TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 229.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$72,265
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,317

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $72,265 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over49c41,845$20,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,228.642,66648%1,279 W · 1,387 L-8.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x21a1…2964backed Under51c16,820$8,578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,578450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under50c16,494$8,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,318.149,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Over50c15,000$7,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,5001,55652.8%822 W · 734 L+40.9wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaea2…6a02backed Under50c8,743$4,373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,373922.2%2 W · 7 L-2.3wins-0.25per pick48cpaid-53.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x23fb…fe50backed Under50c8,000$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,0005154.9%28 W · 23 L+2.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x08c5…43edbacked Under51c4,257$2,171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,170.5544352.4%232 W · 211 L+10.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb48f…d015backed Under50c4,000$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,00012454.8%68 W · 56 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+7.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Over51c3,922$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,921.571,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Under50c3,691$1,846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,845.5837747.5%179 W · 198 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd04d…bfc2backed Under51c1,765$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$900.152,43549.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L+30.3wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over50c1,114$557 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.243,28549.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L+5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under46c944.44$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$434.444,87848%2,341 W · 2,537 L+61.9wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a9a…c308backed Over54c925.93$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Over49c793.8$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.842,51249.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L+6.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over73c557.06$408 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.988,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Under32c500$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.537930.6%116 W · 263 L+5.0wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3dc1…e318backed Over49c354.76$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.9853043.8%232 W · 298 L-25.4wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9d55…7bc7backed Over49c300$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15291148.1%438 W · 473 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x37de…f512backed Under14c209.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.151,39026%361 W · 1,029 L-5.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf2d…e660backed Under50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10011343.4%49 W · 64 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0a2d…4f43backed Over50c160$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8022850.9%116 W · 112 L+7.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf704…bed4backed Over52c159.09$82 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.616943.8%74 W · 95 L-5.4wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-12.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2fd6…5b41backed Under51c149.84$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb38…1659backed Under51c140$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.4771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.8wins+0.26per pick46cpaid+62.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x95b7…d633backed Over49c120$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.245146.1%208 W · 243 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-6.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849f…0665backed Over49c100$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5195047.2%448 W · 502 L-28.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9e16…0127backed Under50c97$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4122143%95 W · 126 L-12.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ab0…f2d7backed Over50c95.08$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4520448.5%99 W · 105 L+3.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd84…9f62backed Over50c83.74$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.8714352.4%75 W · 68 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3d57…2b4ebacked Over50c76$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.3853945.3%244 W · 295 L-9.6wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8aab…8d40backed Over49c62.6$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7616443.9%72 W · 92 L-9.4wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x137e…20d7backed Over49c62.6$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.7615040%60 W · 90 L-14.1wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-21.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xa33c…1b33backed Over50c53.38$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.4662844.9%282 W · 346 L-21.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-8.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb153…d8b5backed Under50c49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.417346.6%34 W · 39 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d21…08d3backed Over51c48.62$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.8425143%108 W · 143 L-13.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e77backed Over51c42.87$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.1992750.6%469 W · 458 L-1.8wins0.00per pick51cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc525…daf0backed Over50c35$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.55644.6%25 W · 31 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Over39c30$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.355846.8%261 W · 297 L+8.0wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ff7…9ab6backed Under51c24.74$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.5345460.4%274 W · 180 L+21.6wins+0.05per pick56cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under49c23.46$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.53,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Under49c22.8$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.133,99548.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L+101.9wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.