kings | 51c | 32.54$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 150 | 40%60 W · 90 L | -14.1wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4a87…fb21backed Kings | 69c | 31.88$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.88 | 624 | 50%312 W · 312 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Kings | 59c | 30.18$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 927 | 50.6%469 W · 458 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa33c…1b33backed Kings | 53c | 30.13$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 628 | 44.9%282 W · 346 L | -21.3wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc525…daf0backed Kings | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Kings won
- Cavaliers vs. KingsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Over won
- Dean Wade: Points O/U 5.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Malik Monk: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Nique Clifford: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)Kings won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Kings won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Kings won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Kings won
- Zach LaVine: Points O/U 16.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.