NBA · resolved market

Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0c69b825ba6f63342affd81bc819314f44a6c04273c7a2c1e19a800ae01b106a

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Underof Over, Under
Resolved: Jan 27, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $107,728
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $109,538

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $107,728 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 85 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in NBA
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x4924…3782backed Over	53c	63,449$33,602 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33,602.25	874	51.5%450 W · 424 L	+15.8wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x20d6…3856backed Under	47c	50,000$23,500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$26,500	398	42.5%169 W · 229 L	-9.6wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb7f5…c669backed Under	48c	11,500$5,495 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,005	662	50.8%336 W · 326 L	+15.7wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	+4.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e1…017bbacked Under	47c	9,999$4,700 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,299.47	245	54.7%134 W · 111 L	+3.6wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+28.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75ee…ca3cbacked Over	52c	9,590$5,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,000	23	56.5%13 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Under	48c	7,974$3,807 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,167.06	9,722	49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L	-2.8wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe20a…e469backed Over	52c	7,680$3,994 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,993.73	2,361	48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L	-41.8wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e12…20e9backed Under	48c	6,250$3,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,250	293	47.4%139 W · 154 L	-5.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7e3a…3246backed Over	53c	3,336$1,768 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,768.05	199	54.8%109 W · 90 L	+12.2wins	+0.06per pick	49cpaid	+12.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7a30…8abdbacked Over	54c	2,174$1,174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,173.91	507	54.2%275 W · 232 L	+13.6wins	+0.03per pick	52cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Over	52c	2,000$1,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,040	877	50.2%440 W · 437 L	-19.7wins	-0.02per pick	52cpaid	-5.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05b9…2adfbacked Over	53c	1,878$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	120	51.7%62 W · 58 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa965…3565backed Under	47c	1,500$710 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$790	1,911	45.4%868 W · 1,043 L	+22.1wins	+0.01per pick	44cpaid	+3.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c16…09cbbacked Under	46c	1,169$538 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$631.21	132	48.5%64 W · 68 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	49cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x253d…aa62backed Under	47c	1,141$536 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$604.73	583	47%274 W · 309 L	-12.5wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under	46c	1,100$511 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$588.79	3,285	49.1%1,613 W · 1,672 L	+5.3wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	-0.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Under	47c	1,071$502 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$568.44	4,781	50.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L	+20.7wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9cb3…0a77backed Over	53c	1,031$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	157	56.7%89 W · 68 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1831…6c99backed Under	48c	1,000$480 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$520	193	50.3%97 W · 96 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	-3.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6fb6…fa2cbacked Under	49c	877$434 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$443	218	52.8%115 W · 103 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under	46c	800.34$372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$428.83	2,736	46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L	-67.4wins	-0.02per pick	49cpaid	-4.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under	48c	753.75$362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$391.97	5,053	50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L	+110.9wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed Over	53c	557.23$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$293.93	2,666	48%1,279 W · 1,387 L	-8.2wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x68a9…e73abacked Under	47c	532$250 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$281.96	210	45.2%95 W · 115 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Over	52c	500$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260	841	50.3%423 W · 418 L	+0.8wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa42a…d91fbacked Under	49c	310.12$152 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$158.12	623	47.5%296 W · 327 L	-17.3wins	-0.03per pick	50cpaid	-6.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x15d5…ef7bbacked Under	47c	300$141 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159	1,198	38.8%465 W · 733 L	+11.6wins	+0.01per pick	38cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe77b…f10abacked Under	48c	289.6$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$150.59	109	53.2%58 W · 51 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	50cpaid	+2.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb79b…cf30backed Under	47c	212.77$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$112.77	34	52.9%18 W · 16 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	-1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f3e…e4a3backed Under	53c	200$106 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94	410	52%213 W · 197 L	-1.4wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	-1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Under	48c	200$96 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$104	186	50%93 W · 93 L	+6.9wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Under	46c	129.03$59 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$69.68	2,602	50.6%1,316 W · 1,286 L	-20.7wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Under	47c	120.38$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$63.25	2,902	38.4%1,113 W · 1,789 L	-51.9wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Under	48c	117.88$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.32	3,591	50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L	+21.6wins	+0.01per pick	49cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc56b…fe0abacked Over	54c	115.69$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.47	279	43%120 W · 159 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x75fd…9a86backed Under	47c	111$52 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$58.83	160	36.3%58 W · 102 L	-15.0wins	-0.09per pick	46cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Under	44c	110$48 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$61.6	83	55.4%46 W · 37 L	+4.8wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+11.9%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf572…065abacked Under	47c	109$51 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$57.77	57	50.9%29 W · 28 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-3.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee82…1965backed Over	49c	102.04$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	66	65.2%43 W · 23 L	+10.1wins	+0.15per pick	50cpaid	+28.2%equal weight	62+0.11 edge/pick
0x47e5…9b73backed Under	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	425	51.3%218 W · 207 L	-7.2wins	-0.02per pick	53cpaid	-4.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd44d…389dbacked Under	54c	100$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$46	413	54%223 W · 190 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	+1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa65b…b0c0backed Under	44c	96$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$53.76	95	60%57 W · 38 L	+10.7wins	+0.11per pick	49cpaid	+20.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x1393…8392backed Under	45c	96$43 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$52.53	90	48.9%44 W · 46 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	48cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92cf…8b35backed Under	53c	94.34$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$44.34	1,110	52%577 W · 533 L	+8.0wins	+0.01per pick	51cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Under	49c	86$42 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$43.86	2,753	50.7%1,396 W · 1,357 L	+47.0wins	+0.02per pick	49cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x28a2…91a4backed Under	44c	73$32 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$40.88	88	52.3%46 W · 42 L	+1.9wins	+0.02per pick	50cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x84f6…2e01backed Under	49c	61.89$30 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$31.56	167	49.1%82 W · 85 L	-3.8wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e4f…243cbacked Under	47c	57$27 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.21	64	54.7%35 W · 29 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	50cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x470e…07c0backed Under	44c	53$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$29.68	73	53.4%39 W · 34 L	+2.6wins	+0.04per pick	50cpaid	+6.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x70b1…73b2backed Under	45c	52.14$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.68	179	49.2%88 W · 91 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Under	45c	51.24$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$28.18	432	44%190 W · 242 L	-18.3wins	-0.04per pick	48cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x78a4…05afbacked Over	56c	50$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	32	50%16 W · 16 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	50cpaid	0%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1105…b163backed Under	48c	43.98$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.97	22	59.1%13 W · 9 L	+1.4wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+11.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Under	48c	42.66$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$22.08	2,512	49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L	+6.9wins	0.00per pick	49cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3518…c4aebacked Under	48c	39.58$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20.58	112	41.1%46 W · 66 L	-4.7wins	-0.04per pick	45cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a3…0a78backed Under	47c	37.49$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.87	140	50.7%71 W · 69 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	50cpaid	-2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x195e…5b32backed Over	54c	37.04$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	36	36.1%13 W · 23 L	-6.2wins	-0.17per pick	53cpaid	-33.6%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x44b0…2a3fbacked Under	47c	35.25$17 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.56	66	34.8%23 W · 43 L	-8.9wins	-0.13per pick	48cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	39-0.10 edge/pick
0x27ed…57ebbacked Under	44c	34$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$19.04	73	61.6%45 W · 28 L	+9.6wins	+0.13per pick	48cpaid	+27.3%equal weight	61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf683…f2dfbacked Over	54c	33$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.94	30	56.7%17 W · 13 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	51cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a2c…38ccbacked Over	56c	29$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.24	32	37.5%12 W · 20 L	-4.4wins	-0.14per pick	51cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7eaa…3ea5backed Over	53c	28.3$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	226	55.3%125 W · 101 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	55cpaid	+0.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x07eb…4b4cbacked Over	53c	28$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.84	37	48.6%18 W · 19 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-5.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x684b…47edbacked Over	56c	28$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.68	27	37%10 W · 17 L	-3.6wins	-0.13per pick	50cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xc6c6…5004backed Under	48c	27.08$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.08	34	41.2%14 W · 20 L	-2.8wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-16.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x56d2…e5f5backed Over	56c	27$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.12	25	60%15 W · 10 L	+2.3wins	+0.09per pick	51cpaid	+22.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa029…c912backed Over	53c	27$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.31	39	51.3%20 W · 19 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	53cpaid	-4.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3100…9bc9backed Under	47c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$13.25	180	43.3%78 W · 102 L	-9.4wins	-0.05per pick	49cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f8d…1a96backed Under	48c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.96	94	45.7%43 W · 51 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83b1…cac1backed Over	56c	25$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	24	41.7%10 W · 14 L	-3.0wins	-0.13per pick	54cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2d61…d43cbacked Under	48c	25$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.9	288	52.8%152 W · 136 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	52cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe74e…90b6backed Over	55c	23.09$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.7	82	48.8%40 W · 42 L	-3.5wins	-0.04per pick	53cpaid	-7.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x30ee…5d12backed Over	56c	23$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.88	30	43.3%13 W · 17 L	-2.7wins	-0.09per pick	52cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3add…e482backed Over	56c	23$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.88	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	-1.7wins	-0.07per pick	53cpaid	-13.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xda03…7f8cbacked Over	53c	23$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.19	24	50%12 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	53cpaid	-6.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfacf…e97abacked Over	53c	22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.66	37	51.4%19 W · 18 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	51cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4889…9b17backed Over	56c	22$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.32	27	51.9%14 W · 13 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	52cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc39b…5754backed Over	56c	21$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.76	39	46.2%18 W · 21 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	51cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ef9…b5bfbacked Over	53c	21$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.13	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-2.6wins	-0.11per pick	50cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xe178…e480backed Under	52c	20$10 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$9.6	27	44.4%12 W · 15 L	-1.5wins	-0.06per pick	50cpaid	-13.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1ab0…8383backed Over	56c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	21	42.9%9 W · 12 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	50cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3e29…c992backed Over	56c	20$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	51	64.7%33 W · 18 L	+6.4wins	+0.13per pick	52cpaid	+24.3%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe315…3911backed Over	57c	19.23$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.86	576	57.8%333 W · 243 L	+13.0wins	+0.02per pick	56cpaid	+2.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa032…9b15backed Over	53c	19$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.07	61	57.4%35 W · 26 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	52cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6468…e03dbacked Over	56c	18$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.08	30	53.3%16 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	54cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 17 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5this page
Cam Spencer: Assists O/U 6.5Yes won
Grizzlies vs. RocketsRockets won
Grizzlies vs. Rockets: 1H MoneylineGrizzlies won
Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 222.5Under won
Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 224.5Under won
Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 225.5Under won
Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 226.5Under won
Jabari Smith Jr.: Points O/U 14.5No won
Jabari Smith Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5Yes won
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Points O/U 19.5No won
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 4.5Yes won
Jock Landale: Points O/U 12.5No won
Santi Aldama: Assists O/U 2.5No won
Santi Aldama: Rebounds O/U 5.5Yes won
Spread: Rockets (-10.5)Grizzlies won
Spread: Rockets (-9.5)Grizzlies won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Grizzlies vs. Rockets: O/U 223.5

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event