NBA · resolved market
Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x96bb993cb057e24e6691407761161ca210d4e2d35134905687ebb871dd192dde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Kingsof Cavaliers, Kings
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,242
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,530
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,242 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d36…68fdbacked Cavaliers | 54c | 18,536$10,006 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,005.97 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | -15.3wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kings | 49c | 4,211$2,058 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,153.08 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Kings | 50c | 4,000$2,001 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,999.29 | 3,995 | 48.9%1,952 W · 2,043 L | +101.9wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b46…684dbacked Kings | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 1,645 | 47.5%782 W · 863 L | +40.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Kings | 50c | 2,488$1,255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,232.63 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf28e…cab2backed Kings | 50c | 1,759$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$879.59 | 566 | 46.5%263 W · 303 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa965…3565backed Kings | 40c | 1,493$602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$891.06 | 1,911 | 45.4%868 W · 1,043 L | +22.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Kings | 51c | 1,493$756 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$736.21 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Kings | 50c | 1,477$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$733.64 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb0b…3790backed Kings | 17c | 1,214$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,007.99 | 279 | 37.3%104 W · 175 L | +57.6wins | +0.21per pick | 17cpaid | +187%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0x94d8…8835backed Cavaliers | 57c | 1,000$570 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$570 | 134 | 64.2%86 W · 48 L | +8.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda5f…2e9bbacked Kings | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.63 | 419 | 54.4%228 W · 191 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x357b…0b65backed Cavaliers | 61c | 819.75$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 271 | 58.3%158 W · 113 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Kings | 41c | 718.02$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.81 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa8…56dbbacked Kings | 50c | 556.89$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.45 | 489 | 56.4%276 W · 213 L | +31.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Kings | 41c | 410.25$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.05 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0db6…e1babacked Kings | 20c | 400$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.5wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +101.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…6b57backed Kings | 20c | 400$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$320 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.51per pick | 25cpaid | +202.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Kings | 48c | 364$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$188.51 | 5,844 | 46.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x227c…ee3fbacked Cavaliers | 45c | 344$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.8 | 112 | 45.5%51 W · 61 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x682f…3265backed Cavaliers | 59c | 338.98$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,389 | 54.9%762 W · 627 L | +16.7wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe45d…f77ebacked Cavaliers | 51c | 295.37$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 253 | 36.8%93 W · 160 L | -10.2wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -15%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c49…ca9dbacked Cavaliers | 49c | 210$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.9 | 182 | 40.7%74 W · 108 L | -8.7wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f18…2080backed Cavaliers | 59c | 200$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 248 | 50%124 W · 124 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ce…8f73backed Kings | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 11cpaid | +87.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc876…5b66backed Kings | 20c | 200$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 12cpaid | +421.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbac8…d2b9backed Kings | 51c | 186.25$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.26 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Cavaliers | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed Kings | 41c | 156.62$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.06 | 506 | 51.2%259 W · 247 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc091…3d42backed Kings | 50c | 155$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.5 | 543 | 51.6%280 W · 263 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1787…c311backed Cavaliers | 64c | 154.37$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99 | 1,444 | 58.1%839 W · 605 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Kings | 36c | 150$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96 | 354 | 44.6%158 W · 196 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Cavaliers | 47c | 143.35$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.21 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x187b…8848backed Cavaliers | 60c | 133.33$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 722 | 50.6%365 W · 357 L | -17.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaf0e…3197backed Cavaliers | 60c | 115.9$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 619 | 57.5%356 W · 263 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x454a…4039backed Cavaliers | 59c | 102$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.18 | 43 | 58.1%25 W · 18 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf406…c9bfbacked Cavaliers | 57c | 100$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 80 | 46.3%37 W · 43 L | -5.7wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Cavaliers | 60c | 99.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.99 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ca…9ef8backed Cavaliers | 57c | 96.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 285 | 54.7%156 W · 129 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7563…1fb3backed Kings | 37c | 94$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.22 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x61bf…9862backed Kings | 43c | 93.08$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.09 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | +1.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Cavaliers | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2dd…59bbbacked Kings | 42c | 81.1$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.04 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -20%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd52d…412dbacked Kings | 54c | 80.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.88 | 535 | 39.6%212 W · 323 L | -11.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…b8cabacked Cavaliers | 64c | 78.01$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 133 | 52.6%70 W · 63 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Cavaliers | 47c | 76$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.72 | 903 | 57%515 W · 388 L | +40.0wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf90…e485backed Cavaliers | 41c | 73.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6533…0f9cbacked Cavaliers | 64c | 72.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 493 | 58.6%289 W · 204 L | +9.3wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Kings | 41c | 71.01$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.73 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Kings | 39c | 71$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.31 | 38 | 60.5%23 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x57e5…e51ebacked Cavaliers | 59c | 70$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 333 | 60.4%201 W · 132 L | +17.6wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Cavaliers | 63c | 57$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.91 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3938…c6cbbacked Cavaliers | 62c | 50$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 99 | 60.6%60 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed95…889cbacked Cavaliers | 48c | 49$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.52 | 197 | 50.3%99 W · 98 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe70c…c938backed Kings | 52c | 48.08$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.08 | 745 | 47.2%352 W · 393 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958e…ecbfbacked Kings | 44c | 45.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.75 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Cavaliers | 50c | 40.19$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9b…bc4abacked Cavaliers | 47c | 36.72$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 378 | 50.3%190 W · 188 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d84…21b1backed Kings | 52c | 31.15$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.95 | 666 | 46.8%312 W · 354 L | -29.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -11%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5320…f3b2backed Kings | 55c | 30.91$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x711a…9240backed Cavaliers | 60c | 29.55$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.79 | 408 | 49%200 W · 208 L | -12.8wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84c6…f8afbacked Cavaliers | 63c | 28$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…6b2dbacked Cavaliers | 61c | 27$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.47 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3754…2d4ebacked Kings | 44c | 25.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.39 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc525…daf0backed Kings | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x385d…5e85backed Cavaliers | 60c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed Cavaliers | 61c | 23$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 54cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…87a4backed Cavaliers | 63c | 21$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6728…4ce2backed Kings | 50c | 20.82$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.41 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Kings | 51c | 20.6$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.09 | 52 | 50%26 W · 26 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1315…d32ebacked Cavaliers | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3286…35b7backed Cavaliers | 56c | 18.96$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.62 | 69 | 44.9%31 W · 38 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…9e2fbacked Cavaliers | 56c | 18.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 26 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Cavaliers (-10.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Cavaliers (-6.5)Kings won
- Cavaliers vs. KingsCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: 1H MoneylineCavaliers won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: 1H O/U 113.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: 1H O/U 114.5Under won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 228.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 229.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 230.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 231.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 232.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 233.5Over won
- Cavaliers vs. Kings: O/U 234.5Over won
- Dean Wade: Points O/U 5.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Points O/U 13.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 10.5No won
- Domantas Sabonis: Rebounds O/U 9.5No won
- James Harden: Assists O/U 7.5Yes won
- Malik Monk: Assists O/U 3.5No won
- Nique Clifford: Points O/U 8.5Yes won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-11.5)Kings won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-12.5)Kings won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-13.5)Kings won
- Spread: Cavaliers (-14.5)Kings won
- Zach LaVine: Points O/U 16.5No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.