Music · resolved market
Will "APT. - Rosé & Bruno Mars" win Best Pop Duo/Group Performance at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x64413aef23f7250b60394d05bf1093c5a79242957de87ed91f7083adfe7112b8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Musicevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,852
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,911
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,852 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Music is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Music | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x168a…da29backed No | 54c | 1,627$881 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$745.67 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ec5…946abacked Yes | 47c | 1,133$528 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.41 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x733d…1ae7backed No | 39c | 999.99$390 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$609.99 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecb1…5da3backed Yes | 61c | 819.56$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.93 | 69 | 43.5%30 W · 39 L | +5.8wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xefac…c9a1backed Yes | 51c | 564.55$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.15 | 162 | 50.6%82 W · 80 L | +11.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfefb…4b5dbacked Yes | 48c | 477.35$228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$228.11 | 41 | 29.3%12 W · 29 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -53%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef52…b4eabacked No | 49c | 405.63$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.01 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Yes | 50c | 398.83$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.01 | 98 | 44.9%44 W · 54 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ed…c077backed No | 49c | 320.92$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163.67 | 55 | 54.5%30 W · 25 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26a9…f6b7backed Yes | 40c | 299.99$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 43cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…2112backed No | 53c | 264.84$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.47 | 22 | 95.5%21 W · 1 L | +6.9wins | +0.31per pick | 64cpaid | +56.2%equal weight | 66+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x425c…4d32backed Yes | 60c | 246.67$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef44…86a5backed Yes | 76c | 208.44$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.76per pick | 76cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 34c | 179.46$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.87 | 462 | 9.7%45 W · 417 L | -4.7wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfae3…5228backed Yes | 60c | 170$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.8wins | +0.30per pick | 54cpaid | +107%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…691fbacked No | 60c | 166$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.95 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +75.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 46c | 132.12$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.39 | 391 | 16.1%63 W · 328 L | -44.4wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -48.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8594…7eedbacked Yes | 45c | 111.81$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 52cpaid | -23%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 41c | 110.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.28 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 20c | 94.83$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.07 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1e…86d3backed No | 35c | 93.61$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.74 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +67.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa511…1011backed Yes | 43c | 93.02$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed No | 62c | 85.84$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 48 | 75%36 W · 12 L | +2.3wins | +0.05per pick | 70cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 43c | 85$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.94 | 146 | 61%89 W · 57 L | +10.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0a50…8ca2backed Yes | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39a5…87f2backed No | 60c | 82$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.8 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Yes | 53c | 68.58$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.09 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa1…d4c8backed Yes | 47c | 67.18$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.41 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ed…b788backed Yes | 60c | 60$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -2.0wins | -0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -86.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x227f…41e3backed Yes | 43c | 60$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5f…b62cbacked Yes | 46c | 50.34$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.29 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb410…7736backed No | 35c | 50.3$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.76 | 73 | 45.2%33 W · 40 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb778…6492backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9afc…145cbacked Yes | 59c | 47.9$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.59per pick | 59cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…3da2backed Yes | 59c | 40.59$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b92…da46backed Yes | 60c | 35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0f…21b3backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.8wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd813…f05cbacked Yes | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033f…618ebacked No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e9c…6216backed No | 70c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8034…d598backed Yes | 45c | 26.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7820…0b73backed No | 47c | 25.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.77 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +112.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Music and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "APT. - Rosé & Bruno Mars" win Best Pop Duo/Group Performance at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?this page
- Will "30 for 30 - SZA featuring Kendrick Lamar" win Best Pop Duo/Group Performance at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will "Defying Gravity - Cynthia Erivo & Ariana Grande" win Best Pop Duo/Group Performance at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?Yes won
- Will "Gabriela - Katseye" win Best Pop Duo/Group Performance at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
- Will "Golden - Huntrix: Ejae, Audrey Nuna & Rei Ami" win Best Pop Duo/Group Performance at the 68th annual GRAMMY Awards?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.