NBA · resolved market
Spread: Rockets (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x63df01ec35383719a9ac5fcfcabcd0978adaa880b0256c1368b0923d6ba38951
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Grizzliesof Rockets, Grizzlies
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $21,601
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,527
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,601 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc66e…4e50backed Rockets | 53c | 2,854$1,513 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,512.62 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e6e…be00backed Rockets | 53c | 2,754$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.62 | 458 | 50.4%231 W · 227 L | +11.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc06d…7d35backed Rockets | 53c | 2,212$1,172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,172.36 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47a6…69e0backed Grizzlies | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.66 | 387 | 50.4%195 W · 192 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc37…2f65backed Grizzlies | 47c | 2,128$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,127.66 | 416 | 49.8%207 W · 209 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fba…ff46backed Rockets | 53c | 2,125$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,126.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd8…c08ebacked Grizzlies | 47c | 1,888$887 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000.64 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a24…d934backed Grizzlies | 47c | 1,826$858 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$967.78 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a8…b4afbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 1,772$833 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$939.16 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +2.1wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +107.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x25f5…dc16backed Grizzlies | 47c | 1,507$708 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$798.71 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.27per pick | 48cpaid | +57.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9aea…5ad6backed Grizzlies | 47c | 1,432$673 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$758.96 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.26per pick | 51cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cd2…efdcbacked Rockets | 53c | 1,234$654 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$654.02 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c8d…3ac2backed Grizzlies | 47c | 931$438 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$493.43 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21e8…b85ebacked Rockets | 56c | 892.86$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Rockets | 53c | 873.68$461 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.69 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Grizzlies | 51c | 787.46$399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$388.27 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5662…d0aabacked Grizzlies | 47c | 747$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7be1…200ebacked Rockets | 55c | 600$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330 | 364 | 49.7%181 W · 183 L | -11.6wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Rockets | 49c | 514.59$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.15 | 4,878 | 48%2,341 W · 2,537 L | +61.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cfc…4f30backed Grizzlies | 44c | 499.99$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed Rockets | 54c | 487.56$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$263.72 | 2,666 | 48%1,279 W · 1,387 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca5…e6c9backed Rockets | 55c | 460$253 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253 | 112 | 56.3%63 W · 49 L | +9.0wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd106…c79cbacked Grizzlies | 46c | 456.46$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.98 | 4,781 | 50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L | +20.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Grizzlies | 48c | 416.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$216.67 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Grizzlies | 44c | 364.93$161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$204.36 | 4,325 | 47%2,031 W · 2,294 L | -69.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8f…1fcabacked Rockets | 53c | 355$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3d…efd4backed Rockets | 53c | 299$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Rockets | 35c | 285$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…25a0backed Grizzlies | 65c | 285$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.75 | 1,522 | 49.6%755 W · 767 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9069…9c14backed Rockets | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 145 | 57.2%83 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd219…8c5bbacked Rockets | 53c | 277$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08b6…beb8backed Rockets | 53c | 277$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Grizzlies | 44c | 272.73$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.73 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0c94…a43bbacked Grizzlies | 48c | 267.72$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.21 | 511 | 46.6%238 W · 273 L | -13.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Grizzlies | 47c | 250$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.5 | 955 | 48.5%463 W · 492 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90cc…f801backed Rockets | 53c | 244$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e51…e4f7backed Grizzlies | 45c | 235.1$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.16 | 432 | 44%190 W · 242 L | -18.3wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a9b…7303backed Grizzlies | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 634 | 47.5%301 W · 333 L | -19.8wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf3…52cfbacked Rockets | 53c | 226$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Rockets | 54c | 185.19$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe9e2…3000backed Rockets | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 47 | 44.7%21 W · 26 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 55cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Grizzlies | 47c | 127.65$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.65 | 2,602 | 50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L | -20.7wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x309d…3a8abacked Grizzlies | 47c | 108$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.24 | 65 | 41.5%27 W · 38 L | -5.6wins | -0.09per pick | 50cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…caa2backed Rockets | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 98 | 33.7%33 W · 65 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x20ec…fa43backed Rockets | 54c | 93.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 610 | 56.1%342 W · 268 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e65…701cbacked Rockets | 55c | 81.82$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Grizzlies | 47c | 79$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.87 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce3e…2f24backed Rockets | 55c | 72.73$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 250 | 56.8%142 W · 108 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7f7…06c5backed Grizzlies | 45c | 63.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 177 | 50.8%90 W · 87 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…0a6abacked Rockets | 55c | 63.4$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 67 | 56.7%38 W · 29 L | +5.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x074e…317fbacked Grizzlies | 48c | 60$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.2 | 165 | 53.9%89 W · 76 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84f6…2e01backed Rockets | 53c | 59.96$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.78 | 167 | 49.1%82 W · 85 L | -3.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd562…b6d1backed Rockets | 54c | 53.47$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.87 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41a3…017dbacked Rockets | 45c | 48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 329 | 52.9%174 W · 155 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Rockets | 57c | 43.86$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x92b5…2defbacked Grizzlies | 48c | 37.5$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da1…c13bbacked Rockets | 52c | 37.5$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 421 | 46.1%194 W · 227 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc653…bb8cbacked Rockets | 54c | 30.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 409 | 60.6%248 W · 161 L | +7.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Rockets | 66c | 30.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 1,573 | 53.4%840 W · 733 L | -12.8wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Rockets | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,786 | 53.2%950 W · 836 L | +52.7wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa60c…b395backed Rockets | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe9…a400backed Rockets | 53c | 29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Rockets | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 3,285 | 49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb665…95a8backed Rockets | 53c | 26$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x392c…0bb4backed Rockets | 55c | 25.95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 116 | 37.9%44 W · 72 L | -10.1wins | -0.09per pick | 47cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6098…d746backed Rockets | 53c | 23$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.19 | 28 | 14.3%4 W · 24 L | -9.8wins | -0.35per pick | 49cpaid | -72.9%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xf18a…e4e5backed Grizzlies | 54c | 22.45$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 3,551 | 46.8%1,663 W · 1,888 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8f…3782backed Rockets | 47c | 22.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 397 | 36.3%144 W · 253 L | -27.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe315…3911backed Rockets | 57c | 20.82$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 576 | 57.8%333 W · 243 L | +13.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Rockets | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Rockets (-9.5)this page
- Cam Spencer: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
- Grizzlies vs. RocketsRockets won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Under won
- Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Under won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5No won
- Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 19.5No won
- Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
- Jock Landale: Points O/U 12.5No won
- Santi Aldama: Assists O/U 2.5No won
- Santi Aldama: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
- Spread: Rockets (-10.5)Grizzlies won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.