TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Lol · resolved market

Game Handicap: SEN (-1.5) vs Disguised (+1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Sentinelsof Sentinels, Disguised
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Lolevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$61,015
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$76,064

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $61,015 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 102 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Lol is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Lol
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5286…0d47backed Sentinels52c10,100$5,298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,802.1727637.3%103 W · 173 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x974c…3269backed Disguised48c7,853$3,733 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,732.721947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+77.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa4d…0bd2backed Sentinels53c7,428$3,937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,490.96666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+18.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd202…8973backed Disguised46c4,990$2,287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,286.5338235.6%136 W · 246 L-15.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba43…c6c0backed Sentinels54c4,212$2,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,919.517348%83 W · 90 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1047…9036backed Disguised47c2,803$1,318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,317.643348.5%16 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xda3a…381fbacked Sentinels51c2,688$1,382 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,306.211,48550.1%744 W · 741 L+67.0wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+5.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5d7e…2ef7backed Sentinels70c2,616$1,834 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$781.9639162.7%245 W · 146 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Disguised45c2,611$1,175 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,174.971,30838.6%505 W · 803 L-64.8wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-11.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1660…5598backed Sentinels52c2,500$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,2008648.8%42 W · 44 L-7.6wins-0.09per pick58cpaid-17.8%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x57b2…9da2backed Disguised49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98035443.2%153 W · 201 L+12.7wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e7c…164dbacked Disguised48c1,608$772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$771.6844743.6%195 W · 252 L+1.7wins0.00per pick43cpaid+3.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d7d…df55backed Disguised47c1,511$710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$710757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4f4e…b690backed Disguised47c1,300$611 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61182554.8%452 W · 373 L+5.3wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe410…d4d1backed Sentinels55c1,273$700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$572.7215352.9%81 W · 72 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick55cpaid+4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x076d…8d4cbacked Disguised47c1,223$572 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$572.3963944.6%285 W · 354 L-18.1wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x99e4…e4c4backed Disguised48c1,176$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.486836.8%25 W · 43 L-2.6wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-14.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfd14…2267backed Sentinels57c1,079$616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463.322,36232%755 W · 1,607 L+42.0wins+0.02per pick30cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb7ab…16d0backed Sentinels67c1,033$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$336.911,17066.2%774 W · 396 L+69.6wins+0.06per pick60cpaid+5.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8935…7daabacked Disguised45c1,010$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.062,93844.5%1,308 W · 1,630 L-92.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7786…c005backed Disguised48c1,005$482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$482.322536.9%83 W · 142 L-11.4wins-0.05per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x10b0…8525backed Sentinels51c929.39$478 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$451.41,79451.1%917 W · 877 L+50.5wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf247…d8cabacked Sentinels55c904.47$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$407.0111858.5%69 W · 49 L+12.7wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+20.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x6b97…8d30backed Sentinels53c834.95$442 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$392.5859554.1%322 W · 273 L+14.5wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd9fe…db0dbacked Disguised46c826.42$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.9828149.8%140 W · 141 L-1.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2bb…3250backed Disguised36c761.94$274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$274.323053.9%124 W · 106 L+4.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7a0f…1305backed Sentinels54c666$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.361,46361.4%899 W · 564 L-19.5wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-2.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93f4…ea90backed Sentinels51c510$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.91,11049%544 W · 566 L+42.0wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+10.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x253e…84e4backed Disguised46c500$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23022746.3%105 W · 122 L+4.3wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5b62…d87fbacked Disguised49c500$245 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24548847.3%231 W · 257 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x5556…2759backed Disguised45c488.27$221 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$221.1562451.4%321 W · 303 L-10.4wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Disguised47c475.8$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.629447.6%140 W · 154 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid+8.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2fcb…78cfbacked Disguised46c463.28$213 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$212.9664749.9%323 W · 324 L-24.9wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b95…b23ebacked Sentinels55c457.69$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.691,02445%461 W · 563 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d87…4e0dbacked Sentinels55c450.91$248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.916854.4%37 W · 31 L+5.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+29.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8c0b…7aa5backed Disguised44c422.81$186 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.041,63040.1%654 W · 976 L+48.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6407…d360backed Disguised48c416.56$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7742143.9%185 W · 236 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Disguised41c413.52$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.541,38937.7%524 W · 865 L-45.7wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-22.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x850b…5493backed Disguised46c400$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.16per pick29cpaid+126.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Disguised33c378.8$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.351,04750.3%527 W · 520 L+37.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-0.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c64…89babacked Disguised45c320.69$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$144.3110749.5%53 W · 54 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc3…f923backed Disguised47c298.51$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.37744.2%34 W · 43 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+34.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3b…5fa5backed Sentinels52c288.11$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.1165063.2%411 W · 239 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick62cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca7c…e994backed Disguised50c282.92$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.461,38545.1%625 W · 760 L-12.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x11ca…2737backed Sentinels59c264.41$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.7111264.3%72 W · 40 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick62cpaid+2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Disguised37c240$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.82,49547.3%1,181 W · 1,314 L-32.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-5.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d14…36fdbacked Disguised47c212.77$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10014346.2%66 W · 77 L+13.0wins+0.09per pick37cpaid+46.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xfa1c…e369backed Sentinels56c209.78$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.7821546%99 W · 116 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-2.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2d40…dd57backed Disguised47c207.43$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.492231.8%7 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb18c…694fbacked Disguised47c204$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.881030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid+49.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa521…d609backed Sentinels60c202$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.441275%9 W · 3 L+1.5wins+0.13per pick62cpaid+18.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6cd3…226ebacked Disguised35c189.67$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.0855628.6%159 W · 397 L-31.8wins-0.06per pick34cpaid-27.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb627…2d13backed Sentinels55c181.82$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.8251552.6%271 W · 244 L-0.9wins0.00per pick53cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb07…e2ccbacked Disguised48c179.29$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.0629738.7%115 W · 182 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-6.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb862…a00dbacked Disguised32c179$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.711850%9 W · 9 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick53cpaid+6.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc754…4b1dbacked Disguised47c174.11$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.8324535.9%88 W · 157 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2da3…f258backed Sentinels77c173.92$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.8497854.4%532 W · 446 L+48.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x54e0…b02cbacked Disguised6c169.16$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.741,13431%352 W · 782 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa042…cba4backed Disguised31c155.9$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.336747.8%32 W · 35 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Disguised35c153.04$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.9331439.8%125 W · 189 L-16.9wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-21.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8f41…260ebacked Disguised48c150$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$723847.4%18 W · 20 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Sentinels54c148$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.0816339.3%64 W · 99 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-8.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1bac…d241backed Disguised45c144.9$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.2120631.6%65 W · 141 L-8.8wins-0.04per pick36cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x536e…4fd5backed Sentinels53c141.34$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.4336151.8%187 W · 174 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+1.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbc81…a635backed Disguised47c138.3$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$651464.3%9 W · 5 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick45cpaid+30%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1e03…27bfbacked Disguised49c137.12$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.191030%3 W · 7 L-2.4wins-0.24per pick54cpaid-49%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Disguised37c135.14$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5038945.2%176 W · 213 L-1.4wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Disguised30c125$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6534742.1%146 W · 201 L-13.1wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-17.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaf19…8869backed Disguised46c117.39$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$545626.8%15 W · 41 L-6.5wins-0.12per pick38cpaid-31%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0a7c…8964backed Sentinels53c107.13$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.3596054.2%520 W · 440 L+16.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d79…0856backed Sentinels61c105$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.34per pick68cpaid-45.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfdd…e70ebacked Disguised48c104$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.9213240.9%54 W · 78 L-7.9wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf69…4fa2backed Disguised46c102.77$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.2776028.9%220 W · 540 L-0.8wins0.00per pick29cpaid+2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf3…d220backed Sentinels50c100.88$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.8815953.5%85 W · 74 L+10.0wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9696…2bc3backed Sentinels54c100$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4615660.9%95 W · 61 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+13.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc22a…8259backed Sentinels51c98.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$48.0438144.6%170 W · 211 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a86…0079backed Sentinels55c90.44$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.712343.9%54 W · 69 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcee6…0a45backed Sentinels52c88$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.2445044.7%201 W · 249 L-29.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-14.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf437…d954backed Disguised32c82$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.24450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-25.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfdfb…9680backed Sentinels53c80.5$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.53764.9%24 W · 13 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick60cpaid+13.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e78…fb29backed Sentinels54c74.07$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.0715559.4%92 W · 63 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+5.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeca9…1799backed Disguised32c67.81$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.721844.5%97 W · 121 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5210…bd53backed Disguised46c65$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.91,31049.2%644 W · 666 L-23.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeeaa…15cebacked Disguised47c63.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3029637.8%112 W · 184 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd52a…6955backed Sentinels55c62.59$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.9966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+18.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x17ef…9a2cbacked Disguised39c60$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.421854.6%119 W · 99 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x100c…edc9backed Disguised47c53.17$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.994452.3%23 W · 21 L+2.2wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+16.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Disguised25c50$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.546452.4%243 W · 221 L+18.2wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa78e…7cbcbacked Sentinels55c45.45$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.4537141.2%153 W · 218 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Disguised45c45$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.252,82541.4%1,169 W · 1,656 L-14.1wins0.00per pick42cpaid-4.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd7e8…65dbbacked Sentinels54c40.74$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.747963.3%50 W · 29 L+3.2wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbadb…a760backed Sentinels54c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.47358.9%43 W · 30 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick58cpaid+7.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1da…3b79backed Sentinels54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.04887.5%7 W · 1 L+2.6wins+0.33per pick55cpaid+65.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd215…1c8ebacked Sentinels54c37.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.042250%11 W · 11 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-6.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4630…35c7backed Sentinels62c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.312151.2%62 W · 59 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b34…a646backed Sentinels66c30.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.382951.7%15 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb4bf…60f8backed Disguised46c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.823842.9%102 W · 136 L-21.1wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-22.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Sentinels55c27.6$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.421,59343.8%697 W · 896 L-74.2wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xeaeb…c2d0backed Sentinels54c27$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.421717.6%3 W · 14 L-5.2wins-0.31per pick48cpaid-66.6%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xdc41…dd7ebacked Disguised47c22$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3454934.8%191 W · 358 L-15.6wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-2.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Lol and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.